A new News 12 poll published Saturday night suggests that 65% of respondents who said they would vote for Likud are confident in their vote come election day, September 17, compared with 50% for Blue&White. But among respondents who stated their support for Israel Beiteinu, only 38% are certain of their vote in the moment of truth at the polling station. Yamina is in worse shape, with only 33% of their supporters expressing their commitment, and Labor enjoying only a 32% commitment.
This means that the two major parties could siphon off many potential voters in the time left until the elections, which could cut Liberman’s Israel Beiteinu down to size, around 6 or 7 mandate, Yamina down to 7 or 8 seats. Labor could find itself fighting for its life at the vote threshold of just below 4 mandates.
According to the poll, if elections were held today, Likud and Blue&White will receive 30 seats each; Joint Arab List 11; Yamina up in double digits again with 11; Israel Beiteinu set at 10; United Torah Judaism with 8; Shas 7; Democratic Camp 7; Labor 6.
On Sunday, the high court of justice will convene to decide whether the Arab list and Otzma Yehudit will be disqualified, but either way, Otzma does not cross the threshold, and neither does Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party.
The blocs remain the same, with neither side able to put together 61 mandates without Avigdor Liberman’s votes.
Netanyahu has 56, while Gantz has 43.
Liberman on Saturday said that “there will be no third election” should the two blocs remain at an impasse. He explained: “If Netanyahu does not receive 61 recommendations after the parties’ meetings with the president, by the next day he would not remain Likud chairman.”
“There are a lot of worthy people in the Likud who can replace him,” Liberman said, adding, “Anyone they decide to choose in his place will be acceptable to me.”