Photo Credit: Courtesy; free Sa'ar image via Wikimedia

A new Channel 12 survey that was published Tuesday night examined how the political map would look if Gideon Sa’ar headed the Likud instead of Netanyahu. In this scenario, according to the poll, Blue&White would strengthen to 35 seats, and the Likud would drop to a mere 26 seats.

The Joint Arab List would hold on to its 13 seats, and Shas would rise to 10 seats. United Torah Judaism would keep its current 8 seats.


MK Gideon Sa’ar on Wednesday was asked by Army radio about the survey results, and did not seem discouraged by his low score, compared to Netanyahu’s predicted result of 33 seats, according to the same survey.

“I have only just begun and I’m with 26 seats, confronting someone who has been in power for 10 straight years,” Sa’ar said.

Sa’ar also claimed that many Likud members who have left the party would come back if he were at the head of the party.

“Every Likud person has friends and neighbors who have left us, and they will come back to vote Likud if I led it,” he said.

MK Sa’ar also repeated the message that he believes Netanyahu will not be able to form a government.

“Netanyahu will not be able to form a government even after additional elections according to the survey,” he pointed out, adding that a change in the current situation is a must.

“What’s the horizon? What’s the future? The change must be made for the movement and the state,” he reiterated.

According to the same survey, if the Knesset elections were held yesterday with Netanyahu leading the Likud, the biggest party would still be Blue&White, with 34 seats (compared to 33 in the current Knesset). Immediately following would be Likud with 33 seats (compared to 32). The third largest party once again would be the Joint Arab List with 13 seats – same as in the current Knesset.

In a Sa’ar-led Likud scenario, Avigdor Liberman’s Israel Beiteinu would not be affected, retaining its 9 seats. New Right would be boosted up to 9 seats – while its former partner Habayit Hayehudi would drop below the 3.25% vote threshold and disappear.

Labor-Gesher would get 6 seats, and the Democratic Camp would go down to 4 seats from its current 5.

In terms of the blocs, in a scenario with Sa’ar at the helm in the Likud, the rightwing bloc drops to 53 seats from its current 55; the leftwing bloc has 45 seats; the Arab parties have 13; and Lieberman has 9.

Respondents were also asked if they agree with Sa’ar’s assertion that Netanyahu will not be able to form a government even after another election. 54% answered that they agree (41% among rightwing voters, and 77% of leftwing voters). 26% said they disagreed (40% rightwing, 7% leftwing voters). 20% said they didn’t know (19% on the right, 16% on the left).

The survey was conducted by Mano Geva and the Sample Institute among 510 respondents ages 18 and over, via telephone and the Internet, on November 26, 2019, with a sampling error of +- 4.4.


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