A Midgam Institute poll commissioned by Army Radio reveals that Habayit Hayehudi led by Ayelet Shaked would capture 2.5% of the votes if the election were held today (Monday). To remind you, the threshold vote in Israel is 3.25%, so Ayelet has a long way to go to stretch her stash by a third. But it’s better than her normal 2%, give or take.
Otherwise, let’s do the numbers:
Right-Wing bloc: Likud 32, Religious Zionism 12, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 7 = 59
Left-wing bloc: Yesh Atid 24, National Camp 12, Israel Beiteinu 6, Labor 6, Meretz 5 = 53
Arab parties: Ra’am 4, Hadash-Ta’al 4 = 8
So, Netanyahu does not have the desired 61 mandates, while Lapid, should he manage to enlist the two Arab parties at least to recommend him to the president, is on top with 61.
Naturally, should Ayelet Shaked declare that she and her party are withdrawing from the race, they could net the right-wing bloc those 2 missing mandates. But Shaked is relentless, insisting that the closer she gets to the 3.25% mark, the more likely Benjamin Netanyahu would be to reward her by signaling voters to support her.
I’m not sure her thinking reflects political reality as we know it, seeing as that extra 1% must come either from Likud or Religious Zionism, neither of which is in a generous mood when it comes to Shaked.
The Midgam poll included 501 respondents in a representative sample of the entire adult population in Israel, with a maximum sampling error of 4.4%.
Speaking of which, Guy Zohar, who hosts a daily show depicting the gap between reality and the media known as “The Other Side,” on Sunday dealt with a statement from Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked who boasted that she succeeded in deporting the family members of a terrorist who killed four IDF soldiers a few years ago. Zohar noted that the political process and the judicial appeals had taken five years, and that, indeed, the move to deport was initiated and carried out by Interior Minister … Aryeh Deri.