(1) It must adapt to Islam. He describes “the religious nature” of the Middle East as “one of the most important factors” affecting the region’s politics. Islam makes democracy there so different from its Western prototype that it “may bear little resemblance” to the original. Therefore, it “is not necessarily going to evolve upon a Western template” but “will have its own shape or form coupled with stronger religious ties.”
Those religious ties mean that Middle Eastern democracy cannot be secular; separating mosque and state is “unlikely to be favorably received by the vast majority of Middle Easterners,” who are devout Muslims. Rather, democracy must be established “upon Islamic beliefs” and “sustain the religious base.” The executive, legislative, and judicial branches all must “take Islamic beliefs into consideration when carrying out their duties.” Presumably, this translates into the Islamic authorities under President Sisi reviewing proposed laws to safeguard Islamic values, regardless of what the majority of voters wants.
(2) The West should help, but not interfere. The West looms large for Sisi, who fears its negative influence even as he seeks its support.
He has many worries: The great powers want a democracy resembling Western institutions rather than accepting a democracy “founded on Islamic beliefs.” He interprets the then-named global war on terror as “really just a mask for establishing Western democracy in the Middle East.” To meet their energy needs, Westerners “attempt to influence and dominate the region.” The wars they started in Iraq and Afghanistan need to be resolved before democracy can take root. Support for Israel raises suspicions about their motives.
Sisi’s major concern is U.S. rejection of democracies that “may not be sympathetic to Western interests.” He demands that the West not interfere when its adversaries win elections: “The world cannot demand democracy in the Middle East, yet denounce what it looks like because a less than pro-Western party legitimately assumes office.” Translation: Do not call President Sisi anti-democratic when he pursues policies Washington dislikes.
Sisi shows red ink on his finger after voting in the election in which it was reported he received 97 percent of the vote. He has written that democracy in the Middle East “is not necessarily going to evolve upon a Western template” but “will have … stronger religious ties.” |
But the peoples of the Middle East also need the West. In the economic arena, they are unlikely to succeed “without external support from Western democracies.” Accordingly, he pleads for the U.S. government to assist “supportive economic nations in the Middle East, such as Egypt.” President Sisi wants American taxpayers to continue footing his bills.
The West is also the answer, in Sisi’s view, to the sycophantic and unaccountable Middle East media. “If corruption exists in the government, it is likely to go unreported.” Therefore, he wants those in power “to let go of controlling the media.” To build a superior press, Sisi looks to the West, specifically to international news organizations and to governments. Inasmuch as President Sisi quickly intimidated the Egyptian media into obsequiousness as soon as he assumed office, it is good to know that, in principle, he appreciates a free press. Westerners who meet with him should unceasingly remind him of this.
(3) Giving the people more responsibility. Democracy does not emerge on its own, Sisi asserts, but “needs a good environment—like a reasonable economic situation, educated people, and a moderate understanding of religious issues.” The problem in Egypt is that, “the nature of the population has been one of dependence upon and favor from the government.” How to break this dependence? “Education and the media are the key enablers toward the establishment of democracy; there must be a shift from state controlled means to population controlled means.” Gen. Sisi understood that Egypt needs a politically mature citizenry, but will President Sisi permit it to emerge?
Sisi has made himself the mortal enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood while allying with the yet more extreme Salafis. |
Examining his three preconditions, the first two give Sisi as ruler the freedom to act anti-democratically. Only the third component would, in fact, help bring about democracy.
The Middle East as a Unified Region
One unexpected theme that emerges from his paper concerns Sisi’s (possibly neo-Nasserist) hope that the Middle East becomes a single unit: “the Middle East should organize as a region.” He wants the Middle East (an area he does not define; one wonders whether Israel would be included) to view itself “much in the same manner as the European Union,” implying a customs union, a single currency, freedom of cross-border movement, and a joint foreign policy. He offers this as a goal of free elections: “Democracy in the Middle East … must find a unifying theme that draws the Middle East into a unified region.”