The successful Gaza operation that ended with all of the IDF’s goals being reached with no loss of life on Israel’s side (45 dead in Gaza, 15 by Islamic Jihad failed rockets) has improved things for Prime Minister Yair Lapid – although only marginally. Which begs the question, what does a guy need to do to win around here, bomb Iran?
According to a News 13 survey published Monday evening, Likud and Netanyahu are losing Knesset mandates compared to last week’s Channel 13’s poll and stand at 34 mandates compared to Yesh Atid and Lapid, who are up slightly with 22 mandates. Benny Gantz, the co-architect of Operation Breaking Dawn loses a little, Blue & White / New Hope is down by one seat, to 11. Again, what does a guy need to do to win around here?
Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism also lost a little and drops to 11 mandates. However, the big story is: Zionist Spirit, Ayelet Shaked’s and Yoaz Hendel’s up-again-down-again fledgling party, ended up above the 3.25% threshold vote this time, with 4 seats.
Shas is down to 7 seats, the same as United Torah Judaism which holds on to its 7.
Labor, which has its primaries on Tuesday, is down one, to 5, compared to last week. The Joint Arab List keeps its 6 seats, and Ra’am and Meretz each get 4 seats.
The current coalition parties put together reach only 55 seats. The opposition without the Joint Arab List has only 59 (down from 62 last week). But with Shaked and Hendel jumping ship, Netanyahu could still forge a 63-seat coalition government.
The situation is only slightly different in the Kan 11 poll:
Likud – 33 mandates (35 in the previous survey)
Yesh Atid – 23 mandates (22)
Blue& White / New Hope – 12 mandates (12)
Religious Zionism – 11 mandates (10)
Shas – 8 mandates (8)
United Torah Judaism – 7 mandates (7)
Joint Arab List – 6 mandates (6)
Israel Beiteino – 6 mandates (5)
Labor – 5 mandates (6)
Meretz – 5 mandates (5)
Ra’am – 4 mandates (4)
Zionist Spirit with Ayelet Shaked and Yoaz Hendel does not pass the threshold, receiving only 2.1% of the votes.
In the end, just like in the Channel 13 poll, Netanyahu’s coalition bloc is down to 59 seats, and Yair Lapid is at 55. Neither bloc would invite the Joint Arab List in and so neither party can forge a coalition government. However, when asked who is more fitting to fill the post of prime minister, Netanyahu or Lapid, the former got 45%, the latter 35%. But when asked to choose between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, 45% still picked the former, but Gantz’s numbered jumped from the mid-20s in previous polls to 33%.
Did Israel win Operation Breaking Dawn? 57% said it did, 4% said the Islamic Jihad did, and 30% said neither side won. But 62% supported the ceasefire, compared to 22% who said the IDF should have continued to pound the enemy.
Finally: how well did Prime Minister Lapid manage the war? 64% said he did very well to good, and only 17% said very badly to quite bad. Defense Minister Gantz did a little better: 68% very well to good, only 14% very badly to quite bad.