According to the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza between May 1 and 4, only half of the Arab respondents believe Hamas’s decision to launch the October 7 attack was “correct,” with support even lower in the Gaza Strip. Growing fears that the war will spill into Judea and Samaria, worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza, and diminishing hopes for a near-term ceasefire may have contributed to these results, trends also reflected in the previous poll conducted by PSR seven months ago.
Despite declining support for the October 7 attack, a majority of Arabs in the liberated territories still believe the massacre, with its atrocities against innocent Jews and the ensuing war, has brought the “Palestinian cause” to the forefront of international attention. However, unlike in past polls, most respondents now say they do not believe Hamas will win the war. Still, a plurality believes Hamas will remain in control of the Gaza Strip after the conflict ends.
Gazans are evenly divided over recent anti-Hamas protests in the Strip, though most believe these demonstrations are driven by outside influences. They are also split on whether they would choose to emigrate from Gaza after the war.
On internal political dynamics, Marwan Barghouti remains the most popular leader. While calls for PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’s resignation remain strong, they have declined slightly. Hamas’s popularity has dipped, while Fatah’s support remains stable. Backing for a two-state solution is unchanged. Notably, support for armed struggle is falling, while support for negotiations is on the rise.
HERE ARE THE KEY FINDINGS:
Humanitarian conditions: There has been a significant decline in the percentage of Gazans who have access to food, and more than half say they have lost a family member during the war. The majority of Gazans blame Israel and the US first for their suffering, and only a small minority blames Hamas first.
Support for the attack on October 7: Findings show a decline in the overall support for the October 7 Hamas atrocities. The decline is seen in both the PA and the Gaza Strip. Almost 90% of the Arab public believes Hamas men did not commit the atrocities depicted in videos taken on that day.
Ceasefire and who comes out the winner: A little over half of respondents expect Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement soon. The pollsters asked which side would emerge victorious in this war, and a plurality thinks it will be Hamas but the percentage is much smaller in the Gaza Strip than in the PA.
Who will control Gaza after the war: A plurality expects Hamas to remain in control over the Gaza Strip after the war. That percentage is smaller in Gaza, standing at a little over one quarter. As to the return of the PA to control the Gaza Strip after a ceasefire, 40% expressed support. Support for the PA’s return is higher in the Gaza Strip than in the PA. The idea of an Arab security deployment in Gaza to assist the PA security forces is opposed by almost two-thirds of the public.
Anti-Hamas demonstrations in the Gaza Strip: Gazans are split almost down the middle, for and against the recent anti-Hamas demonstrations in the Gaza Strip. Nonetheless, most Gazans think the demonstrations are driven and motivated by outside hands.
Demands for the release of the hostages and the disarmament of Hamas: The overwhelming majority of respondents believe that the war will not end and Israel will not withdraw from the Gaza Strip if Hamas agrees to disarm. Similarly, the overwhelming majority disagree with the view that if Hamas releases the hostages, Israel will end the war and withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Perhaps this is why the overwhelming majority is opposed to a Hamas disarmament or the departure of its military leadership from the Gaza Strip.
Trump’s and Israeli calls for displacing Gazans: While the majority says it does not want to leave the Gaza Strip after the war ends, a large minority wants to do that. Similarly, about half of Gazans are willing to apply to Israel to help them emigrate to other countries via Israeli ports and airports.
Support for terrorist factions: support for Hamas declines by 4 points while support for Fatah remains unchanged. The decline in support for Hamas came from the PA. Support for Fatah is higher in the Gaza Strip than in the PA, and support for Hamas is also higher in the Gaza Strip than in the PA. In both areas, support for Hamas is higher than the support for Fatah.
Support for various leaders: If presidential elections were held between three candidates, Marwan Barghouti of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, and Khalid Mishal of Hamas, Barghouti would receive 50% of the vote, followed by Mishal and Abbas.
Demand for the resignation of Chairman Abbas: About 1 in 5 respondents are satisfied with the performance of Chairman Abbas and 81% want him to resign.
Support for the two-state solution: Support for the concept of the two-state solution remains stable, with 4 out of 10 respondents supporting it. Support for a Palestinian state rises to more than 60% when it is not linked to the “two-state solution” and when the borders of the state are identified as those of 1967. Pollsters asked about the public support for three possible solutions to the conflict: the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, the solution of a confederation between the two states of Palestine and Israel, and a one-state solution in which the Jews and Palestinians live with equality, and the biggest support went to the two-state solution, slightly less than half, followed by the confederation and the one-state solution.
Support for Armed struggle: Pollsters presented respondents with three ways to end the “Israeli occupation” and establish an independent Palestinian state and asked them to choose the most effective one: 4 out of 10 supported armed struggle, one third supported negotiations; and one fifth supported popular peaceful resistance. The findings indicate a significant decrease in support for armed struggle.
The sample size of this survey was 1270 people, of whom 830 were interviewed face-to-face in 83 residential locations in Judea and Samaria, and 440 in 44 locations in the Gaza Strip. The margin of error is +/-3.5%.
