Head of the Military Intelligence Directorate Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi spoke at the 13th annual Herzliya Conference on Thursday, where he delivered a comprehensive review of the strategic changes currently shaping the Middle East and the threats that such changes pose to Israel’s national security. THE IRANIAN THREAT

Maj. Gen. Kochavi related to the Iranian nuclear program, and was explicit in describing the great threat that Iran poses to the security of the State of Israel, describing it as Israel’s “primary threat”.

“We estimate that they will continue to advance their nuclear program,” he said, explaining that “Iran does not see a high chance of a military attack by the international community on [their] nuclear facilities.”

Maj. Gen. Kochavi said that the Iranian government is in possession of the necessary infrastructure to procure nuclear weapons. “Right now [Iran] has ten thousand spinning centrifuges and another five thousand have been installed,” he said, adding that “should the [President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] decide to move forward towards a bomb, they already have enough material for five or six bombs.”

Despite the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, Maj. Gen. Kochavi said, the international community still has the power to stop them. “The [international] pressure on Iran is intensifying and the economic sanctions are influencing Iran in the most significant way,” he said, adding that such sanctions will become an ever-more influential factor in the decision making in Iran. CHANGING MIDDLE EAST

The intelligence chief stated the IDF’s Intelligence Directorate has identified three central pillars around which the most significant changes influencing the region revolve: the economic situation, social upheaval and Islamization.

“The social upheaval is here to stay,” Maj. Gen. Kochavi said, referring to the massive political and social changes that have occurred throughout the Middle East in recent years. “It will continue to seethe and bubble and remain the central determining factor in the Middle East,” he said.

He explained that the social upheaval has removed many of the Middle East’s traditional power structures from authority, leaving room for radical Islam to take over. “[The upheaval] is becoming more violent every day, and it is creating a vacuum which is being filled with Islamist and Jihadist political factions,” he warned.

The Head of Military Intelligence said that while political turmoil abounds, governance has vanished and borders are being breached, leaving Israel surrounded by increasingly lawless areas. The lack of control, he says, is leading to the unfettered passage of weapons and munitions. “For the first time in decades Israel has four active borders which could open up from terror attacks,” Maj. Gen. Kochavi said. THE RISE OF TERROR IN SYRIA

Maj. Gen. Kochavi related to the sustained political turmoil in Syria, saying that there too radical Islamism has risen up to fill the void left by political instability. “For some of the [new terror] organizations, Israel is not the focus, but the moment they accomplish their Plan A – the fall of Assad, for instance – they will turn their energy towards Israel,” he said.

Elaborating on the situation in Syria, Maj. Gen. Kochavi said that “it is necessary to think of Syria not as a complete state, but as Assad’s state and the rebels’ state – which includes two thirds of Syria’s populated area.” He added that there are rebel enclaves camped all along the border in the Golan Heights from where they lead the day to day fighting.

“11 of 17 crossings [from Syria into the demilitarized UNDOF zone] are in the hands of the rebels, which enables the passage of refugees, weapons and even Jihadist elements,” Maj. Gen. Kochavi said.

The Head of Military Intelligence went on to say that Hezbollah, a traditional ally of Assad, is concerned that should he lose power, Iran may lose free passage through Syria to arm the Lebanese terror organization – a concern which has caused them to become involved in the conflict.

“Assad is intensifying cooperation with Hezbollah and Iran, which maintain a presence in Syria, and are the primary supports of his regime,” Maj. Gen. Kochavi said. “The damage of Syria’s demise would be very grave for them. Iran would lose its only Arab ally which borders Israel and thus lose the capability to open fire on Israel from Syria,” Maj. Gen. Kochavi said.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is offering gold worth more than $100,000 to anyone who will kill the Jewish U.S. Ambassador to Yemen, Gerald M. Feierstein, as well as more than $20,000 for anyone who kills a U.S. serviceman in Yemen.

According to the AP, the Yemeni-based AQAP has a media arm, the al-Malahem Foundation, which made the offers in an audiotape posted on its websites this past weekend. The offer is open for six months.

Al-Malahem Foundation also distributes the notorious  English-language Jihadist magazine Inspire.  That magazine was largely written by the Jihadi terrorists Anwar al-Awkaki and Samir Khan, both of whom were killed by the U.S. in the September, 2011 drone attacks.

According to Foreign Policy, the spring, 2012 issue of Inspire included a posthumously published article by Awlaki.  In that article Awlaki explained why it is permissible to kill any and all kinds of civilians in jihadist attacks, so long as the jihadi intent is pure:

If combatants and non-combatants are mixed together and integrated, it is allowed for the Muslims to attack them even if women, children, the elderly, farmers, merchants and slaves get killed but this should only be done with the intention of fighting the combatants.

Gerald M. Feierstein was sworn in as the U.S. Ambassador to Yemen on September 17, 2010.  Prior to his posting in Yemen, Feierstein served as Deputy Chief of Mission in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Feierstein has spent all of his foreign service abroad in the Middle East or Southeast Asia.  Between 2006 and 2008, Feierstein served in various positions in Washington, D.C. in the Bureau of Counterterrorism.  Since joining the Foreign Service in 1975, Feierstein has served in Pakistan, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Lebanon and Oman.

According to the U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group, the audio explained that the bounties were offered by Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) “to encourage our Muslim Ummah (nation), and to expand the circle of the jihad (holy war) by the masses.”

AQAP is regarded as the most dangerous branch of Osama bin Laden’s terrorist group.  In September, AQAP called for increased violence and protests directed at U.S. diplomats worldwide.  The terrorist attack on the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Benghazi Libya, which led to the death of U.S. Amb. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, is believed to have been carried out by AQAP.

On the day after the attack on the American compound in Benghazi, Mary Feierstein received a phone call from her diplomat husband, to assure her that he was fine.  Mrs. Feierstein told a Philadelphia-area newspaper on September 13, that her husband was not worried about his safety.

But that was before Ambassador Feierstein was specifically targeted by AQAP.

Feierstein’s religion is of particular concern. On numerous websites, much is made of Feierstein’s Jewishness, with the usual claims of Zionist control of foreign countries and connections to the Mossad.

For those who believe that the West has largely – and perhaps fatally – failed to understand the fundamental difference in ideology between Islam and that of the West, Ambassador Feierstein’s words in an August interview with the Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat provide little comfort.

When the interviewer asked Ambassador Feierstein about terroristic threats made by the Huthists, a fundamentalist rebel faction supported by Iran and al Qaeda that dominates the Northern region of Yemen, Feierstein laughed it off as if the Huthists are nothing more than bloviating school yard bullies.  In fact, the Huthists are religious fanatics who seek domination.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] In the north, the Huthists are raising the slogan of “Death to America, Death to Israel”. Do you think they are serious about this?

[Feierstein] (Laughing) Are they serious in wanting to kill us? I do not think so.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] You do not think so?

[Feierstein] No, I do not think so.

[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you consider the Huthists your enemies because they say that you are their enemies?

[Feierstein] No, and we say that for reasons of their own, the Huthists want to appear as or want to take the position of being hostile to the United States. We were never against the Huthists; we never agreed that they support terrorism. We did not participate in any military actions against them in the past few years. Our opinion is that the solution of this problem lies in national dialogue, negotiations, and reconciliation. In this practical way, the Huthists can come to the table, put forward their vision, and reach a solution. Thus, the United States was never against the Huthists and they know very well the reason why they are conducting this campaign against the United States. Nevertheless, we are worried about the growing cooperation between the Huthists and the Iranian government. If this continues, the Huthists would become Iranian agents in Yemen.

Five seats have been allocated to Yemen’s Jewish community in the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) by President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi.

The Sawa’a Organization for Anti-Discrimination published the announcement in a press release on Saturday, according to a report by Yemen Times.

The head of the organization, Fuad Al-Alawi, told the Times that the allocation of seats to Yemen’s Jewish community may be a step toward the inclusion of Yemeni Jews in the country’s political and governmental system.

The conference will discuss constitutional reforms and other matters, and will include 565 delegates.

Yemen’s constitution currently bans the nomination of Jewish electoral candidates.

Approximately 400 Jews live in Yemen, 75% of whom live in the Riada area of the Amran province.

Protesters attacked the US Embassy in Yemen on Thursday. The protesters breached the gates, took down and burnt the US flag, smashed windows, and burned down they security office at the entrance.

They did not manage to enter the main office building, and security guards opened fire on the protesters.

The body of a Yemenite Jewish leader who was stabbed to death in an anti-Semitic attack was brought to Israel for burial.

Aaron Joseph Zindani, 46, was stabbed in the neck and stomach in a market in the capital city of Sana’a in May.

His Muslim assailant accused Zindani of casting a spell on and ruining him, according to reports.

Zindani’s wife and five children accompanied the body to Israel, according to reports. The complicated operation was undertaken by the Jewish Agency with the assistance of the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

Some 200 to 300 Jews still live in Yemen, down from a high of 60,000. Most live in government housing in Sana’a, after they were evacuated from other areas for fear for their safety.

A  Yemenite Jew was killed in Yemen in December 2008 by a Muslim man who ordered Jews to convert or be killed. The killer was sentenced to death.

A leader of Yemen’s Jewish community was stabbed to death at a market in the capital of Sana’a.

The victim, identified in media reports as Harun Yusuf or Aaron Joseph Zindani, 50, reportedly was stabbed in the neck and in the stomach. He died Tuesday.

His Muslim assailant accused him of casting a spell on him and ruining him, according to reports.

Some 200 to 300 Jews still live in Yemen, down from a one-time high of 60,000. Most live in Sana’a in government housing after being evacuated from other areas of Yemen over fear for their safety.

In an interview with CNN Arabic, Yemen Chief Rabbi Yahia Youssef Moussa called on the country’s president to allow the Jewish community and other minority groups to have seats in the country’s parliament.

Jewish Agency for Israel Chairman Natan Sharansky said Tuesday that Zindani was murdered solely for being Jewish.

“We must do everything to protect the Jews of Yemen and Iran, and all the Jews of the world,” Sharansky said.

He was speaking at an event in Jerusalem for thousands of Jewish young adults from around the world who are in Israel as part of JAFI’s Israel Journey.

A  Yemenite Jew was killed in Yemen in December 2008 by a Muslim man who ordered Jews to convert or be killed. The killer was sentenced to death.

Tag this one under Road, Hell, and Good-intentions…

According to the pro-Saudi publication Asharq Al-Awsat, suspected Al Qaeda terrorist Mishaal al-Shadoukhi has contacted the Saudi embassy in Yemen to claim responsibility for the kidnapping of Saudi diplomat Abdullah Al-Khalidi on behalf of the Al Qaeda organization, demanding an unspecified ransom, as well as the release of prisoners held by Riyadh, in exchange for the diplomat’s release.

Mishaal al-Shadoukhi, who is on the Saudi government’s list of most wanted fugitives, was at one point a prisoner in Guantanamo Bay, and among the first detainees to be repatriated to Saudi Arabia.

Following his repatriation, he underwent a state-approved “Munasaha” rehabilitation program and was released.

Saudi Arabia’s “Munasaha” program is designed to get at the roots of terrorism in that country. It looks into the content of sermons, lectures, and religious gatherings in order to persuade people that extremism is not the way to move forward. As Saudi Gazette/Okaz reported, “the program combines the wisdom of a range of academics and experts in Shariah law to explain the ‘proper principles of Shariah law’ and includes women as advisors.” The program travels to areas targeted by the government due to their recent experiences and incidents of terror-related extremism.

Too bad that once al-Shadoukhi was fully rehabilitated, he fled to Yemen, rejoined Al Qaeda, and started kidnapping Saudi dignitaries for ransom.

Reuters reports that on Saturday the U S drone attacks killed at least 25 al-Qaida fighters, including one commander, while a Yemeni air force raid killed 20 more in the south, sources said on Saturday. These were the biggest air strikes since Yemen’s new president took office.

Al-Qaida forces have increased their operations in southern Yemen while the country was in political turmoil during months of turmoil, anticipating the resignation of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was replaced in a February election by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

Two al-Qaida fighters were killed late Friday while attempting to set off a bomb at a security checkpoint near the town of Mudiyah in the southern province of Abyan.