Since the political revolution of the last election, the Bennett-Lapid coalition has settled down with a small but stable majority in the polls. Every mainstream poll over the past six months has indicated that after about 5 seats had migrated from Naftali Bennett’s Yamina and Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope back to the right-wing bloc, the remaining small majority of Israeli voters support the coalition parties. Not anymore.
This week, a Direct Polls survey showed that close to two whole votes have switched from the coalition parties to the right and that the trend for Bennet et al is down. Yamina is losing its centrist, middle-class voters who are critical of the government’s inability to provide their sector with sound support in facing the economic pain during Corona; and many national-religious voters are disappointed in the party’s kashrut and conversion reforms.
And in the Arab sector, there is considerable disappointment and a wide gap in expectations, after the euphoria of Ra’am first few months in power. The Bedouin struggles in the Negev, delays in pro-Arab legislation, and the endless clashes between Ra’am and the Joint Arab List, have pushed Ra’am voters away – although it is still in better shape than it was in the last election. Still, the Arab List goes up one seat in this survey.
Meanwhile, the left-wing parties are holding on to their power, give or take a seat, although they don’t seem to be able to improve their numbers. As of this poll, the Lapid-Bennett coalition is at 53 seats, while the right-wing parties, the Netanyahu loyalists, are back at 60 seats, a number they haven’t seen since 2019.
So here’s the breakdown. If the next election were held this week, this would be the outcome:
Likud – 36 (currently: 30)
Yesh Atid – 17 (17)
Blue&White – 9 (8)
Shas – 9 (9)
Religious Zionism – 8 (6)
United Torah Judaism – 7 (7)
Labor – 7 (7)
Joint Arab List – 7 (6)
Israel Beiteinu – 6 (7)
Meretz – 5 (6)
Ra’am – 5 (4)
Yamina – 4 (7)
New Hope – 0 (2.9%, less than the required 3.25% threshold. Currently: 6).
The survey was conducted by [state witness in Netanyahu’s trial who found something better to do] Shlomo Filber and Tzuriel Sharon through Direct Polls LTD, on Sunday, February 13, 2022, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 583 adults (18+) who constitute a representative sample of the entire population in Israel. Statistical sampling error +-4.4% with a margin of error of 95%.
We should note that with this margin of error, both Yamina and New Hope could easily find themselves outside or inside the next Knesset.