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January 19, 2017 / 21 Tevet, 5777

Posts Tagged ‘demographics’

Reports Show 1 Million Gap Between Estimates on Number of ‘Palestinians’

Wednesday, June 8th, 2016

The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee’s Subcommittee on Civil Affairs and Security in Judea and Samaria on Tuesday took a stab at figuring out just how many Arabs live in eastern Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria, where in the latter two no one has taken a scientific census in ages, and the numbers appear to be skewed according to the political leanings of the different sources.

Lies, Damned Lies, and PA Census Data

The CIA World Factbook, updated July 2015, estimates there are 2,785,366 “Palestinians” living in those three areas, a.k.a. the “West Bank.” The Knesset subcommittee’s discussion suggested this figure is more than a little inflated.

Subcommittee Chairman MK Mordhay Yogev (Habayit Hayehudi) opened the debate saying “this is our second discussion of this issue, and we’d like to focus on data regarding Area C which is our responsibility. When I served as Ephraim Brigade Commander, over a period of one year, we executed an accurate count of all the residents in the sector, including Tulkarm and Qalqilya. The State of Israel possesses the needed means to find out, and the State of Israel must find out what is the number of residents for whom it is responsible, and about whom it would have to reach future decisions.”

Head of the Operations Directorate of the Civil Administration Lt. Col. Eyal Zeevi began his part by stressing that the civil administration does not engage in demographic studies, and that the responsibility for that in all of Judea and Samaria belongs to the Palestinian Authority, according to the 1995 interim agreement between Israel and the PA. In that context Zeevi explained that the PA demographic data does not offer specific Area C-related figures. However, Avi Gur-Ari, Population Administration officer in the Civil Administration clarified that he does maintain reliable testing of the data received from the PA.

This came as a surprise to the chairman, who requested that the entire PA census, including the data for Area C, be given to his subcommittee, noting that since the data includes the names of individual communities it should be feasible to discern those communities that are included in Area C.

Zeevi said it wasn’t as simple as that, because some of the Arab villages are split between Area C and neighboring, PA-governed Areas A and B. Other villages border the Jerusalem municipality. “With all due respect for the chairman, I don’t think it can be done in the suggested schedule. To do this professionally would require time and resources, which the political echelon has not yet decided to allocate.”

Once in the Roll, Always on the Roll

Zeevi shared some of the most common problems with the Palestinian Authority census: for one thing, a resident who leaves the PA remains listed as a resident; and these residents are able to visit, register their children and return abroad. Zeevi estimates that as many as 15,000 residents are added to the PA census this way annually.

“The immigration data presented today is partial and pertains only to the Allenby bridge border crossing into Jordan,” Zeevi added, estimating that “over the past 15 years more than 175 thousand have left through the crossing and never returned.”

According to Zeevi, the registered Arab population who carry Palestinian ID cards in Judea and Samaria, not including eastern Jerusalem, is 2.63 million. He believes that with the current growth rate coefficient in 2020 there will be 3.28 million and by 2030 there will be more than 4 million Arabs in all of Judea and Samaria.

According to Avi Lekach from the Population and Immigration Authority, in eastern Jerusalem there are at least 300 thousand Arab residents. David Koren, a consultant to the Jerusalem Mayor, noted that while there are 316 thousand registered Arab residents in Jerusalem, there may be as many as 60 thousand Arabs from the PA who are seeking residency in Jerusalem as part of family reunions.

Italian-born Israeli demographer and statistician Prof. Sergio Della Pergola told the subcommittee that he believes there are some 2.4 Arab residents in Judea and Samaria today, and that the Jewish majority in all of Eretz Israel is only about 52% — which includes people who identify as Jewish but halakhically are not. In his opinion, the halakhically Jewish majority is long gone.

But former Ambassador Yoram Ettinger cited his own research which found that the birthrate balance has switched and that today’s Jewish birthrate is higher than the Arab. Ettinger also said that his research showed that by the end of 2015 there were only 1.75 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria.

Analyzing PA Eligible Voter Data Implies Even Lower Numbers

Back in 2013, Middle East analyst Dr. Guy Bechor cited the number of eligible PA voters in the 2012 local elections — 515 thousand — setting it as the number of adults 18 and older. If we add to it an identical number of people ages 0-18, we’ll get a little more than one million. Add the maximum figure of eastern Jerusalem Arabs and you’ll get a generous estimate of only 1.4 million Arabs. The number of Jews, incidentally, is comprised of 385 thousand in Judea and Samaria and 300 thousand in eastern Jerusalem, or close to 700 thousand in total.

MK Hilik Bar (Zionist Camp-Labor) said it was shameful that Israel does not know how many Arabs actually live in Area C. “We know how many Syrian tanks there are, but not how many civilians are living under our care,” he said, suggesting that whether Area C becomes part of Israel or is handed over to the PA, “we should know how many potential Arab citizens we’ll have in the state.”

JNi.Media

On Eve of 2016 Israel Boasts Population of 8.5 Million

Thursday, December 31st, 2015

(JNi.media) According to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, on December 31, 2015, Israel’s population is estimated at 8,462,000.

An estimated 6,335,000 are Jews (74.9% of the population). 1,757,000 are Arabs (20.7%). And 370,000 are classified as “other” (4.4%).

During 2015, the population of Israel grew by 2%.

During the year an estimated 176,700 babies were born, 74% Jewish, 23% Arab and 4.4% “other.”

An estimated 28,000 Olim arrived in Israel (this number clashes with preliminary figures provided by the UJA putting this figure at 33,000). The main countries the newcomers came from are France (25%), Ukraine (24%), Russia (23%), and the United States (9%).

These population estimates do not include the population of foreign workers living in Israel, which was estimated at about 192,000 at the end of 2014.

JNi.Media

Report: Arab Demographic Time Bomb Stopped Ticking

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

(JNi.media) Those learned books and articles urging “difficult” political choices by Israel based on the ever-present “ticking demographic time bomb” of a growing Arab population against a shrinking Jewish population should probably be scrapped. According to a Central Bureau of Statistics report offering selected data on the occasion of the International Child Day 2015, the difference in birth rates between the Jewish and Arab populations have declined significantly over the last decade.

Some 33% of Israel’s population are children under the age of 17. 41% of the Arab population are children, compared with about 31% of the Jewish population. The differences stem mainly from differences in fertility rates. Until the early 2000s, the average number of children a woman was expected to have during her lifetime was approximately 4.3 per Arab woman and 2.6 for a Jewish woman. These differences have declined significantly over the last decade. In 2014, the total fertility rate of an Arab woman was 3.17 children in her lifetime, compared with 3.11 for Jewish women. This marks a 26% decline in Arab births, and a 20% increase in Jewish births.

Incidentally, the fertility rate in France is 2.01 per woman. In Norway it is 1.9.

Among cities with 100,000 or more residents, B’nei B’rak is the youngest, with 47% children, and Tel Aviv the oldest — only 21% children.

At the end of 2014 there were 2.74 million Israeli children ages 0 – 17, constituting 33% of the overall population. 1.945 million of them were Jewish (71.0%), 713,000 Arabs (26.0%) and 82,000 (3.0%) were classified as “others.”

About 97% of Jewish children were born in Israel, and about 78% of them were born to fathers who were also born in Israel.

Most children in Israel live with two parents (about 92%). About 212,000 children (8%) live with only one parent. Most of the children who live in one-parent families live with their mother (93%).

Here’s a loaded statistic: percentage of TV ownership or cable or satellite TV subscription is lower in households with children than without. Also, the more children there are in the household, the lower the percentage of ownership of television, and cable or satellite subscription.

JNi.Media

Jewish New Year’s Eve: Israel Reaches 8.4M

Tuesday, September 8th, 2015

In the past year, the State of Israel has enlarged its population 1.9 percent, or 158,000 new citizens.

During this past year, 168,000 new Israelis were born and 42,000 died. In addition, 28,000 new olim arrived on aliyah – a 35 percent increase over last year.

The highest percent of new immigrants came from war-torn Ukraine (26 percent), closely followed by France (25 percent), where anti-Semitism is skyrocketing. Those populations were not far ahead of Russia, whose immigration statistic for the year was 21 percent. Immigration from the U.S. only reached nine percent.

Of the now 8.412 million people living in the State of Israel, 6.3 million – the vast majority (74.9 percent) – are Jews.

The next largest population (20.7 percent) in the country is comprised of Israeli Arabs, some 1.746 million people.

The rest (4.4 percent) – 366,000 – are a mix of residents who hail from various other ethnic groups and faiths.

It is believed by those who work in demographics in the Central Bureau of Statistics that Israel’s population will grow to 10 million sometime between 2025 and 2030.

Hana Levi Julian

4.8 Million Israelis Traveled Overseas in 2013

Thursday, June 12th, 2014

4.8 million Israelis traveled overseas in 2013, according to a report in Yisrael Hayom.

That’s an amazing number, considering there are only 8 million citizens in Israel. It’s also the highest ratio of travelers to citizens in the world.

It’s was a 11.6% increase from 2012, up from 4.3 million. The average traveler’s age is 40, and 900,000 Israelis traveled out more than once.

July and August accounted for 1.7 million Israelis abroad. If you add in the holidays in September and October, that number jumps to 2.7 million. An astounding one-third of the country was overseas at the same time.

With numbers like that, it’s no wonder Israel never feels crowded.

Quite interesting, the time when most Israelis stop flying out of Israel are during wars and national emergencies, when the number of travelers out of the country drops dramatically and people choose to stay in Israel.

Go figure.

Shalom Bear

8.081 Million Citizens in Israel on Rosh HaShana Eve

Monday, September 2nd, 2013

On the eve of Rosh Hashana 5774, the population of the State of Israel stands at 8.081 million people according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

75.1% of the population is Jewish, at 6.066 million people. 20.7% are Arabs at 1.67 million people, and 4.2% or 345,000 people fall into the category of ‘Other’ (Non-Arab Christians, and other minority religions).

It is estimated that there are 1.66 million Arabs living in Judea and Samaria.

The Israeli population rose since last year by 142,000 people, or 1.8% similar to previous years.

163,000 babies were born in 5773, and 40,000 people died.

19,000 people immigrated to Israel.

Shana Tova!

Jewish Press News Briefs

Disputed Territories: The Census of 1967

Tuesday, May 28th, 2013

After the Six-Day War, Israel counted the populace of the territories it had taken over in the recent war. On October 3rd 1967 the Central Bureau of Statistics  (CBS) published its initial findings – so the document we’re presenting today was actually never classified at all. We’re posting it here not because it’s been secret all these years, but simply because we’re not aware that it’s online. So now it is.

The document starts out by explaining its methodology: a one-day curfew was placed on each of the various areas, and hundreds of Arabic-speaking census-takers tried to reach every single home (except what they called the ‘wanderers’, presumably the tent-living Bedouin). Every family filled out a form and received a form of confirmation; 20% were asked to fill out comprehensive questionnaires. Since the populace expected potential benefits to accrue from being counted, the CBS reported that compliance had been very high.

The census was taken in August (beginning on the Golan Heights) and September.

On the Golan 6,400 people were enumerated, 2,900 of them in Magdel Shams.

In northern Sinai 33,000 people were counted, 30,000 of them in El-Arish; the Bedouin of the vast Sinai desert were not counted.

In Gaza the census found 356,000 people, about half (175,000) in refugee camps.

On the “West Bank” there were about 600,000, not including East Jerusalem.

(The population of East Jerusalem has been counted, since the Six Day War, in the column of Arabs in Israel, not in the occupied territories. This creates some amusing results, most noticeably when western media outlets who would never accept Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem routinely count its Palestinian population as part of the 20% of today’s Israeli population who are Arab; present-day demographic statistics routinely double-count the 300-plus Arabs of East Jerusalem as being both part of Israel’s Arab population and the population of the West Bank.)

Beyond the simple numbers, the editors of the report point at a number of possible explanations for the numbers. In Gaza, the Egyptian data from 1965 had about 100,000 additional people, or 25% more than the Israelis counted. Since only a few thousands left as a consequence of the war, and many of them were Egyptians from Sinai and not Gazans, the report assumed someone had been inflating numbers, perhaps by failing to register deaths.

The Jordanian numbers from 1961 were also larger than those identified here, and the editors felt this probably expressed a significant phenomenon of migration during the Jordanian period and after the Six Day War.

The populace of all the territories was very young, children between 0-14 making up the largest group in all areas. the editors were struck, however, by the imbalance between young men and young women; their conjecture being that the relative lack of young men reflected large-scale emigration of laborers.

Visit Israel’s Documented Story.

Yaacov Lozowick

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/blogs/guest-blog/disputed-territories-the-census-of-1967/2013/05/28/

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