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April 21, 2014 / 21 Nisan, 5774
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Posts Tagged ‘Poll Dates’

With Romney Stuck Practically Everywhere, It’s Obama’s Race to Lose

Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

New polls in three swing states are pointing to the same general trend of Obama starting to increase the gap between his numbers and Romney’s, most significantly in Virginia, where the president has seen an overnight increase of 2.5%, which, in a swing state, is huge.

Here are the scores from the three swing states with fresh polls:

Colorado: Obama down by 1.3 %, Romney up by 0.5% Florida: Obama stays the same, Romney down by 0.1% Virginia: Obama up by 2.5%, Romney down by 0.8%

National polls are usually less significant than state-by-state polls when it comes to long-term results, but something has happened in the national polls over the past few days which deems consideration: Obama’s favorables have been going through the roof, considering the state of the economy and what many have seen as a weak response by the Administration to attacks on U.S. diplomatic missions in the Arab world and the killing of an ambassador and three State Dept. Employees.

Despite all of the above, Obama’s overall favorable score is now a healthy 50.4% vs. 43.4% unfavorable, a spread of +7.0%.

Romney, on the other hand, is stuck 43.8% for and 43.8% against, a tie which, with seven weeks remaining until election day, could be deadly.

The only source of comfort for the Romney campaign are the right direction/wrong direction polls, where the president gets beaten regularly with numbers that don’t get better than –16%. As of now, the average poll results on the direction of the country are 36.6% right direction, 58.3% wrong direction, a whopping -21.7% spread.

But it appears that the same folks who think Obama’s direction for the country is pretty terrible, are far from being convinced that Romney would present an improvement. In fact, they’re quite convinced he won’t. If the swing states stay as they are today, the Obama/Biden ticket will receive 332 of the delegates to the electoral college, with only 206 going to the Romney/Ryan team.

Incidentally, Obama is trouncing Romney when it comes to safe states. Altogether, the president can count without any doubt (and save his advertising money) on ten states, comprising 142 delegates altogether:

California (55) Delaware (3) District of Columbia (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New York (29) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3).

Romney, on the other hand, while “owning” 13 states, can only squeeze a total of 76 delegates from all of them put together:

Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Nebraska (5) Oklahoma (7) Utah (6) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3).

And the final blow to the Romney campaign: a poll released last week by CBS News and The New York Times showed Obama with a 53% -41% lead among women.

This national average of a 12% lead grows to as much as 14% and 16% among women in states like Virginia, where recent anti-abortion legislation by Republican lawmakers and governors have convinced women that they must vote for Obama despite everything else, to preserve their reproductive rights. The Democrats have been as effective on convincing women Obama will protect their right to an abortion as they have been at warning elderly voters that Ryan will take away their medicate and social security.

Many, both on the left and on the right, have been saying this week that in order to win Romney must score three perfect wins in the coming debates, and run a flawless campaign with zero gaffs.

Well, just for laughs, try plugging “Romney gaffes” in your Google. As of this morning I received 48,600,000 results.

Top suicidal gaffe? “I like being able to fire people who provide services to me.”

Top GW Bush style gaffe? “I believe in an America where millions of Americans believe in an America that’s the America millions of Americans believe in. That’s the America I love.”

And, possibly, a career ending quote, from a May fundraiser, which could be as deadly as Barack Obama’s line back in 2008 about gun toting religious nuts who won’t vote for him: “There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it — that that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what. … These are people who pay no income tax. … [M]y job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”

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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed












Colorado 9 8/31 – 9/17 47.5 45.8 Obama +1.7












Florida 29 9/7 – 9/16 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4












Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2












Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3












New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 9/10 47.3 43.3 Obama +4.0












North Carolina 15 8/25 – 9/13 49.8 49.8 Romney +4.8












Ohio 18 9/7 – 9/12 48.5 44.3 Obama +4.2












Virginia 13 9/8 – 9/16 49 46.2 Obama +0.3












Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4












 

Swing States: Obama Ahead Everywhere but N. Carolina

Sunday, September 16th, 2012

There’s only one bit of good news for the Romney campaign in the all-important swing state polls this weekend: their choice to pour a lot of ad money into North Carolina, to prevent it from going Democrat, is paying off.

Everywhere else, the president seems to either keep his lead—small though it may be—or pull ahead.

The polls are yet to reflect voters’ reaction to Obama’s handling of the Middle East storm over the anti-Muslim video clip and the killing of four consulate workers, including the ambassador. It’s possible, however, that Obama’s apparent hesitation in reacting to the upheaval would be balanced out by Romney’s attack on the president while the flames were still consuming the Benghazi mission.

In Virginia, Romney is probably paying for the governor’s attempt to pass a law to make the running of abortion clinics in the state practically impossible. This is not very popular with Virginia women voters, who favor Obama over Romney right now by a margin of 14 points. This explains the significant jump in Obama’s lead in Virginia.

The delegate map I enclosed presumes that Obama and Romney win all the states where they currently lead. It’s only a snapshot, obviously, but it appears that Romney is unable to catch up, so far, and, in a couple of cases—as in Ohio and Colorado—he is losing ground.

 

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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/31 – 9/12 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0
Florida 29 8/31 – 9/12 47.8 46.5 Obama +1.3
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 9/10 47.3 43.3 Obama +4.0
North Carolina 15 8/25 – 9/13 49.8 49.8 Romney +4.8
Ohio 18 9/7 – 9/12 48.5 44.3 Obama +4.2
Virginia 13 9/8 – 9/13 47.3 47 Obama +0.3
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

Swing State Report: NC, VA, Leaning Romney

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

You’ll notice that I added North Carolina to the list of swing states. This is because the Romeny camp has declared it as such, probably not a minute too soon. With its 15 delegates, North Carolina broke McCain’s heart in 2008 and went for the Democrats. It’s good to know someone in the Romney camp is doing some thinking.

You’ll also note that Virginia this morning is leaning Republican, but well within the margin of error. Virginia will remain a tight race all the way to November.

We still don’t have a recent, reliable poll on Iowa. There’s only a Democratic campaign poll from 8/23-26, giving Obama 47% vs. 45% to Romney. Iowa also awarded its 7 delegates to Obama in 2008, but, like North Carolina, it should go Republican, all things being equal. Like Indiana, which went for Obama in ’08 (11 delegates). Today, Indiana is leaning Republican, and the universe is that much closer to equilibrium….

So, the swing states are still mostly going to Obama, but with some data seriously missing, and with margins that shouldn’t let the Democrats take a rest, nor fill Republican hearts with despair.

Stay tuned.

 

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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/22 – 9/9 48.3 46.3 Obama +2.0
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 15 8/22 – 9/9 45.5 49 Romney +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 9/9 46.5 47.3 Romney +0.8
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/9 – 9/2 47.8 45.5 Obama +2.3
Florida 29 8/13 – 9/2 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/13 – 9/2 46.2 45.5 Obama +0.7
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

 

Swing States Today

Monday, September 10th, 2012

Yesterday we discussed the crucial role swing states will play in our presidential election this year (as in most election years).

Two states have changed in our swing states polls over the weekend, according to Real Clear Politics, the first indication of an Obama bump following the DNC convention. In two swing states, one of them Ohio—very important, Obama has picked up a point or two. A lot of these early poll differences can actually be attributed to shifts and corrections that are related to these new polls being conducted after Labor Day, when folks start to give a hoot.

In other words, it’s possible that Obama didn’t pick up anything in these two states, but that his support was not gauged accurately before. As the system revs up, the scores will start to matter more.

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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
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State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/9 – 9/2 47.8 45.5 Obama +2.3
Florida 29 8/13 – 9/2 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/13 – 9/2 46.2 45.5 Obama +0.7
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/yoris-daily-news-clips/swing-states-today/2012/09/10/

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