web analytics
April 2, 2015 / 13 Nisan, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post


‘Moderate’ Rouhani Misled West, Sneaked in Centrifuges?

The reactor is to be brought online in 2014, according to Iran’s projection.
moderate nuclear iran

How many centrifuges did IAEA think were installed and/or in operation?  Good question.  In October 2003, Iran finalized the installation of the first 164-centrifuge cascade at the PFEP – presumably what Rouhani refers to as Iran having “150 centrifuges” when he took over the nuclear-negotiating job.

IAEA was able to verify the installation of a second 164-centrifuge cascade at the PFEP by October 2006 – an event indicating a much, much lower centrifuge total than 1,700 or 3,000.

In its February 2006 report, linked above, IAEA regretted the lack of transparency in the Iranian nuclear program, which made it difficult to resolve questions about its nature (emphasis added):

Without full transparency that extends beyond the formal legal requirements of the Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol — transparency that could only be achieved through Iran’s active cooperation — the Agency’s ability to reconstruct the history of Iran’s past programme and to verify the correctness and completeness of the statements made by Iran, particularly with regard to its centrifuge enrichment programme, will be limited, and questions about the past and current direction of Iran’s nuclear programme will continue to be raised.

IAEA basically had its November 2004 baseline for centrifuges at the PFEP to work with during this period.  It did not have a good handle on what was going on in the larger FEP, nor did it have the slightest idea what was going on in the underground facilities at Esfahan, where extensive tunneling activities were revealed in late 2004.  IAEA visited an underground chamber at Esfahan in November 2004, but it was empty at the time.  IAEA has not visited Esfahan’s underground complex since, nor has it ever been allowed to visit the vast underground network identified at Natanz by 2007.

Tunnels at Esfahan, Feb 2005 (Annotations: Institute for Science and International Security/ISIS)

Tunnels at Esfahan, Feb 2005 (Annotations: Institute for Science and International Security/ISIS)

IAEA’s lack of information continued throughout 2006.  Another Safeguards report refers to centrifuge operations on 23 May 2007, 21 months after August 2005.  In May 2007, IAEA registered this lament (emphasis added):

Since early 2006, the Agency has not received the type of information that Iran had previously been providing, including pursuant to the Additional Protocol, for example information relevant to the assembly of centrifuges, the manufacture of centrifuge components or associated equipment and research and development of centrifuges or enrichment techniques.

But in this report, at least, IAEA was finally able to give some numbers on the centrifuge cascades in the FEP at Natanz:

On 13 May 2007, eight 164-machine cascades were operating simultaneously and were being fed with UF6; two other similar cascades had been vacuum tested and three more were under construction.

The centrifuge total from this layout would come to 1,312, operational and being fed with UF6.  That’s below the total Rouhani cites for a timeframe of 21 months earlier, although it is not fully clear from the translation what status Rouhani assigns to the centrifuges he talks about.  Does he mean the 1,700 were installed and operational by August 2005, when he departed his nuclear-negotiating job?  Or does he mean their manufacture and delivery were completed?  What about the 3,000 by the end of 2005?  If his starting number – 150 – means the same thing as his ending numbers, then he is, in fact, referring to operational centrifuges, and not just the number of finished machines on-hand.  But we can’t conclude that as an indisputable interpretation.

The long march of gaps in knowledge

In any case, IAEA can’t help us with this question, because it just didn’t know.  The May 2007 observation concludes a period in which the comprehensive timeline looks like this:

Oct 2003 – 164 centrifuges begin operating at the PFEP

Oct 2004 – Suspicious tunneling begins at Esfahan

Nov 2004 – IAEA’s last baseline inventory of Iranian UF6 and centrifuges/parts

Nov 2004 – Last/only IAEA visit to underground chamber at Esfahan

Aug 2005 – NCRI announces Iran has produced approximately 4,000 centrifuges and plans to install them in secret

Aug 2005 – According to Rouhani, the nuclear program had 1,700 centrifuges

Dec 2005 – According to Rouhani, the nuclear program had 3,000 centrifuges

About the Author: J.E. Dyer is a retired US Naval intelligence officer who served around the world, afloat and ashore, from 1983 to 2004.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “‘Moderate’ Rouhani Misled West, Sneaked in Centrifuges?”

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Desperate crowd awaits relief aid at Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus.
ISIS Raids Palestinian Camp and Begins to Fulfill Netanyahu’s Prophecy
Latest Indepth Stories
Colonel John Henry Patterson, Commander of the Jewish Legion

An eye-witness claimed, “British troops just stood by” while Arab attacked Jews in then Palestine

Indeed, some caucus members based their decision to stay away from Mr. Netanyahu’s speech on their contention that the Israeli leader had disrespected America’s first black president.

These are fundamental issues for Israel’s security and yet Mr. Abbas refuses even to acknowledge them as grist for negotiations.

Those seeking accounting, finance, business, healthcare, technology, etc., will often enter a specialized graduate degree “track” created by Lakewood’s Professional Career Services, in conjunction with local institutions of higher education, for our alumni.

We are grateful to Hashem that we have been privileged to institute this program and that over the years we have experienced tremendous siyata d’shmaya, with the program spreading throughout the world and its membership rapidly rising.

Indifference to the pain of the many singles should require us to have our heart, not head, examined

The rededication of the Hurva caused international hysteria.Arabs called the action a “provocation”

{Originally posted to author’s website, FirstOne Through} TRUST Trust is the bedrock of a functional relationship. It enables one party to rely on the other. A trust that includes both intention and capability permits a sharing of responsibility and workload. The relationship between US President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu started off badly and further […]

Jabotinsky said “Go To Hell” was a good retort to opponents of the Jewish people; fitting for Obama.

Obama pulled off one of US history’s greatest cons,twice fooling a gullible electorate and most Jews

While in Auschwitz I felt a tangible intensity. I could sense that I was in a place of sheer evil.

Obama needs to wake up. The real enemy is not Netanyahu but Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,IS

My beliefs & actions have led to numerous death threats against me; my excommunication by my church

In November 2014, Islamic Relief Worldwide was classified as a terrorist organization by the United Arab Emirates.

More Articles from J. E. Dyer
An oil tanker off Haifa's coast.

Israel has never invoked the agreement, but Israel sources say that its importance lies in its very existence.

McCaskill-McCain

The Senate formed a bipartisan panel investigating money from the Obama adm. to an anti-Bibi group

Bibi built the case for stopping Iran and showed there are more choices than “A Deal” or “Attack”

Making this deal with Iran would, in fact, guarantee an explosion of countermoves in the region.

An Israeli strike could theoretically damage Iran’s nuclear program; only US can terminate program

Obama’s Syrian policy failures created the current situation in the Golan Heights.

Remnants of Assad’s nuclear program are alive and well, under the control of Hezbollah and Iran

Under Obama, US foreign policy is losing sanity & common sense in diplomatic representation abroad

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/j-e-dyer/moderate-rouhani-misled-west-sneaked-in-centrifuges/2013/08/11/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: