The head of research at the IDF Intelligence Division, Brigadier General Amit Sa’ar, is retiring after being diagnosed recently with a malignant tumor that requires immediate treatment, the IDF reported Thursday morning.
On March 13, Brigadier General Sa’ar declared he would retire from his post after the conclusion of the investigations into the negligence that led to the massacre of October 7, 2023. “As soon as the investigation is finished, the ones who will rebuild everything in military intelligence will be other commanders,” he said.
Now it appears that the IDF brass is hell-bent on replacing one conceptzia intelligence researcher with his doppelgänger.
Brigadier General (Ret.) Itai Brun, who served as the head of the Israel Defense Intelligence (IDI) Analysis Division from June 2011 to January 2015, will be recalled by his country to assume the burden. His years in office were marked by the efforts of two chiefs of staff, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, to cut the standing military in half, eliminate the armored corps almost completely, and rely mostly on technology and a burgeoning air force against Israel’s enemies.
CONCEPTZIA, ANYONE?
In 2018, Itai Brun wrote a lengthy article titled, “Intelligence Analysis – Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes,” which was published by the Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, which is part of ITC. In other words, the incubator of the conceptzia. Here is an excerpt (p.49):
“Vis-a-vis Israel, Hamas is generally sticking to a policy of calm as its main interest but continues to engage in force buildup ahead of a future confrontation with Israel (particularly in terms of rockets and offensive tunnels). In practice, the diversification of notions in the Gaza Strip and a string of violent clashes led to a reality of rounds of escalations varying in intensity and frequency, culminating in IDF Operations Pillar of Defense (November 2012) and Protective Edge (July-August 2014). After IDF Operation Protective Edge, calm has been maintained in the Gaza Strip for a period of over two years.”
And this example of delusional thinking:
“The changes in the employment of the IDF force to some extent reflect a transition from the maneuver approach to the attrition approach and they have a bearing on intelligence. The rise of the new generations of enemies has led to the conclusion that these lack classic centers of gravity, to which the effort for decisive victory can be directed. This has led quickly to the choice, conscious or not, of the attrition modus operandi as the preferred method for fighting organizations like Hizballah and Hamas. Nonetheless, in recent years it has been gradually becoming clear that Israel has adopted a more complex doctrine that aspires to combine both methods.”
But, of course, it didn’t. Israel remained in a reactive mode, thanks to its intelligence officers, like Itai Brun, who insisted “calm has been maintained in the Gaza Strip.”
THE REAL DANGER IS CHANNEL 14
On April 5, 2023, Brun was interviewed by Haaretz and identified Israel’s existential problems not as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, but the right-wing TV Channel 14 (The great danger is that Channel 14 will enter into the national security discussions. This is a huge, existential danger).
Speaking with the conviction of an intelligence officer whose evaluations had yet to bring on the murder and molestation of 1,200 innocent Israelis, Brun waxed professional:
“I call it politicians from Venus, professional rank from Mars. These are really two different worlds. We choose politicians because they are ideologues, and it is really impossible to deny the political, ideological, and even personal aspects of national security. But they meet a professional level, which by the way also has biases and agendas. In the end, in this complex space, with the different needs, desires, and ethos, you have to make decisions that relate to reality.”
The man who gave us October 7 continued: “The world has always been complicated, different people have always had different interests, and the intelligence and professional ranks have been wrong many times over the years, but in liberal Western democracies they managed to create some sort of balance.
“The intelligence officers presented to the politicians a combination of facts and estimates, and together it was possible to find out the reality, examine options, and make decisions. What happened is that beliefs and feelings entered this room that became stronger than facts, and now the question is how to restore this balance.”
Do you get how completely out of touch with reality this man of facts was?
And then the man who helped mislead the best army in the Middle East into a corner from which it has yet to release itself, announced brazenly:
“We all prefer to consume the information that suits us. The greatest danger is that this will also happen in the rooms of national security. That Channel 14 will enter these rooms. That the leadership will choose the experts who will tell it what it wants to hear. This is a huge danger. Existential.”
Now this man whose intelligence career was marred by the most terrifying failure since Hasidic rabbis told their flock they should stay in Europe in the 1930s and 40s, will run things again in military intelligence.
Best of luck to Brigadier General Itai Brun and to all of us, Lord knows we’ll need it.
