One year since the last election, Israel Hayom published a Ma’agar Mohot survey showing not much has changed, but, as usual, God is in the details. Such as the fact that 55% of respondents think the current government’s treatment of the economy is terrible. Or that 61% think the way it handles the Iranian threat is a mistake.
But before we continue, you must take this survey with a hefty pinch of salt, seeing as it involved 502 respondents and its sampling error is at +-4.4, making every single fact we’ll cite next potentially off by almost 5% in either direction. But the results are amusing nevertheless, and we haven’t done one of these in a while, so here goes:
How would each party perform if the elections were held today?
Likud – 34 (today 29) +
Yesh Atid – 17 (17) =
Blue & White – 10 (8) +
Religious Zionism – 9 (7) +
Labor – 8 (7) +
Shas – 8 (9) –
United Torah Judaism – 8 (7) +
Yamina – 6 (6) =
Joint Arab List – 6 (6) =
Israel Beitenu – 5 (7) –
Meretz – 5 (6) –
Ra’am – 4 (4) =
New Hope – 0 (6) –
Overall, the coalition parties would have 55 seats, compared to the opposition parties without the Joint List, who would have 59. This means that should Netanyahu et al be able to shake hands and be friends again with Bennett and Yamina, the right-wing bloc would be able to erect a 65-seat strong coalition government. But Netanyahu could also keep a grudge and strike the same deal with Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas that Bennet-Lapid have done, and keep Yamina out.
Will the current government serve out its 4-year term? 41% believe it will, 36% say it won’t, and 23% are not sure. This last figure includes yours truly.
Same question, different angle: will the rotation of the prime minister’s post take place as agreed, Bennett will walk off and Lapid will take the helm?
Rotation will take place as planned – 35%
Rotation will not take place – 35%
Don’t know – 30%
Is the government on the right track regarding the Iranian threat? A whopping 61% say it isn’t, only 39% approve.
And who is the most suitable to serve as Israel’s prime minister?
Benjamin Netanyahu – 55%
Yair Lapid – 21%
Naftali Bennett – 14%
Benny Gantz – 10%.
So, despite his three consecutive failures to put together a coalition government, Netanyahu is still way ahead of everyone else. And Bennett, despite serving as PM for close to a year, is still not favored by a vast majority of Israelis.
No wonder he’s been gaining weight.