A huge Direct Polls mandates survey that was broadcast Saturday night on News14 reveals a significant change in Israel’s political map. While the coalition parties appear to recover and are climbing in the polls, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, currently the largest opposition faction, is diving and standing on the cusp of single-digit representation. Meanwhile, Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beiteinu soars to third place in the Knesset, followed closely by Shas and Otzma Yehudit.
Another shocker: Balad, the vehemently anti-Israeli party that used to hover for a few years now below the 3.25% threshold vote, for the first time, received 4 mandates. And hadash-Ta’al, which regularly collected 5 mandates, sinks below the threshold, as does Labor (which is used to this humiliation by now).
The survey was conducted on February 27, 2024, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 20,839 adults (18+) who are a representative sample of the general population in Israel. The statistical sampling error is ± 1.2% at 95% probability. In other words, the most reliable survey in Israel, bar none.
The results:
COALITION PARTIES
Likud – 24
Shas – 10
Otzma Yehudit – 10
United Torah Judaism – 8
Religious Zionism – 5
Total: 57
OPPOSITION PARTIES (ZIONIST)
National Camp – 27
Israel Beiteinu – 11
Yesh Atid – 10
Meretz – 6
Total: 54
ARABS
Ra’am – 5
Balad – 4
Total: 9
The survey is the biggest indication so far of the Israeli voter’s return to the right. It should be noted that Gantz’s 27 mandates include a segment that supports Gantz’s partner, Gideon Sa’ar, who has been stating his eagerness to return to a Netanyahu-led coalition. This could mean that Netanyahu’s coalition could rely once more on 60+ mandates come the new elections.
