And we’re off to the races with Tuesday morning’s Walla News TNS Teleseker, as the battered Likud-Beiteinu, with one leader tied behind its back with an indictment, is unable to stop the hemorrhaging of its votes to other right-wing parties. And so, had the elections been held on Sunday, when the poll was conducted (using a sample of 500 age 18+ Israelis, with a 2 seat margin of error), Likud-Beiteinu would have dropped to 34 seats, as compared with 35 seats in the same poll a week ago.

Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home appears completely recovered from the glitch of last week’s “refusal to evacuate Jew” fiasco, and it continues to own its 15 seats, give or take, as it did in the same poll a week ago.

Shas also maintains it rise from 10 to 11 seats, and Torah Judaism’s rise from 5 to 6 seats is a fait accompli.

On the other hand, Power to Israel has dropped off the face of the Earth in this poll, a victim of the “blocking percentage” that requires a list to gain two seats before it can receive its first seat.

Except that with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 seats, it is quite possible that both Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben Ari, the two bad boys of the Israeli right, will make it into the Knesset.

Altogether, the Likud-Beiteinu has lost 4 seats in three weeks in the Walla weekly poll, and so, even though the Right plus Haredim block maintains its 66 seat majority, Likud-Beiteinu’s share in the loot is shrinking.

On the Left things have remained about the same this week in this poll: Labor with 18, both Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid with 10 each, Meretz with 4, and Kadima is back in the race with 2 (down from its 28 seats in the previous elections). The Arab parties are down to just 10 seats from their previous projections of 12 and 11 – but that, too, is within the margin of error and the Arabs could very well end up with 12 seats.

There are a few unexpected developments reflected in this week’s poll.

First, the additional Shas seat can be explained by the anti-illegal workers sentiment among non-religious Israelis. The segment of the population that’s exposed more than any other to the phenomenon of idle African illegals loitering in their streets are working class Jews in the low income neighborhoods of the big cities, who are more likely to also be Sephardi.

Shas co-leader, Interior Minister Eli Yishai, is perceived publicly as an unabashed enemy of illegal migrants, and so, given those two factors, secular Israeli Sephardim may be feeling that their single issue would be best addressed with Shas in the government.

That brings us to the next unexpected development: paradoxically, the more secure Netanyahu appears in his future as the next prime minister, the more votes he’s going to lose. Since no one has risen to a point where they can hope to challenge Netanyahu for the top job – the more the thinking voter both on the left and on the right is going to figure out how to use their vote not to secure Netanyahu’s spot but to influence the direction of his government.

This is why both the moderate right – Jewish Home, and the moderate left – Labor, who would have otherwise voted Likud-Beiteinu, prefer now to throw their weight in favor of his potential coalition partners. This could explain why non-religious, right-wing voters who normally would be the typical Likud voters, are planning to vote for Jewish Home, a religious party.

Then there’s the unique personality of Naftali Bennett, who combines his knitted yarmulke with combat military service, an enviable exit as hi-tech developer, and a stint as Netanyahu’s chief of staff. His very common style, his earnestness and his magic touch in galvanizing the Jewish Home party from a 3-seat has been to the third largest party—albeit still just on paper—have ignited the imagination of secular Israelis who are not hostile to their own national tradition.

Moreover, Bennett insists on saying only good things about his former boss, Netanyahu, even when provoked by the beastly Nissim Mishal on TV, who kept barking at him: But Bibi hates you, he hates your guts, he’ll never let you into his government. At Likud things were not nearly as friendly, as the ruling party’s propaganda machine spent day and night portraying Bennett as an extreme right wing wolf in the sheepskin of a benign centrist. It cost Likud between 3 and 4 votes.

On Monday, the State informed the Israeli Supreme Court of their decision to expel the two Jewish families living in Beit Ezra. The expulsion is due to occur towards the end of April. That is, after the elections. Bibi Netanyahu isn’t interested in photos and videos of Jews being expelled from their homes in Hebron before the elections. It wouldn’t win him any mandates.

Following the 1967Six-Day War, past residents of the Old City in Jerusalem who had been expelled during the 1948War of Independence asked for, and were granted a meeting with then Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, to request permission to return to their homes and property in the Old City, confiscated and occupied by Jordan. Dayan consented, and, as a result, Jerusalem’s Jewish Quarter today flourishes.

Simultaneously, past Hebron inhabitants, who had been expelled in 1929, and again in 1936, requested a similar meeting with Dayan, in order to return to their homes in the recently liberated city of the Patriarchs and Matriarchs. Dayan refused to meet with them.

So I heard, years ago, from Hebron residents, some of whom no longer alive.

The story of Hebron’s Jewish property is a reason for heartache and chagrin. Hebron Jews lost most of their assets in their expulsion by the British following the 1929 riots. As I was told by a survivor of those riots: “My father wrote to the British High Commissioner and asked why the victims had been punished – why the Jews were expelled after being slaughtered. His answer: ‘I knew you couldn’t continue living together and being that there were more Arabs than Jews it was easier to expel the Jews.’”

The untainted authenticity of Jewish land ownership in Hebron is indisputable. The “Jewish Quarter,” presently known as the Avraham Avinu neighborhood, was originally populated by Karites some 1,000 years ago. This land was purchased from them by Rabbi Malchiel Ashkenazi, himself exiled to Turkey from Spain in 1492. In 1540 he bought that area from the Karites and moved, with a small community, to Hebron. This neighborhood existed until the 1929 riots, massacre and exile.

Five dunam (1.235 acres) of land adjacent to this place was purchased by Rabbi Chaim Bajaiyo for the community in 1807, from the Kashkol family in Hebron. This, too, remained in Jewish hands until 1929. In the early 1960s, this property was taken over and occupied by Hebron merchants, who built a retail and wholesale market at the site.

Yosef Ezra is a ninth generation Hebronite. He and his father, Ya’akov Ezra, were the last Jews to leave Hebron, after the Nov. 29, 1947 UN decision to partition Eretz Israel. His father, who worked closely with Arabs, produced cheese and other dairy products. He worked in Hebron during the week and spent Shabbat with his family in Jerusalem, until November, 1947, when Hebron’s Arabs told him not to return to this holy city.

The Ezra property, within the boundaries of these two areas, was stolen, according to Yossi Ezra, by the Awawi family, who had worked with his father. Then 15, Yosef Ezra still remembers this family, who worked for his father, grazing sheep.

Presently, there is no doubt whatsoever that this is Jewish land, and that there are no real, justifiable, legal Arab claims on this property. However, the State Attorney General’s office has decided that Arabs who lived on this land which they had stolen from Jews have “protected resident status” and refuses to allow Hebron’s Jewish community to utilize the property. This despite a ruling by an Israeli military judicial panel of three judges which concluded that there is a firm legal basis to allow the Hebron Jewish Community to use the land.

The state’s decision expressed the possibility that the property will be made available to Hebron’s Jewish community, after the families have been expelled.

We’ve been through this before. Back in January, 2006 the Israeli government made a similar promise, whereby, after the voluntary exit of homes in “Mitzpe Shalhevet,” other families would be allowed back in, with full permission and government permits. This offer was made with the knowledge and consent of the defense and prime ministers. After all the families had moved out, Attorney General Manny Mazuz killed the deal. We were left with nothing.

Albeit all the angry, bitter, and downright nasty articles and blogs which have been written on how Israel was defeated in its latest skirmish with the Hamas – that isn’t the case at all. We’re really the winner! Let me explain:

Firstly, on the simplest level, thanks to the grace of G-d, our casualties were far less than the Other Side’s. Regarding physical damage as well, the devastation on their side was far greater. So, just in terms of the way the military scorecard is usually figured, we were the victors by far.

In reply to the claim that the Hamas received a great boost in their morale in bringing mighty Israel to a cease fire, giving them added incentive for the next round – maybe. But their celebrations of victory are based on fantasy and lies, and their joy won’t last when we hit them ten times as hard the next time.

As far as the truce being a crushing blow to the morale of our own troops – my son and his friends in the army don’t seem any less gung ho about destroying the Hamas the next chance they get, so I think that claim has also been over-exaggerated. Our son was happy to be home for Shabbat, and we were happy too. Along with 30,000 other soldiers and their families.

Don’t accuse me of being a pacifist. Any reader who has been following my blog during the recent Israeli Air-Force exercise in Gaza knows that I would not have had any qualms at all if we had waited for a day when a stiff wind was blowing toward Cairo and dropped a small A-Bomb on Gaza City. But the time hasn’t yet come. Savlenut, my friends. Patience.

I am reminded of Rabbi Tzvi Yehuda Kook’s reaction when the United Nations voted in 1947 to partition the Palestine of the British Mandate which sliced Eretz Yisrael into pieces and awarded a truncated area to the Jews. When the news came over the radio that a Jewish State would be formed, a spontaneous joy swept over the country. People rushed out from their homes to dance in the streets. But Rav Tzvi Yehuda was crushed. The Land of Israel has been divided! Large portions of the country had been placed in foreign hands! Half of Jerusalem, Hevron, Shilo, Yericho, Shechem, and the other side of the Jordan River! Multitudes of Israelis were dancing through the streets, but in his staggering sorrow, Rav Tzvi Yehuda remained in his home. The Land of Israel had been divided! It was impossible for him to feel glad. He felt as if he himself had been cut into pieces.

The following day, Rabbi Yaacov Moshe Harlop, a close student and friend of Rav Tzvi Yehuda’s father, Rabbi Avraham Yitzhak HaKohen Kook, came to visit him in the old house on Yafo Street in Jerusalem. They sat in the room which Rabbi Kook had used as his study and huddled together, distraught over what had occurred. Then, finding encouragement in each other, and raising themselves up to Rabbi Kook’s famous all-encompassing vision, they quoted the verse of Psalms, “This is the Lord’s doing. It is wondrous in our eyes.” Finally, Rav Tzvi Yehuda mustered the strength to go out to the Nation, realizing, with faith in Hashem, that is was God’s doing, and that with the passing of time, the newborn Nation would overcome the great difficulties and gradually return to all of its Land – to Hevron, to the Temple Mount, to Shechem, to Gaza, and to the other side of the Jordan.

During the recent operation in Gaza, we wrote that the Redemption of Israel was a process which develops gradually over time, little by little, like the emerging of dawn, stage after stage, in the wars which Israel must fight against its enemies who strive to block out its light, in what is known as “the Footsteps of Mashiach.” While we would like to see our salvation and victory occur all at once, Presto, with one wave of Mashiach’s wand, the Master of the World, who is also the Master of War, has decided otherwise. After the trauma of our national disintegration in our exile in foreign lands, Hashem rebuilds our Nation gradually, war after war, development after development, slowly bringing us back to our true selves, the proud lions of Judah, completely devoted to Hashem and His Torah, not only as individuals, but as a proud Torah Nation in Israel.

Now, there’s a fine exercise in the diplomatic niceties one must endure when one is prime minister of a small state in the near east, surrounded by enemies, with few friends to spare, and one’s favorite candidate has come up short.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) met on Wednesday with U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, to congratulate him on his boss’s win the night before. Both men knew the score, both knew that if the other guy had won there would have been a genuine, huge smile on Bibi’s face, but God, as usual, insisted on His mysterious ways, and so, there you go.

If I were Bibi, then after that obligatory meeting I would have locked myself in my office with a good book and a box of Lady Godiva rich Belgian chocolates and sulked for a couple of hours.

Of all the things our side has lost last Tuesday, losing the chance for the inside track to the White House was the most painful. We’re doing OK with the Kremlin, but we desperately need someone who knows someone on Pennsylvania Avenue. Israel can’t afford four years of tense relations with the second term prez.

How’s about renaming Dizengoff Street  “Obama Boulevard”?

When Likud Minister of Communications, Welfare & Social Services Moshe Kahlon announced last week that he was staying off the ballot in his party’s upcoming primaries, the common explanation was that he didn’t think he could get himself into a realistic spot on the Likud candidates list, and preferred to quit while he was ahead.

In a government dedicated to making life easier for Business, Kahlon stood out as champion of the economic underdog. He was behind a bill to reduce electricity charges for poor families, and headed an inquiry into the impenetrable maze of Israeli bank fees. But he became an overnight minor messiah last year, when he issued permits to operators of virtual cellular phone services, creating real competition and bringing down rates by as much as 75%.

As Israelis erupted in the summer of 2011 with the “Cottage Cheese Protests,” occupying a section of gentrified South Tel Aviv along Sderot Rothschild, Kahlon, one of seven children of a family of oriental Jews, became Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s poster child for economic equality and bootstrapping innovation. Netanyahu famously told his cabinet ministers: “Be like Kahlon,” in finding inspired solutions to the economic travails of a large segment of Israeli society.

Late last week, while Netanyahu and Yisrael Beitenu leader, Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, were celebrating their earth-shattering union into a 42-seat juggernaut (which is expected to pick up between as many as 45 and as few as 35 seats in the next Knesset), rumors started floating (someone, obviously was floating them) that a new poll predicted 20 seats going Kahlon’s way should he head a new, social-reform oriented party.

Netanyahu appeared duly concerned by the news. During the Likud convention last Monday, Bibi grabbed his demure former poster child by the arm practically against his will, like Pepé Le Pew grabbing his beloved pussycat, declaring beamingly: “Moshe Kahlon has reassured me that he’s staying in the Likud.” At a Q&A in Élysée Palace, while French President François Hollande was looking on, Bibi dealt in similar fashion with the question regarding the possibility of a Kahlon exit, repeating his Monday’s statement almost verbatim.

This morning, it appears that Bibi’s worst nightmare is about to be realized, and this one could be a Sea change that would make the Likud Beitenu move seem like a parlor trick. According to Makor Rishon, retiring minister Moshe Kahlon has made a decision to return to political life after a two-week exile, and that he is about to announce very soon, maybe even today, Thursday, the creation of a new party.

Makor Rishon cites sources close to Kahlon who say he has been in contact with MK Rabbi Emil Haim Amsalem, who was expelled from Shas back in 2010 for entertaining some very unconventional views. Amsalem called on those who aren’t good enough scholars to become great Torah sages, and who have families that must be fed, to go to work, and not live on the dole. He also urged Haredim to enroll in National Service.

When Shas expelled the offending rabbi, they wanted their seat back, but he refused to oblige them and soon established the Whole Nation party (Am Shalem, a play on his last name). As a partner with Kahlon this moderate Haredi rabbi could prove to be an explosive vote getter, especially when confronting Shas’s new top man, Aryeh Deri, whose stint behind bars for a corruption conviction follows him wherever he goes.

As things stand this morning, Thursday, no announcements have been made by Kahlon, and the 20 seats the poll has awarded him so generously may have been born more by the frustration of old-time Likud members at the move to unite with Liberman, than a true measure of the popular communications minister’s strength. But speculations are starting to occupy the main headlines of Israel’s press, because Kahlon can truly capture the center with his economic-justice agenda in ways that others have not.

The polls show Kahlon getting his vote mainly from Likud, but also from Yair Lapid, Labor, Shas and even the leftist Meretz. And unlike all of the above, Kahlon enjoys the gravitas of a proven champion of social causes and a right-winger to boot.

Incidentally, the same Smith Institute poll that was ordered by Kahlon, gives his new party 27 seats should former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni join him, in which case Likud would receive only 30 seats.

Meanwhile, a brand new Mina Tzemach “Dahaf” poll shows that Labor with Kahlon in the number two spot ties Likud for first place with 32 seats each. This is the essence of the Sea change: with Kahlon out of the picture, according to Tzemach, Labor receives 23 seats, well behind Likud’s 37, and the right will hold 64 seats, compared to the left’s 56.

But if Kahlon does run, as part of Labor, it’s even Steven, with the right and the left each holding 60 seats.

And that’s when things typically get interesting in Israeli politics.

This picture was taken November 21, 2011, outside the Knesset, during a demonstration against the high cost of living. It started to rain and the protest signs got soaked. So they were hung up to dry on an improvised clothesline. The visible parts of each sign say “Bibi” and “R Finance” (the R is at the end of Sar, Minister).

Also drying in the Jerusalem wind is a makeshift raincoat, made from a garbage bag.

I suppose if you’re careful with your rally gadget maintenance, you should be able to re-use the same signs and the same raincoat for many years to come.

It’s another side benefit of a stable coalition government, I suppose…

One of the reasons cited for Netanyahu’s opting for a blitz election is that he wanted to deny his opponents the time needed for building a brand new centrist block that could defeat him. Indeed, in the last elections Netanyahu actually came second, after Tzipi Livni’s Kadima that ran with the slogan: “Tzipi or Bibi.” The Israeli voter picked Tzipi over Bibi by one seat – but Bibi turned out to be a more shrewd player, who managed to outmaneuver Tzipi.

This time around, knowing he could be facing Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu created the best possible situation for himself, given that he is still a very popular incumbent. As of today, more than 30% of Israelis see him as their next prime minister, while everyone else is scoring less than 20%.

Netanyahu had to call for new elections for several more reasons, the gravest of them being the new budget. As revenues were down last year, and with the country’s economy being affected by the rest of the world’s economies, the prime minister could not find strong support among his coalition partners for the new budget that probably would feature serious cuts combined with some tax increases.

Rather than risk his political future, Netanyahu opted for the smarter option of getting a fresh mandate from the voter and only then inflicting the necessary cruel and unusual things on the national budget.

The two juggernauts that are expected to get even more juggernauty on the right are Likud, which should push its current 27 seats to somewhere above 30, recapturing some of the votes that will be abandoning the Kadima party (which is currently sailing on a course that should lead it into an iceberg come election day) and Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu (Israel our Home), which could go up from its current 15 seats to as many as 18.

Liberman is expected to make a few changes in his party parliamentary list: he will probably drop the spirited MK Anastassia Michaeli, who made world headlines and scored major You Tube views when she poured a glass of water on unsuspecting Israeli-Arab MK Raleb Majadele during a heated committee meeting and then compounded her problems with a comment about gay people and suicide. Liberman may also dump current Tourism, Minister Stas Misezhnikov, who has developed a reputation for taking a personal interest in the wild entertainment Israel offers tourists after hours. On the other hand, Liberman has just acquired and made into his faction’s number two man the late PM Yitzhak Shamir’s son, Yair Shamir, who should be able to draw extra votes from the Likud and other Zionist right-wing parties. While current member Danny Ayalon has proven himself to be a very talented and popular politician and will probably move up on the list.

Liberman is a natural ally of Likud (he used to be chairman of the Likud and then served as Netanyahu’s chief of staff), but it is not difficult to imagine him allying with Ehud Olmert, in whose government he served both as minister and as vice premier.

Israeli politics is a lot more volatile than most, and Netanyahu is facing a serious threat, especially if Ehud Olmert is able to parachute back into the ring. In the end, we owe Bibi a debt of gratitude, regardless of the final results: at least it will be over quickly.

No one is expected to lose as much as the Kadima faction, which is the largest Knesset faction today, with 28 seats. At this point it is not expected to collect even ten seats. However, the political left-of-center coalition that gave life to Kadima under Ariel Sharon is in hot pursuit of a new vehicle these days. Relentless coalition builder and king maker Chaim Ramon is attempting to cobble together a winning ticket comprised of newcomer Yair Lapid, unseated former Kadima chair Tzipi Livni, and former prime minister Ehud Olmert, whose light sentence in a recent corruption trial should enable him to jump back into public life relatively unscathed.

Netanyahu may be the most popular leader in Israel today, but the Likud under his leadership could face a nightmare scenario. The Likud members who are associated with the settlement movement are furious with Netanyahu, and it may lead them to seek out a different party to trust with their votes.

For one thing, the Likud government has yet to adopt the recommendations of the Justice Levi committee, which urged Netanyahu to apply Israeli laws to the settlements in Judea and Samaria. For another, the same government has not actually finalized the status of Ariel University in Samaria. Add to that the shabby way in which Netanyahu has been treating that block’s champion Moshe Feiglin, and you could imagine a situation in which Likud’s wings are clipped just a little bit, despite Netanyahu’s numbers.

Recent polls have been promising Netanyahu’s Likud party a 68 seat majority in the 120-member Knesset, even without the support of Defense Minister Ehud Barak. But given a strong combination of Ramon’s creation with Labor and Meretz, supported by the Arab factions, the Haredi parties along with Shas could be tempted to join, for the right price.

United Torah Judaism is expected to retain its current five seats, and even increase it to six seats. Shas will have to find creative ways of overcoming the power struggle over its political leadership, between its former leader Aryeh Deri, free at last from a stint in prison, and its current boss, Interior Minister Eli Yishai. Rumors suggest that Shas’ spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef is planning to assign Deri to go after the post of mayor of Jerusalem, thus calming the water between the two men’s supporters. With this proviso (meaning Deri will not compete independently for a Knesset seat), Shas should be able to hold on to its 11 seats. A left-leaning coalition led by Olmert and supported by the two Ultra Orthodox parties and the Arabs could scramble Bibi’s best laid plans.

The Israel Labor Party, which today is down to single digits—having led every single government until 1977, and several more since—is expected to emerge from its grimmest period, under the leadership of former journalist Shelly Yachimovich. The polls are predicting better than 20 seats for Labor in the 19th Knesset–taking back the votes it lost to Kadima, making it the second largest faction.

Another party that has seen better days is Meretz. Back in 1992, with its 12 seats, Meretz was a senior partner in Yitzchak Rabin’s coalition government that gave us the Oslo Accords. These days, though, Meretz is down to three members, which could still give it a ticket into a left-leaning coalition, with a minor portfolio, assuming it passes the minimal 2% threshold. (Each Knesset seat is worth 0.8% of the vote – but only parties which earned 2% or more can cash their votes).

A left-leaning coalition will likely receive a vote of confidence from Hadash, The Democratic Front for Peace and Equality with its four members (three Arabs, one Jew), which will probably retain all or most of its seats. The Palestinian, Islamist faction Ra’am-Ta’al, with its four members, will also offer its tacit support to a left-of-center coalition government.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Haatzma’ut (Independence) faction currently has five members. The faction split from the Labor party in early 2011. This faction is expected to be one of the losers in the coming election, and it may not even be able to cross the 2% threshold . Barak is busy these days shopping for a possible new home, after it has been made clear to him that he would not be treated preferentially as a potential Likud member.

Habayit Hayehudi – New National Religious Party, and Ichud Leumi, the National Union, are expected to run together as the newest incarnation of the historic MaFDaL (National Religious Party, NRP). The two factions held seven seats altogether in the outgoing 18th Knesset. National Religious activists are hoping for a better showing in the coming election, pointing to NRP’s hold over between 10 and 12 seats from 1955 to 1977. But as of now, no reliable poll is predicting this kind of yield to the new, unified list.

It’s possible, though, that if the two parties do end up running as one list, they could end up with eight or nine seats rather than their current seven seats. Many voters were turned off by what they felt was an unnatural split between the parties in the last election and delivered their votes elsewhere in protest.

Still, both Religious-Zionist factions suffer from the fact that the National Religious voter does not feel beholden to them and usually prefers to bolster a major right-wing player such as Likud. I suspect that this sad fact of Israeli political life will be even more evident considering the serious security issues which will be facing the next Israeli government.

Though one advantage all the second-tier right-wing parties have over the Likud is that while many right-wing voters want the Likud to lead the coalition, they were very disappointed with the settlement freeze and and other Netanyahu-led actions that were against the wishes of his natural voting block, which might lead them to vote for the other right-wing potential coalition partners in order to keep the Netanyahu lead government in line.

Netanyahu has positioned himself as well as he can to lead the next coalition, but the cat’s not in the bag just yet. With everyone jockeying for positions and examining their options and partners we may see some serious changes in the landscape over the next few weeks.