Photo Credit: Hadas Parush/Flash90
Israelis pose for a picture wearing masks of PM and wife Sara Netanyahu in a Purim supplies store in Jerusalem, March 5, 2019.

The right-wing bloc has grown to 61 seats and will be able to forge a majority government, according to a survey published by Kan News Wednesday morning. The survey was conducted online on March 5 by Kantar, using 543 respondents out of 1,528 who were contacted, with a +/- 4.4% sampling error.

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According to the poll, the Likud party is up again, with 30 seats, compared with 29 in the previous poll, and the Blue & White party is down to 35 seats from the 37 it had on Friday.

There’s also a surprise: Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party passes the electoral threshold for the first time (in conventional polls) and gets four Knesset seats.

The math favors Netanyahu once again:

Likud – 30
United Torah Judaism – 7
New Right – 5
Shas – 5
Kahlon – 5
Right Union – 5

Feiglin is a floating vote in this instance, because he has declared emphatically that he conditioned joining any coalition government on the legalization of cannabis, and at least two right-wing parties have declared their against legalization. So Bibi can count on 57 seats.

Gantz/Lapid have a more complex math:

Blue & White – 35
Labor – 7
Meretz – 5

That’s 47 seats. Will Feiglin join a coalition government supported by the Arabs? Only if Gantz gives him the two portfolios he wants: Finance and Education.

Will the Arabs with their 12 votes support this coalition? Possibly, if it promises a Palestinian State. Will Feiglin stay in a government that gives up a portion of Eretz Israel? Most likely not. So there you have it – with Feiglin in, the picture becomes blurrier by a half.

Avigdor Liberman and Orly Levy-Abekasis do not pass the 3.25% vote threshold. It should be noted that one of them (not Orly) was the genius behind the decision to raise the threshold.

The survey also found that 30% of the public believe that Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to file an indictment, subject to a hearing, against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reduces the chances that they would vote Likud.

58% said the attorney general’s decision would not affect their vote.

12% said the chances of their voting Likud increased.

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