web analytics
September 23, 2014 / 28 Elul, 5774
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘Poll Dates’

Swing States: Obama Ahead Everywhere but N. Carolina

Sunday, September 16th, 2012

There’s only one bit of good news for the Romney campaign in the all-important swing state polls this weekend: their choice to pour a lot of ad money into North Carolina, to prevent it from going Democrat, is paying off.

Everywhere else, the president seems to either keep his lead—small though it may be—or pull ahead.

The polls are yet to reflect voters’ reaction to Obama’s handling of the Middle East storm over the anti-Muslim video clip and the killing of four consulate workers, including the ambassador. It’s possible, however, that Obama’s apparent hesitation in reacting to the upheaval would be balanced out by Romney’s attack on the president while the flames were still consuming the Benghazi mission.

In Virginia, Romney is probably paying for the governor’s attempt to pass a law to make the running of abortion clinics in the state practically impossible. This is not very popular with Virginia women voters, who favor Obama over Romney right now by a margin of 14 points. This explains the significant jump in Obama’s lead in Virginia.

The delegate map I enclosed presumes that Obama and Romney win all the states where they currently lead. It’s only a snapshot, obviously, but it appears that Romney is unable to catch up, so far, and, in a couple of cases—as in Ohio and Colorado—he is losing ground.

 

91612
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/31 – 9/12 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0
Florida 29 8/31 – 9/12 47.8 46.5 Obama +1.3
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 9/10 47.3 43.3 Obama +4.0
North Carolina 15 8/25 – 9/13 49.8 49.8 Romney +4.8
Ohio 18 9/7 – 9/12 48.5 44.3 Obama +4.2
Virginia 13 9/8 – 9/13 47.3 47 Obama +0.3
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

Swing State Report: NC, VA, Leaning Romney

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

You’ll notice that I added North Carolina to the list of swing states. This is because the Romeny camp has declared it as such, probably not a minute too soon. With its 15 delegates, North Carolina broke McCain’s heart in 2008 and went for the Democrats. It’s good to know someone in the Romney camp is doing some thinking.

You’ll also note that Virginia this morning is leaning Republican, but well within the margin of error. Virginia will remain a tight race all the way to November.

We still don’t have a recent, reliable poll on Iowa. There’s only a Democratic campaign poll from 8/23-26, giving Obama 47% vs. 45% to Romney. Iowa also awarded its 7 delegates to Obama in 2008, but, like North Carolina, it should go Republican, all things being equal. Like Indiana, which went for Obama in ’08 (11 delegates). Today, Indiana is leaning Republican, and the universe is that much closer to equilibrium….

So, the swing states are still mostly going to Obama, but with some data seriously missing, and with margins that shouldn’t let the Democrats take a rest, nor fill Republican hearts with despair.

Stay tuned.

 

91212
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/22 – 9/9 48.3 46.3 Obama +2.0
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 15 8/22 – 9/9 45.5 49 Romney +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 9/9 46.5 47.3 Romney +0.8
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
91112
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
91012
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
90912
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/9 – 9/2 47.8 45.5 Obama +2.3
Florida 29 8/13 – 9/2 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/13 – 9/2 46.2 45.5 Obama +0.7
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

 

Swing States Today

Monday, September 10th, 2012

Yesterday we discussed the crucial role swing states will play in our presidential election this year (as in most election years).

Two states have changed in our swing states polls over the weekend, according to Real Clear Politics, the first indication of an Obama bump following the DNC convention. In two swing states, one of them Ohio—very important, Obama has picked up a point or two. A lot of these early poll differences can actually be attributed to shifts and corrections that are related to these new polls being conducted after Labor Day, when folks start to give a hoot.

In other words, it’s possible that Obama didn’t pick up anything in these two states, but that his support was not gauged accurately before. As the system revs up, the scores will start to matter more.

91012




State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
90912




State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/9 – 9/2 47.8 45.5 Obama +2.3
Florida 29 8/13 – 9/2 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/13 – 9/2 46.2 45.5 Obama +0.7
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/yoris-daily-news-clips/swing-states-today/2012/09/10/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: