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February 6, 2016 / 27 Shevat, 5776

Posts Tagged ‘Labor’

A Coalition of Brothers

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

To date, everyone has talked about a Likud led coalition, a Labor (Zionist Union) led coalition, and a National Unity government.

But there’s another election possibility to consider.

In the outgoing coalition, Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) and Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) proved they could get what they wanted if they stood firm together against Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud); and so, this time around, once the votes are counted, the mid-size parties may quickly realize they can again get what they want, if they again pull the same trick.

What would happen if most of the mid-size parties pulled a “brother,” and created a united front, the United Center, if you will – led by Yair Lapid?

Consider the following configuration:

Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) = 33

The United-Middle is just 28 seats short of a coalition.

There’s actually no reason to assume that Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Litzman (UTJ) can’t find common ground – after all, while Lapid got to pass his Haredi draft law, in reality the law backfired and fewer Haredim now enter the army – so both sides have won (or lost).

UTJ’s 7 seats would put the United-Center at 40. UTJ also gets the added bonus of hurting Bayit Yehudi, whom they are still angry at from the previous coalition government, when Bennett joined with Lapid, excluding UTJ from the coalition.

The United-Middle then has the choice to invite either the Likud or the Zionist Union to join the coalition as junior partners (assuming Tzipi Livni hadn’t already split off her HaTnua party from the Zionist Union to join the United-Middle on the strength of her own 6 seats).

Yair Lapid has actually hinted that this is what he plans to do.

Lapid made it clear he won’t recommend Netanyahu, but he did not alternatively promise that he would recommend Herzog/Livni. Members of his own party implied that Lapid might recommend Lapid.

To counter this embarrassment of coming in as junior partners, the Likud and Herzog would try to form a National Unity government.

Labor (24) + Likud (21) = 45

Bringing in Bennett (13) gives them 58, and the first 3 from Yachad (excluding Marzel), if not alternatively the 7 from UTJ puts a National Unity government over the top at 61, 64 or 67.

Unfortunately, that configuration has one major flaw. Tzipi Livni.

Livni may decide to bolt to the United-Center rather than sit in a coalition with Bennett, and be in some crazy 3-way rotation with both Herzog and Netanyahu.

In which case, the numbers change to:

Likud (21) + Labor (16) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) = 57.

Four seats short.

Who would blink first?

Shas (7) would be the weakest link to bribe away from the United-Center, giving a National Unity government 64 seats. Lieberman might also switch sides if he sees things not going his way.

We are entering one of the most critical elections in Israel’s history, and absolutely everything is up for grabs.

It does appear that if the mid-sized parties try to flex too much muscle and get too greedy, we will end up with a National Unity government.

Clearly, as tense and crazy as this pre-election period has been, it won’t compare to what happens after the votes are counted.

It Might Be Better to Vote Yachad

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

At the start of this week I endorsed Bayit Yehudi. I felt from a strategic perspective it made the most sense. We need a strong/influential Rightwing/religious party keeping Netanyahu from drifting too far left – in a Likud led coalition.

But the polls results these past few days fill me with trepidation.

Not only is Likud losing mandates, and not to Bayit Yehudi or Yachad which would at least keep the votes on the right, but as far as I can tell, the seats are shifting to Yesh Atid and due to increased Likud-voter apathy.

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu) have sensed the winds of change and have made it clear they’ll be supporting Herzog/Livni.

Due to this idiotically raised electoral threshold, these middling parties have become the absolute key to forming any government. From early on, Kachlon managed to position himself to be the lever for whichever coalition would want to come into power.

With Kachlon’s intentions pretty clear, only an election miracle will keep the radical left from back coming to power and returning us to the awful Oslo days.

If that’s the case, I think it will be more important to vote Yachad – for Eli Yishai and Baruch Marzel.

A radical leftwing Livni/Herzog government is going to do very bad things to this country.

They’re going to bring socialism back into our economy – regardless of what Kachlon thinks.

Iran will see this as an opportunity to go full steam ahead.

And the Palestinian Authority will only need to sit back and accept whatever latest gift Livni/Herzog hands over to them that day – as they escalate the violence in return.

“Sacrifices for Peace” is again going to be sick slogan we’ll be inundated with constantly, and the only question is how long will it take before the government starts throwing Jews out of our homes “for Peace”.

If that’s going to be the scenario, then we don’t need a party that will keep Netanyahu from going left, presuming he doesn’t retire. We’ll need an opposition party that will fight tooth and nail to protect us, a party who is going to raise the biggest stink and scream the loudest, because besides that, there won’t be much more that the Right will be able to do from the back benches.

And if that’s the case, we need Baruch Marzel in the Knesset.

Please God, don’t let the Left win – too many friends and acquaintances were murdered by Oslo and the policies of the Left. I do not want us to go through that again.

GLZ Poll Puts Labor On Top – With a Coalition

Wednesday, March 11th, 2015

Completely opposite of the i24 News poll last week, a new poll by Galei Tzahal puts the Zionist Union (Labor) in a strong lead… and for the first time, Labor can actually form a coalition.

A Leftwingg coalition would necessitate the Arab party joining the coalition, which would be a stretch for them, as well as Kulanu joining the coalition, which on the other hand, would be an easy move.

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24

Likud (Netanyahu): 21

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7

Shas (Deri): 7

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 6

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 4
LEFT: Labor (24) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Meretz (6) = 62

RIGHT: Likud (21) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (4)= 58

The question remains, will UTJ (and perhaps Shas) be willing to sit with Yesh Atid (or Meretz) if it means getting their fingers back in the pie?

i24 Poll Gives Likud 5 Seat Lead

Sunday, March 8th, 2015

I24 News published the most radical poll results to date. They give Likud a 5 seat lead over Labor, with Shas starting to rebound.

Without a significant increase in seats for Bayit Yehudi, these numbers would make a National Unity government even more likely, where no one party, besides Labor, could break up Netanyahu’s coalition.

In the I24 poll, Yachad doesn’t make the cut.

Likud (Netanyahu): 26

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 21

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 8

Shas (Deri): 8

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 7

Meretz (Gal-On): 5

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

LEFT: Labor (21) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Meretz (5) = 58

RIGHT: Likud (26) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (8) + Shas (8) + Yisrael Beytenu (7) = 62

National Unity: Likud (26) + Labor (21) + Kulanu (8) + Shas (8) + Yisrael Beytenu (7) = 69

Latest Election Poll

Wednesday, March 4th, 2015

A new poll by Teleseker has the Likud back in the lead.

ELi Yishai is surging upward, and Meretz is dropping.

Likud (Netanyahu): 24

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 22

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 8

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 6

Shas (Deri): 6

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 4

LEFT: Labor (22) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Meretz (4) = 50

RIGHT: Likud (24) + Bayit Yehudi (12) + Kulanu (8) + UTJ (8) + Shas (6) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (6) = 70

Latest Election Poll

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

Reshet Bet released the following poll results over the weekend:

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 23

Likud (Netanyahu): 22

The Joint (Arab) List: 13

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 9

Shas (Deri): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 5

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 4

LEFT: Labor (23) + Arab List (13) + Yesh Atid (12) + Meretz (5) = 53

RIGHT: Likud (22) + Bayit Yehudi (12) + Kulanu (9) + UTJ (6) + Shas (8) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (4) = 67

National Unity: Likud (22) + Labor (23) + Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (9) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) = 72

‘5 Shades of Israel’ Debate the Issues for Anglo Votes in Jerusalem

Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

The top five political parties in Israel vied for the English-speaking vote in Jerusalem on Wednesday in a far more polite debate held at Cinema City in Jerusalem than is usually seen in Hebrew-speaking forums, in keeping with the cultural tenor of the audience.

JewishPress.com editor-in-chief Stephen Leavitt noted at the start of the event that Israel is home to nearly half a million “native English speakers” who have immigrated from countries as diverse at Australia, South Africa, the UK, Canada, the U.S. and other areas where the English language is spoken.

Representatives of the Likud, Yesh Atid, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beytenu and Labor-Tnua merger parties addressed the anglo voters on a set of five core issues. Among those that has been raising blood pressure in Israel and abroad is the Iranian nuclear threat and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s planned trip next week to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress in Washington D.C.

Yisrael Beytenu representative Ashley Perry led off the responses by asking, “How can we take on Iran if we cannot successfully take on Hamas and Hezbollah? We can achieve a draw at best,” he said, pointing to the results of the recent operations carried out against terror groups in Gaza and Lebanon.

“We have to first deal with the more imminent threat on our borders,” Perry said. “We have to take the gloves off. We need to return deterrence. The next time a single rocket comes over, we need to respond with such impact that … quiet returns for generations.”

Yesh Atid representative and MK Rabbi Dov Lipman commented, “There are times when leaders speak with bravado, but create tremendous damage to Israel along the way… I see it when I travel abroad. There is a way to go about such things.” Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to Congress, Lipman contended, is “doing tremendous damage.” He insisted the Congress could have — and would have — come up with a two-thirds vote to “override” any deal with Iran that President Barack Obama would have brought before the Congress for approval. Now, he said, “Congress cannot do anything about it.”

Hillik Bar, representing the Herzog-Hatnua parties, said he believes in “smart diplomacy” and that in essence, he agreed with Lipman. “But this time I agree with Netanyahu in that we in Israel do not believe the Iranians when they say they are using their nuclear power for peace. We know better.” The difference, Bar said, was that his party differs with Likud on how to differentiate between “those Arabs who want to live with us and those who don’t — those who want to live here INSTEAD of us. With those, we should speak with them in the language of the IDF; on this we agree with Netanyahu,” he said.

Likud representative and former MK, Professor Benny Begin’s oratorial skills prompted even the moderator to lose track of his own timekeeping — for which he later apologized to the audience.

“What a miracle,” he began quietly. “I should remind you that in the last decade and up to about two years ago, everyone agreed that Prime Minister Netanyahu was exaggerating about the Iranian threat in order to keep the debate about “internal” issues. The P5+1 was claiming there was “no weapons program” there in Iran… everyone was insisting that Netanyahu was making it up.

“There was only one person who carried that banner and he carried it high. It speaks about the far-sighted ability of Netanyahu, and his courage to carry it in the face of major opposition from everyone… These guys are a menace not only to Israel but to the whole world.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/5-shades-of-israel-debate-the-issues-for-anglo-votes-in-jerusalem/2015/02/25/

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