Obama Wins Close National Vote, Mandate Denied, US Future Dim
Latest update: November 8th, 2012
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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney conceded the race on Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2012.
Photo Credit: YY
It hasn’t been a long night. Around 10 PM Eastern, someone on one of the channels I had been following said that President Obama’s motorcade was getting ready to take him to his election center, in Chicago. It meant that the Democrats were certain about their presidential win.
I could feel the anguish emanating from our own chat line here, at the JewishPress.com. I was hearing similar cries of woe from a few open Skype lines on my desktop. Towards the end there, I think many of us started believing that a Romney win was a real possibility. A Dick Morris prediction of a Romney landslide win we ran here got close to 30 thousand page views in half a day. Regardless of its very loose connection to reality on this planet, the story expressed the yearnings of so many who flocked to our website in search of a voice to reflect their own.
The Democrats have retained control over the Senate, with 51 seats plus two independents. Not the kind of numbers that can break a filibuster. The Republicans will keep the House, with a net loss in the single digits. This means Obama had no coat tails whatsoever in this election. He barely got over the hedge himself. He has won better than 300 delegates to the Electoral College, but that does not mean that he received a mandate from the people. He won by a squeak.
I believe the Republicans have achieved their most basic goal this time around, namely, that their presidential candidate—who was destined to lose to an incumbent—wouldn’t perform so atrociously that his defeat would coat-tail the Republican House with it down in flames. Remember Governor Perry? Speaker Gingrich? Congresswoman Michele Bachmann? So Romney delivered the bare minimum that was expected of him: Don’t make matters even worse. That was the reason the party leaders, along with the Bush clan and Karl Rove were so adamant about supporting Romney – they and the billion dollar budget they brought in with them.
The fact that Romney almost won the presidency while he was at it was above and beyond their initial expectations. I think Romney spent much of the campaign playing to tie rather than win. It was only when he met the enemy in the first debate and drew blood that he realized he could actually make it. That’s my hunch.
Political Science majors should take note of the miracle performed by Obama Tuesday. Until this year, no incumbent president since FDR in 1940 has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2%. Well, Obama has broken the mold, winning despite unemployment hovering at between 7.6 and 7.9%. This means there were additional circumstances that weighed in his favor. I believe two factors were in play:
1. America is losing its White majority. It is sinking fast, and this year it is 72.4% White. Back in 2000, it was 75.1% white (In 2011, White new births were outnumbered by non-White 50.5% to 49.5%). Since Romney lost by such a small margin (roughly a million votes nationwide), it means that had this election been held in 2004—all other things staying the same—it would have been a Republican victory.
A good friend suggested to me early Tuesday morning that the Republicans were experiencing the broken glass effect, meaning they would crawl over broken glass to vote their choice, that’s how much they hated Obama. But my wife commented that, judging by the images of long lines of African American and Hispanic voters standing in line in Florida, Virginia and Ohio, it appears they, too, would be perfectly willing to take the crunch. That’s how much they feared Romney.
2. The Republican Party has to regain the center for real. Let’s face it, Romney was working hard to appear like a benign centrist, but you can’t be against the Dream Act and against abortion rights in this country and hope to be considered a centrist. I’m afraid that with its zeal to embrace the authentic Tea Party candidates, the Evangelicals, and the NRA crowd, the GOP has edged out the last of its liberal and moderate stars. This works well for the red states and even for local races in many blue states, but if the GOP wants to govern, it has to rediscover its businessmen/women, its bankers and its moderate intellectuals, or it won’t stand a chance to win presidential politics ever again.
Obama has won, for the second time, both Florida and Virginia, two states with total Republican domination over local politics. This means that the same voters who trust a Republican for governor and other state offices do not trust a right-wing Republican for president.
To remind you, President GW Bush had solid support from the Hispanic voters, largely because of his sane immigration policies. But Romney didn’t have very encouraging things to say to Hispanics on amnesty, etc., plus several South-Western Republican officials were hedging their own careers on antagonizing their Hispanic citizens and visitors, making the GOP in general a most unpopular brand over there.
What does all of the above mean for the Jews? I think the U.S. economy will not be coming back any time soon. Blame Bush 2, blame Obama, blame Wall Street, blame China, it doesn’t really matter. Our annual GDP growth is 1.7%. It’s a depressing rate suggesting that, after four years since the big crash, most businesses are still hesitating to move forward. It means banks are still hesitating to trust potential borrowers. As a result, new jobs are not being created and the number of people receiving their income from government entitlement programs is increasing alarmingly.
It’s not the end of the world, the U.S. economy is big enough to recover from this depression/recession – but, sadly, not with this president. Unless Obama finds a new, creative way he hasn’t thought of until now, to generate new confidence in the hearts and minds of decision makers in business and industry, we should expect more of the same: a sluggish, increasingly desperate crawl through the mud.
The truth is I’m less concerned about the fate of the State of Israel under Obama’s second term than I am about my Jewish brothers and sisters in America. I trust that the IDF—with God’s help—is good enough to defend the Jewish state with or without a very friendly U.S. president.
I don’t think the next four years will be fun for anyone in America, but for us, mostly right-wing, professionals and small business traditional Jews, it’s going to be sad and even a little scary.
A Romney win would have signaled a cultural change. I may not love everything about Mormons, but they don’t get drunk, they give to charity, and they have a lot of children whom they raise in loving families. I could think of worse presidential role models.
The U.S. president always marks the center. Everyone else is either to the left or to the right of him. That’s why I’m so anxious for a moderate-Republican as president, because he encourages centrist thinking. I thought that GW Bush was way too far to the right, without a broad mandate to do so. I think Obama has pulled the center over to the left by almost the same measure – except he hasn’t been as brash about it.
Back in 2008, I had tears in my eyes when Obama had won. I thought I was seeing an impossible dream coming true. This time around I feel angry and betrayed by the man who crushed my dream, who failed to do right by the multitudes who voted for him.
I do believe that the Romney loss must energize a discussion among right-wing American Jews about planning their future in Israel. Our website will continue to cover opportunities in Israel in terms of jobs, housing, medical care, creature comforts, socializing, a spiritual life and the economy. It is my honest opinion that, given the above predictions about the next four years, you could do a whole lot better on my side of the water.
tell a friendAbout the Author: JewishPress.com Senior Internet Editor Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published two fun books: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.
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No Responses to “Obama Wins Close National Vote, Mandate Denied, US Future Dim”
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Yori Yanover you delusional he won big we didn’t count Florida yet he won the popular vote and the Electoral vote that’s not a squeak. face it you lost!
Avner Garbi — House stays Republican, Senate not even close to filibuster-proof numbers, everything stays the same. Even the next choice for Supremes will have to be moderate or it won’t pass.
not for long Yori , they abstracted everything in the last 2 years if they will do the same they are out in 2014, and the one that vote on the supreme court judges is the senate not the house and democrats have control in the senate .
I am aware that many Israelis are disappointed by Obama’s reelection. still, how can someone get over 50% of the popular vote and a large Electoral College margin and his win be considered “close”?
Had the GOP fielded a moderate ticket willing to heal the rancor and reach for consensus, most American would have voted against Obama.
The GOP chose, on the contrary to go Medieval Inquisitor on women and immigrants, and pull the rug from under the young, the elderly, and the poor. They lost because no one in America wanted to wake up with less civil rights and economic safety net than they had, going to bed the day before. The only reason this will not happen in Israel is that our Left has deserted its responsibility to Am and Eretz Israel and we either vote for the Right or vote ourselves out of a country and into exile again.
I am aware that many Israelis are disappointed by Obama’s reelection. still, how can someone get over 50% of the popular vote and a large Electoral College margin and his win be considered “close”?
Had the GOP fielded a moderate ticket willing to heal the rancor and reach for consensus, most American would have voted against Obama.
The GOP chose, on the contrary to go Medieval Inquisitor on women and immigrants, and pull the rug from under the young, the elderly, and the poor. They lost because no one in America wanted to wake up with less civil rights and economic safety net than they had, going to bed the day before. The only reason this will not happen in Israel is that our Left has deserted its responsibility to Am and Eretz Israel and we either vote for the Right or vote ourselves out of a country and into exile again.
70% of American Jews voted again for Obama— If Iran acquires nuclear weapons and uses them against Israel, the Jewish blood will be on their hands as aiding and abetting in the destruction of the Jewish People.
Iran isn’t getting a nuclear weapon no matter who’s in charge.
70% of American Jews voted again for Obama— If Iran acquires nuclear weapons and uses them against Israel, the Jewish blood will be on their hands as aiding and abetting in the destruction of the Jewish People.
Iran isn’t getting a nuclear weapon no matter who’s in charge.
WRONG ANALYSIS!
It has been the SECOND TIME IN A ROW that the GOP lost the Presidential Election by having a VERY MODERATE CANDIDATE that did not express real Republican themes and DID NOT GATHER THE ENTHUSIASTIC SUPPORT OF TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN VOTERS.
He was a bit better than MacCain, and in fact he got more votes and almost made it; but he was FAR FROM THE GALVANIZING STANCES TAKEN BY RONALD REAGAN even against an opposer who was not better than Carter.
It is NOT by BECOMING MORE SOCIALIST or MULTICULTURALIST or by ADULATING ISLAM and BEING TOLERANT TOWARD ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION that Republican candidates can win the Presidency. Just as much as it is not by spreading, condoning or even not condemning VERY VOCALLY witch-doctor pseudo science canards like “Legitimate rape doesn’t cause pregnancy” [sic!], nor it is by adulating a LYING President on his foreign policy B.S.
WRONG ANALYSIS!
It has been the SECOND TIME IN A ROW that the GOP lost the Presidential Election by having a VERY MODERATE CANDIDATE that did not express real Republican themes and DID NOT GATHER THE ENTHUSIASTIC SUPPORT OF TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN VOTERS.
He was a bit better than MacCain, and in fact he got more votes and almost made it; but he was FAR FROM THE GALVANIZING STANCES TAKEN BY RONALD REAGAN even against an opposer who was not better than Carter.
It is NOT by BECOMING MORE SOCIALIST or MULTICULTURALIST or by ADULATING ISLAM and BEING TOLERANT TOWARD ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION that Republican candidates can win the Presidency. Just as much as it is not by spreading, condoning or even not condemning VERY VOCALLY witch-doctor pseudo science canards like “Legitimate rape doesn’t cause pregnancy” [sic!], nor it is by adulating a LYING President on his foreign policy B.S.
this is not a smart a** question-but I really want to understand how any Jewish person could vote for obama-to me he doesn’t stand by Israel and will not back her against iran-he has not even been there since being president-yet visits surrounding countries-he slighted Bibi at an important time and clearly supports the muslim brotherhood and islam.can some please explain this to me?
He should support Islam as most of the religion is normal. It’s the 1% of radicals that are…. well, not. He has stood by Israel, perhaps not in the way we’d exactly love him to but you can’t say he hasn’t been supportive.
so you really think when iran gets the bomb that obama will stand by Israel? I am afraid he won’t.but i do believe where in the Bible it says God will protect Israelfrom her enemies.
Oh please, you really think Obama will let Iran get a bomb?
yes i honestly do
Why would he? On what logical grounds would he let Iran go nuclear?
obama is not logical-and i think he is really bad at foreign policy-what do u think he will do to stop them?
Please, as President one must be logical. He’s waaaaay better at foreign policy that Romney, who managed to piss off our allies despite not even being President.
He’s said diplomacy comes first, which I agree with, but a military strike is not off the table.
well-i guess we will see-i just want Israel to be safe-they are like an oasis of good in a desert of evil and hate
this is not a smart a** question-but I really want to understand how any Jewish person could vote for obama-to me he doesn’t stand by Israel and will not back her against iran-he has not even been there since being president-yet visits surrounding countries-he slighted Bibi at an important time and clearly supports the muslim brotherhood and islam.can some please explain this to me?
He should support Islam as most of the religion is normal. It’s the 1% of radicals that are…. well, not. He has stood by Israel, perhaps not in the way we’d exactly love him to but you can’t say he hasn’t been supportive.
so you really think when iran gets the bomb that obama will stand by Israel? I am afraid he won’t.but i do believe where in the Bible it says God will protect Israelfrom her enemies.
Oh please, you really think Obama will let Iran get a bomb?
yes i honestly do
Why would he? On what logical grounds would he let Iran go nuclear?
obama is not logical-and i think he is really bad at foreign policy-what do u think he will do to stop them?
Please, as President one must be logical. He’s waaaaay better at foreign policy that Romney, who managed to piss off our allies despite not even being President.
He’s said diplomacy comes first, which I agree with, but a military strike is not off the table.
well-i guess we will see-i just want Israel to be safe-they are like an oasis of good in a desert of evil and hate
The Jewish Press really can’t deal with an Obama win, can it.
Apparently I missed when Israel suddenly went to the extreme fringes of the right
Apparently I missed when Israel suddenly went to the extreme fringes of the right
I am having a hard time dealing w/it myself-we’ll just have to double up the stocking on supplies and ammo.
I am having a hard time dealing w/it myself-we’ll just have to double up the stocking on supplies and ammo.
^Why, exactly?
^Why, exactly?
why am i sad or why on the stocking up?
why am i sad or why on the stocking up?
Why are you buying guns and ammunition? that seems a strange response to an election.
Why are you buying guns and ammunition? that seems a strange response to an election.
oh its not in reaction to the election-we have been stocking up for a long time on water-food-silver-ammo,etc.-because we feel like our dollar could crash w/ the debt America has-or any other crisis-like up north-i wouldn’t call us preppers-just being prudent
oh its not in reaction to the election-we have been stocking up for a long time on water-food-silver-ammo,etc.-because we feel like our dollar could crash w/ the debt America has-or any other crisis-like up north-i wouldn’t call us preppers-just being prudent
Except the debt is mostly owed to ourselves, it’s getting cheaper to service, the dollar is even stronger abroad and the annual deficit has been slowing. What reality do you live in?
Except the debt is mostly owed to ourselves, it’s getting cheaper to service, the dollar is even stronger abroad and the annual deficit has been slowing. What reality do you live in?
you don’t have to be ugly-and no we don’t just owe that debt to ourselves-we have borrowed heavily from china and otherand the dollar is not as strog abroad as it used to be-i still want to know how YOU think obama will stop iran frome completing their bombs.oh and my reality is Rome,Georgia.
We owe just 8% of the national debt to China. We owe about 60% of it combined to US institutions and individuals and to the government itself.
We owe just 8% of the national debt to China. We owe about 60% of it combined to US institutions and individuals and to the government itself.
You want a moderate Republican? Well, good, you got one: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/11/obama_the_moderate_republican_what_the_2012_election_should_teach_the_gop.html.
You want a moderate Republican? Well, good, you got one: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/11/obama_the_moderate_republican_what_the_2012_election_should_teach_the_gop.html.