web analytics
July 5, 2015 / 18 Tammuz, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post


‘Moderate’ Rouhani Misled West, Sneaked in Centrifuges?

The reactor is to be brought online in 2014, according to Iran’s projection.
moderate nuclear iran

How many centrifuges did IAEA think were installed and/or in operation?  Good question.  In October 2003, Iran finalized the installation of the first 164-centrifuge cascade at the PFEP – presumably what Rouhani refers to as Iran having “150 centrifuges” when he took over the nuclear-negotiating job.

IAEA was able to verify the installation of a second 164-centrifuge cascade at the PFEP by October 2006 – an event indicating a much, much lower centrifuge total than 1,700 or 3,000.

In its February 2006 report, linked above, IAEA regretted the lack of transparency in the Iranian nuclear program, which made it difficult to resolve questions about its nature (emphasis added):

Without full transparency that extends beyond the formal legal requirements of the Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol — transparency that could only be achieved through Iran’s active cooperation — the Agency’s ability to reconstruct the history of Iran’s past programme and to verify the correctness and completeness of the statements made by Iran, particularly with regard to its centrifuge enrichment programme, will be limited, and questions about the past and current direction of Iran’s nuclear programme will continue to be raised.

IAEA basically had its November 2004 baseline for centrifuges at the PFEP to work with during this period.  It did not have a good handle on what was going on in the larger FEP, nor did it have the slightest idea what was going on in the underground facilities at Esfahan, where extensive tunneling activities were revealed in late 2004.  IAEA visited an underground chamber at Esfahan in November 2004, but it was empty at the time.  IAEA has not visited Esfahan’s underground complex since, nor has it ever been allowed to visit the vast underground network identified at Natanz by 2007.

Tunnels at Esfahan, Feb 2005 (Annotations: Institute for Science and International Security/ISIS)

Tunnels at Esfahan, Feb 2005 (Annotations: Institute for Science and International Security/ISIS)

IAEA’s lack of information continued throughout 2006.  Another Safeguards report refers to centrifuge operations on 23 May 2007, 21 months after August 2005.  In May 2007, IAEA registered this lament (emphasis added):

Since early 2006, the Agency has not received the type of information that Iran had previously been providing, including pursuant to the Additional Protocol, for example information relevant to the assembly of centrifuges, the manufacture of centrifuge components or associated equipment and research and development of centrifuges or enrichment techniques.

But in this report, at least, IAEA was finally able to give some numbers on the centrifuge cascades in the FEP at Natanz:

On 13 May 2007, eight 164-machine cascades were operating simultaneously and were being fed with UF6; two other similar cascades had been vacuum tested and three more were under construction.

The centrifuge total from this layout would come to 1,312, operational and being fed with UF6.  That’s below the total Rouhani cites for a timeframe of 21 months earlier, although it is not fully clear from the translation what status Rouhani assigns to the centrifuges he talks about.  Does he mean the 1,700 were installed and operational by August 2005, when he departed his nuclear-negotiating job?  Or does he mean their manufacture and delivery were completed?  What about the 3,000 by the end of 2005?  If his starting number – 150 – means the same thing as his ending numbers, then he is, in fact, referring to operational centrifuges, and not just the number of finished machines on-hand.  But we can’t conclude that as an indisputable interpretation.

The long march of gaps in knowledge

In any case, IAEA can’t help us with this question, because it just didn’t know.  The May 2007 observation concludes a period in which the comprehensive timeline looks like this:

Oct 2003 – 164 centrifuges begin operating at the PFEP

Oct 2004 – Suspicious tunneling begins at Esfahan

Nov 2004 – IAEA’s last baseline inventory of Iranian UF6 and centrifuges/parts

Nov 2004 – Last/only IAEA visit to underground chamber at Esfahan

Aug 2005 – NCRI announces Iran has produced approximately 4,000 centrifuges and plans to install them in secret

Aug 2005 – According to Rouhani, the nuclear program had 1,700 centrifuges

Dec 2005 – According to Rouhani, the nuclear program had 3,000 centrifuges

About the Author: J.E. Dyer is a retired US Naval intelligence officer who served around the world, afloat and ashore, from 1983 to 2004.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “‘Moderate’ Rouhani Misled West, Sneaked in Centrifuges?”

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Future guard? Arab child with Hamas headband aims toy rifle on the Temple Mount after prayers in the Al Aqsa mosque.
CNN Promotes Old City on Verge of Extinction Due to ‘Political Tension’
Latest Indepth Stories
Obama was all smiles for Israel's Ambassador Oren when they met in the White House.

US Jews prefer to be like their non-Jewish liberal friends complaining about “settlements” and Bibi

New Israel Fund and the UN

New Israel Fund & its supporters must be countered; Israel’s in the midst of an unprecedented storm

An ISIS Gaza rocket launcher.

PM Netanyahu this week identified ISIS and Iran as Israel’s primary threat. It is a planetary threat that carries the promise of peace.

U.S. postage stamp honoring Haym Solomon.

Haym Solomon, overlooked hero of the Revolutionary War, was America’s “Funding Father.”

Latvia, July 4, 1941 they forced many Jews in the shul putting it on fire; everyone was burned alive

There’s blood on the reporters’ hands AND New Israel Fund for funding groups feeding lies to the UN

Respect & appreciation for our country is not only a civic value but an essential Jewish one as well

When words lose meaning, the world becomes an Orwellian dystopia; a veritable Tower of Babel

Israel, like the non-radical Islamic world. will be happy see the ISIS beheaded for once.

Kids shouldn’t have “uninstructed” Internet access, better to train them how to use it responsibly

What if years from now, IS were to control substantial territory? What world havoc would that wreak?

Rambam writes the verse’s double term refers to 2 messiahs: first King David; 2nd the final Mashiach

The Gaza flotilla has been rightfully and legally blocked by Israel’s Navy, with greetings from Bibi

The president described the attack as “an act that drew on a long history of bombs and arson and shots fired at churches, not random, but as a means of control, a way to terrorize and oppress…”

“The only [candidate] that’s going to give real support to Israel is me,” said the 69-year-old Trump.

More Articles from J. E. Dyer
Iran Shahed, with stern decked out in Yemeni flags. Iranian flag flies from traditional position on center fantail.

Activists from US, France, Germany & from Iran’s media are aboard because the ship’s a cause célèbre

Pope Francis in Jerusalem on May 26. 2014.

“…the Pope did the exact opposite of what the media reported: he urged Abbas to change his ways.”

The world’s more vulnerable to predation, eruption, and chaos than it has been in at least 600 years

Iran stands unopposed by the “international community” and is racing to assert regional dominance.

The S-300 poses a major problem; Israel will have to get creative as to if, when & where it strikes

In the last weeks of the talks the US excluded every other delegation from negotiations with Iran.

Israel has never invoked the agreement, but Israel sources say that its importance lies in its very existence.

The Senate formed a bipartisan panel investigating money from the Obama adm. to an anti-Bibi group

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/j-e-dyer/moderate-rouhani-misled-west-sneaked-in-centrifuges/2013/08/11/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: