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December 8, 2016 / 8 Kislev, 5777

Posts Tagged ‘poll’

POLL: Will Israeli-Jews Trust Israeli-Arabs Ever Again?

Sunday, October 18th, 2015

Israel is facing a murderous wave of terror being committed by seemingly mainstream Israeli-Arabs against Jews. A significant number of the terrorists worked side-by-side with Israeli-Jews.

Even the city of Tel Aviv has decided to ban Israeli-Arabs from working in schools, during school hours – to reduce the likelihood of an Israeli-Arab slaughtering Jewish children.

Is this the end of Israeli-Arab coexistence in Israel?

(Wait for the poll to load)

free polls

Jewish Press Staff

Two Polls Show Most Americans Oppose ‘ObamaDeal’

Thursday, July 30th, 2015

Two separate polls this week reveal that far more Americans oppose  the “ObamaDeal” with Iran than those who favor it, and opposition grew to nearly two-thirds when respondents answered after hearing more argument for and against the agreement,

“Secure America Now” released a poll Wednesday that shows 45 percent of registered voters want Congressman to vote against the deal, an increase of 8 percent from last month, The Hill reported.

An earlier poll this week by CNN/ORC  produced results of 52 percent wanting Congress to reject the deal. Opposition grows with age, and even a majority of  Democrats 35 years old and order said they are against the deal. A small majority – 53 percent – of Democrats between the ages of 18 and 34 were in favor.

The Secure America Now poll included a very significant notation, reported by The Hill:

After hearing additional arguments for and against the deal, the opposition to the deal grew to 65 percent in the poll, indicating that advocates on both sides could have significant influence on the national debate over the coming weeks.

Democratic pollster Pat Caddell, who helped carry out the survey, told The Hill, “There’s some real message for Democratic senators here, which is why so many of them I think feel caught, and they rightly should, in between the arguments.”

Only 51 percent of Democrat respondents said that ObamaDeal  “makes America safer and more secure,” and the number dropped to 47 percent after they heard additional arguments from both sides.

Caddell declared that the rise in opposition to ObamaDeal is a trend and “it’s going to get worse.”

 

Tzvi Ben-Gedalyahu

US Poll: Keep Negotiating with Iran and Let Israel Bomb their Nukes

Monday, June 8th, 2015

A large plurality of Americans prefer that the Obama administration take a more dovish approach to end the Iranian nuclear threat but at the same time back Israel’s bombing the Islamic Republic

The Zogby Analytics poll, published Monday by Forbes, offered two options to 909 likely voters nationwide: Continue negotiations for a deal that limits Iranian nuclear development and allows for U.N. inspections, with the lifting of sanctions, or stop negotiations and “tighten the sanctions against Iran until Iran is ready to end all nuclear development, even if it means the US losing support of countries like France, Germany and Britain.” The first and more dovish option won support of 42 percent of the respondents, compared with 32 percent for the more hawkish diplomatic alternative.

But in the words of Zogby, “voters do not mind the US encouraging Israel doing the dirty work.” The poll asked:

Do you mainly support or oppose the US allowing Israel striking against Iranian nuclear sites?

The results were startling, with 45 percent supporting an IDF attack and only 23 percent opposing it. The other 32 percent were undecided.

Support for an Israeli military attack grows with age, 44 percent among 18-19 year olds and 49-50 percent for those over the of 50.

Among likely Democrat voters, 36 percent back and 28 percent back an Israeli strike. On the Republican side, the hawks outnumbered the doves by 4-1, with a whopping 59 percent giving their voice of approval to an attack.

Zogby asked, “What should we make of this?” and answered that most likely voters support American diplomacy with both Iran and the major powers, prefer a deal rather than the risk of war but also would like to see a quick solution if Israel can end the nuclear threat.

The poll’s report concluded:

Few Americans will cry if Iran’s nuclear acquisition is halted but American cannot stomach another long-term military engagement.

The questions imply many assumptions that are wrong. Even Israel admits that attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities does not necessarily mean ending the threat. It is speculation whether Iran will bounce back in three or four years and come close to getting it hands on a nuclear weapon, as the Obama administration argues, or will take the hint and invest its resources into more productive areas.

It also is not so certain that Americans think that a U.S. attack on Iran would mean a long war or one that would put soldiers on the ground.

The poll suggests a few other conclusions:

–Americans have lost faith in their armed forces to do what has to be done;

–They really are not sure that a deal will end the Iranian nuclear threat. At best, it will kick the can down the road a few years, maybe;

–And Americans trust Israel.

It is the last suggested conclusion that is the most significant. Israel may not have Obama’s back but when things got sticky, it probably has the back of most Americans, and that has huge implications when it comes to the BDS movement, aid for Israel and the Obama administration’s insistence to pander to the Palestinian Authority.

Tzvi Ben-Gedalyahu

Final Election Count is In

Thursday, March 19th, 2015

The final count of votes from the 2015 Israeli elections are in.

72.3% of eligible voters voted. 4,249,846 people voted out of 5,881,696 eligible voters.

The final seat distribution is as follows:

Likud (Netanyahu): 30
Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Shas (Deri): 7
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

The Likud was 15,877 seats away from passing the million voter mark.

Yachad was missing 11,932 votes in order to pass the minimum threshold.

43,842 votes in total were disqualified.

Yachad is considering petitioning the court over approximately 15,000 votes that were disqualified due to various problems with the voting slips.

Three people were arrested during the elections for tampering with Yachad voting slips, trying to make it impossible to vote for the Yachad party, and there were more cases where Yachad slips were found tampered with to disqualify them, but no arrests were made.

The Yachad party suspects they may have enough votes to still get in, and are currently examining the issue and will make a decision in the coming days.

Jewish Press News Briefs

Mahapach! מהפך – Likud Crushes Zionist Union

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

מהפך “Mahapach” – translated as upheaval or revolution, was the headline used by the Israeli media immediately following the 1977 elections when the Likud, led by Menachem Begin, won for the first time, changing the face of Israeli politics forever.

The overwhelming electoral victory yesterday by the Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, was nothing less than that, a revolution and upheaval, and most importantly, an absolutely clear mandate from the people to lead the coalition and the State of Israel.

With 99% of the votes counted, we’ll only see 1 seat change here or there as the percentages and deals are calculated.

The Likud is either at 29 or 30 seats, with an absolutely clear lead.

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24
Likud (Netanyahu): 29 (or 30)
The Joint (Arab) List: 14
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 (or 6)
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6
Meretz (Gal-On): 4
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

 

Both large parties, Likud and Zionist Union, won their seats by cannibalizing their smaller natural partners.

Bayit Yehudi made the biggest sacrifice for the Likud, with Bayit Yehudi voters heeding Netanyahu’s call to vote for Likud to guarantee Netanyahu a clear mandate..

Eli Yishai’s Yachad party did not make it into the Knesset.

Zahava Galon, the head of the Meretz party quit her party this morning, after winning only 4 seats.

Jewish Press News Briefs

LIVE: Initial Election Results – Who Won, Who Lost…

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

Here are the initial Exit Poll results from the 2015 elections for the 20th Knesset in Israel:

These are not final numbers, which can still change by the morning.

The configuration options assume that everyone goes with their natural partners. Other options is a National Unity government, or that some parties switch sides from their natural partners for a better offer.

It appears that PM Netanyahu is in the best position to form a coalition, but it will be dependent on Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu).

10:01 PM

Side by side comparison of the exit poll results:

Channel 10 2 1 Walla!
Party
Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 27 27 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27 28 27 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13 13 12 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8 8 9 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 12 12 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 9 10 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 6 6 6
Shas (Deri): 7 7 7 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5 5 5 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5 5 5 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0 0 0 0

 

Walla!

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Walla!):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 67

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 53

 

Channel 2

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 28
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 9
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 2):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

 

Channel 10 

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 10):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 56

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 64

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

Jewish Press News Briefs

A Coalition of Brothers

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

To date, everyone has talked about a Likud led coalition, a Labor (Zionist Union) led coalition, and a National Unity government.

But there’s another election possibility to consider.

In the outgoing coalition, Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) and Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) proved they could get what they wanted if they stood firm together against Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud); and so, this time around, once the votes are counted, the mid-size parties may quickly realize they can again get what they want, if they again pull the same trick.

What would happen if most of the mid-size parties pulled a “brother,” and created a united front, the United Center, if you will – led by Yair Lapid?

Consider the following configuration:

Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) = 33

The United-Middle is just 28 seats short of a coalition.

There’s actually no reason to assume that Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Litzman (UTJ) can’t find common ground – after all, while Lapid got to pass his Haredi draft law, in reality the law backfired and fewer Haredim now enter the army – so both sides have won (or lost).

UTJ’s 7 seats would put the United-Center at 40. UTJ also gets the added bonus of hurting Bayit Yehudi, whom they are still angry at from the previous coalition government, when Bennett joined with Lapid, excluding UTJ from the coalition.

The United-Middle then has the choice to invite either the Likud or the Zionist Union to join the coalition as junior partners (assuming Tzipi Livni hadn’t already split off her HaTnua party from the Zionist Union to join the United-Middle on the strength of her own 6 seats).

Yair Lapid has actually hinted that this is what he plans to do.

Lapid made it clear he won’t recommend Netanyahu, but he did not alternatively promise that he would recommend Herzog/Livni. Members of his own party implied that Lapid might recommend Lapid.

To counter this embarrassment of coming in as junior partners, the Likud and Herzog would try to form a National Unity government.

Labor (24) + Likud (21) = 45

Bringing in Bennett (13) gives them 58, and the first 3 from Yachad (excluding Marzel), if not alternatively the 7 from UTJ puts a National Unity government over the top at 61, 64 or 67.

Unfortunately, that configuration has one major flaw. Tzipi Livni.

Livni may decide to bolt to the United-Center rather than sit in a coalition with Bennett, and be in some crazy 3-way rotation with both Herzog and Netanyahu.

In which case, the numbers change to:

Likud (21) + Labor (16) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) = 57.

Four seats short.

Who would blink first?

Shas (7) would be the weakest link to bribe away from the United-Center, giving a National Unity government 64 seats. Lieberman might also switch sides if he sees things not going his way.

We are entering one of the most critical elections in Israel’s history, and absolutely everything is up for grabs.

It does appear that if the mid-sized parties try to flex too much muscle and get too greedy, we will end up with a National Unity government.

Clearly, as tense and crazy as this pre-election period has been, it won’t compare to what happens after the votes are counted.

Shalom Bear

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