Photo Credit: Images by Noam Revkin Fenton and Tomer Neuberg / Flash90
Moshe Ya'alon, Gabi Ashkenazi, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid vs. Netanyahu

Here are the findings of a special survey conducted Thursday for Ma’ariv following the militaristic explosion at the center of Israeli politics, as Lieutenant Generals Benny Gantz, Moshe Yaalon and Gabi Ashkenazi, together with Yair Lapid, announced their new union:

Had the April 9 elections been held today, the new Blue and White party would have gotten more votes than Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party, by 35 to 29. Considering that Gantz and Lapid running by themselves had been averaging 22 and 11 Knesset seats, it means an additional 2 seats for the newlyweds.

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But look at the spread of right- vs. left-wing parties:

On the right:

Likud: 29
New Right: 8
United Torah Judaism: 7
Habayit Hayehudi: 6
Shas: 5
Israel Beiteinu: 4
Kulanu: 4

Total: 63, assuming Liberman and Kahlon agree to join a Netanyahu-led coalition government.

On the left:

Blue and White: 35
Labor: 7
Meretz: 4

Total: 46

Supposing Liberman and Kahlon are persuaded to join, it gives B&W 54, vs. Likud’s 55

In order for Gantz and Lapid to have a majority in the Knesset, they will have to rely on the two Arab lists:

Ahmed Tibi: 6
Joint Arab List: 5

In which case it’s hard to believe that Moshe Kahlon and certainly Avigdor Liberman would join this coalition, leaving Gantz-Lapid with 57 compared with Netanyahu’s 63.

This pattern continues in all the other polls – Gantz et al get more votes than Bibi, but in the end the right-wing block gets the Knesset majority rather easily, while the center-left just do not make it over the half-way mark.

The Kan, Israel’s Public Broadcasting Corporation, News poll:

On the right:

Likud: 32
New Right: 7
Habayit Hayehudi: 6
United Torah Judaism: 6
Shas: 6
Israel Beiteinu: 5

Total: 62

On the Left:

B&W: 35
Labor: 8
Meretz: 4

Total: 47

Arabs:

The re-joined Joint Arab List: 11

Giving Gantz only 58.

The Channel 13 poll is the most generous to Gantz, the harshest for Netanyahu:

On the right:

Likud: 26
United Right-Wing Parties (Habayit Hayehudi, National Union, Jewish Power): 8
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
Israel Beiteinu: 5
New Right (Bennett): 5
Kulanu: 4

Total: 61

On the left:

B&W: 36
Labor: 5
Merez: 4

Total: 45

Arabs:

Joint Arab List with Tibi: 10
Ra’am-Balad: 4

Total: 14

Gantz/Lapid still get only 59 seats.

Finally, Channel 12 News:

On the right

Likud: 30
United Torah Judaism: 7
New Right: 6
Shas: 5
Israel Beiteinu: 4
United Right-Wing Parties: 4
Kulanu: 4

Total: 60

On the Left:

B&W: 36
Labor: 8
Meretz: 4

Total: 48

Two Arab parties running separately: 12

And so, all the different polls are predicting a resounding win to the Gantz-Lapid union, yielding together a higher figure than they would have going it alone, the fact remains that there are more right- than left-wing Israeli Jews.

As to Arab voters: despite Arab citizens constituting about 1/5 of the population – which could have given them as many as 24 seats in the Knesset – only a little over one half of Arab voters hit the polls.

Incidentally, a recent poll that targeted only Jewish voters showed an even greater marginalizing of the left in Israel.

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