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January 29, 2015 / 9 Shevat, 5775
 
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘polls’

Weekend’s Election Poll Results

Friday, January 16th, 2015

The weekend’s election poll by Walla shows the following results:

Labor (Herzog/Livni): 26
Likud (Netanyahu): 24
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 18
Arab Party: 11
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 8
Kulanu (Kachlon): 8
UTJ (Gafni/Litzman): 8
Shas (Deri): 8
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-on): 5

Israeli Anti-Bibi Media turn Four Election Polls into one Lie

Friday, January 16th, 2015

Four pre-election polls published Thursday night and Friday morning show varying results, but two of them reveal that the popularity of Labor-Livni has grown by a solitary seat in the Knesset. Nevertheless, Israel’s establishment media are reporting the trivial news as if there is a rush of support for the left.

Polls are not  meaningless, but when a party registers one seat more or one less from week to week, it is virtually insignificant, numerically as well as statistically when taking into account the margin of error in small samples.

That has not stopped Israel Radio, known by the misnomer in English as the Voice of Israel, from promoting the results of this week’s poll as a victory for the “Zionist camp,” a label now claimed by everyone except for Neturei Karta.

Similarly,  three television polls show that the lead party is the “Zionist camp,” whose list of candidates likely to be elected includes those who want to turn over all of Judea and Samaria as well as half of Jerusalem to the Palestinian Authority, which has said that no Jew will be allowed to live there.

The same poll trumpeted by Israel radio also shows that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has a 4 percentage lead over Labor party leaders Yitzchak Herzog and Tzipi Livni when voters are faced with the question of who should be Prime Minister. However, Rafi Smith, who carried out the poll, said this is insignificant because of the margin of error, which apparently does not apply to results in favor of the left.

But that was the secondary headline.

The big news, according to Israel Radio, is that Herzog-Livni is now leading the Likud party by two seats instead of one.

The gap is 2, 4 and 1 in three polls on television channels 2, 10 and 1.

More significant is that Herzog-Livni still have no chance to form a coalition government without an ungodly collection of Meretz and Yisrael Beiteinu or Yisrael Beiteinu and Haredi parties.

After adding up all the numbers, the picture has not changed from last week or even last month: There are two camps: the anti-Netanyahu parties of Labor-Livni, Meretz and Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid; and the pro-Netanyahu camp of the Likud and the Jewish Home, which according to all polls is holding stable with 16-17 mandates.

The most significant changes in the numbers relate to Yisrael Beiteinu, which has been in a clear trend of a decline in the past month. The four polls give the party 5, 6 and 7 seats, far less than when the current Knesset was dissolved.

After taking into account small differences in poll results for the other parties, Kulanu, headed by Moshe Kahlon, Yesh Atid, Meretz and Shas are not moving up or down significantly.

Eli Yishai, who split from Shas and formed his own party, still is on the borderline of being shut out of the Knesset.

There are other very significant indications: If Labor-Livni picks up any more seats, it will be at the expense of Meretz or Yesh Atid, and vice-versa. If Kulanu attracts more voters, they likely will move over from Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu and possibly the Likud.

There still are two months left before voters go to the polls, and Israel Radio and most of the television channels will try to convince voters that Herzog and Livni have the best chance to win.

If the combined party comes out on top, President Reuven Rivlin will have little choice but to give it the first crack at forming a government, which brings back to mind the elections five years ago.

Polls Show Voters Don’t Like Bibi but He Will Be Elected

Sunday, December 14th, 2014

More than 60 percent of Israeli voters think Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will return to office, according to a poll published Saturday by Channel 10.

The results are totally opposite the impression promoted by foreign and local anti-Netanyahu media the past week that his popularity has dropped to as low as 23 percent.

Netanyahu was very popular during the Protective Edge war against Hamas last summer. Once it was over and Israelis went back to fighting each other instead of the enemy, his rating plummeted, which is par for the course.

It is not surprising the Prime Minister is not popular because he does not have panaceas for security and gimmicks for the economy, the top issues that worry Israeli voters even more than a soccer game.

When Labor party chairman Yitzchak Herzog and his new has-been partner Tzipi Livni speak of magic potions like the Peace Process and social justice unto the ears of the People of Israel, they become very popular, temporarily.

The poll by Channel 10, which last week announced that Netanyahu’s popularity rating was only 23 percent, showed that 62 percent of Israelis think Netanyahu will return as Prime Minister after the elections in March,

More astounding, no one else came nearly as close. Number two, so to speak, was Herzog, whom only 15 percent thought will lead the next coalition.

Herzog and Livni simply do not have Netanyahu’s success and ability to communicate.

The center-left, buoyed by the media, can fool themselves into thinking they will dump Netanyahu, but the Channel 10 poll shows the voters prefer someone they do not like and  on whom they can depend rather someone who they like but is acting out the part.

Near-Total Palestinian Support for Rocketfire

Wednesday, August 27th, 2014

88.9 percent of Gaza Palestinians support the firing of rockets at Israeli civilians from Gaza, according to a  public opinion poll released Wednesday.

 

 

 

The poll, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion in Beit Sahour, a village on the outskirts of Bethlehem, also showed that 75.4 percent of Palestinians believe the rocket fire from Gaza has increased “deterrence” against Israel of the Palestinian Resistance has increased.

The poll was overseen by Dr. Nabil Kukal, founder and director of the Center, and conducted during the period from August 14-19. Participants included a random sample of 1000 adult respondents representing a range of demographics amongst the Palestinian  population in the Gaza Strip.

Elias Kukali, head of Research and Study at PCPO, said the interviews were conducted face-to-face at the respondents’ homes in northern Gaza, Gaza City, Deir El-Balah, Khan Yunis and the governorate of Rafah.

Other poll results included

  • 61.2 percent of the Palestinians oppose the deployment of UN forces in Gaza
  • 54.0 percent are satisfied with the performance of the PA-president “Abu Mazen”.
  • 64.7 percent rated the stances of the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon as “negative”.
  • 58.1 percent are content with the ICRC performance, (71.2 %) with that of the UNRWA.

CNN Poll Shows Majority Support for Interim Iran Deal

Friday, November 22nd, 2013

A poll showed majority support for the Obama administration strategy of easing sanctions on Iran in exchange for a partial rollback of its nuclear program.

A CNN poll released Thursday and conducted by ORC international showed 56 percent of respondents favored “an interim deal that would ease some of those economic sanctions and in exchange require Iran to accept major restrictions on its nuclear program but not end it completely and submit to greater international inspection of its nuclear facilities” and 39 percent opposed.

The poll, based on phone interviews between Nov. 18-20 of 843 respondents, has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

A Washington Post-ABC poll published Nov. 19 showed 64 percent of respondents supporting a deal “in which the United States and other countries would lift some of their economic sanctions against Iran, in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program in a way that makes it harder for it to produce nuclear weapons” and 30 percent opposed.

Unlike the CNN poll, the Post-ABC poll did not specifically address the crux of the difference between the Obama administration and Israel: Whether Iran should suspend all or some of its nuclear activities in an interim deal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by some U.S. lawmakers, has insisted that Iran must totally dismantle its nuclear program and end all enrichment in exchange for any easing of sanctions.

A third round of talks between Iran and major powers is underway in Geneva this week.

The Post-ABC poll also showed that only 36 percent of respondents were confident that such a deal would stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while 61 percent were not confident.

This poll was conducted Nov. 14-17 over the phone and reaching 1,006 respondents. It too had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Poll: Though Favoring Israel, Americans Wary of Iran Entanglement

Thursday, November 7th, 2013

Americans maintain a high opinion of the U.S.-Israel alliance but are wary of any involvement in a potential Iran conflict, according to an Anti-Defamation League poll.

Asked if Israel could be counted on “as a strong, loyal ally,” 76 percent of respondents agreed and 17 percent disagreed.

They also favored Israel over the Palestinians, 48 percent to 16 percent, and tended to regard Israel as a “close ally” by a much greater margin than other Middle East countries: 44 percent of respondents counted Israel as a close ally, with only 14 percent assigning that label to Turkey and 8 percent to Egypt.

On Iran, 81 percent of respondents said they did not trust the country and 74 percent labeled as “unlikely” Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons.

However, respondents were wary of any military engagement with Iran, with 50 percent favoring the inclusion of military force among options to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and 41 percent opposed.

Asked what the U.S. posture should be if Israel strikes Iran, 48 percent advocated neutrality, 40 percent favored support for Israel, and 9 percent said the United States should oppose any Israeli action.

“There are signs here as elsewhere that the American people want less U.S. involvement in the Middle East region, a position which has little to do with negative feelings toward Israel but that can have negative consequences for the Jewish state,” ADL National Director Abraham Foxman said in a statement.

Marttila Strategies conducted the survey for the ADL, polling 1,200 adults over the telephone Oct. 12-22. The survey has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

Nate Silver: Quinn the Most Likely Democrat

Sunday, June 9th, 2013

Take it from Nate. If there’s one pundit that has a record of predicting election outcomes accurately, it is Nate Silver of the NY Times Five Thirty Eight Blog. In the 2012 presidential elections, Silver was the only pundit who confidently predicted the election outcome, based on his analysis of public opinion polls.

In this year’s mayoral election, while it may be seen as a wide open race, Nate Silver already presumes City Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September, or in an October runoff. The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989.

In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election, Silver writes. The only exception was in 2009, when Anthony Weiner led Bill Thompson Jr. by five percentage points but decided to quit the race.

In this year’s mayoral race, Ms. Quinn has a lead of 17 percentage points in an average of the seven primary polls conducted so far. Although her level of support has fallen 39% percent in January, to 24% in the most recent Marist poll, she has managed to maintain a lead over her opponents, including Mr. Weiner.

Based on historical precedent and poll analysis, Nate Silver predicts: “Ms. Quinn is likely to win the Democratic nomination, even if she has to face a runoff election first.”

Silver has one glimpse of hope for the top four candidates polling in double digits. “While the early front-runner virtually always secures the nomination, underdogs have leapfrogged over other candidates to finish in the top tier (although never to win). In 2005, Mr. Weiner was barely in double digits in the first 15 polls of the year, but secured 29 percent of the primary vote, finishing in second place. In 1997, early surveys showed the Rev. Al Sharpton with just 9 percent of the vote, but he, too, went on to finish second in the primary, winning 32 percent of the vote.”

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/nate-silver-quinn-the-most-likely-democrat/2013/06/09/

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