The centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s attempt at resurrecting a modicum of friendship between his administration and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been that $300 million gift – America’s investment in the super smart anti-missile system, Iron Dome.

While the rockets were flying into Israel, we were told that, save for one time in which a Kiryat Malachi family was killed by a direct hit, the clever rockets, costing $35 to $50 thousand each (a Qassam rocket is estimated to costs about $800) took down around 90 percent of their incoming targets.

The way the Iron Dome works, we were told, is it analyzes the trajectory of the Arab missiles, picks out only those that appear to be headed at an Israeli civilian population, and takes them out. No muss, no fuss, it’s amazing what them science folks is coming up with these days.

Well, not so fast, Mrs. Lincoln, the show has a second act. For one thing, according to a NY Times story this morning (Weapons Experts Raise Doubts About Israel’s Antimissle System), the Israelis have lowered the success rate of the system to 84 percent, as opposed to 90 percent.

“No military system is 90 percent effective,” Philip E. Coyle III, who once ran the Pentagon’s weapons-testing program and recently left a White House security post (file under “disgruntled employee?”) told the Times.

Weapons expert Richard M. Lloyd told the Times his own analyses shows a success rate of only between 30 and 40 percent. “For the remaining targets, he judges that the interceptor was either badly aligned or too far away, at best leaving the rockets wounded or thrown off course…”

According to the critics, those explosions in the sky we’ve watched on You Tube, hailed as evidence of success, were, in most cases, just “interceptor warheads blowing up.”

A senior Israeli official denied that explanation, insisting that Iron Dome system was the best we have, and Israel’s Defense Ministry issued a statement deploring “baseless claims” that relied on “amateur YouTube videos.”

They said they were “more than content with the system’s impressive results.”

Sure, at $300 million and $50 thousand a pop, they’d better be.

The American Iron Dome backers told the Times it wasn’t so much that the Iron Dome was such a mega-futuristic technological success, but because the Dome’s targets are relatively slow, small and unsophisticated.

“They have no guidance system,” explained Riki Ellison, chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, “They’re not as accurate as missiles, so Israel doesn’t have to hit them all.”

That’s a lackluster endorsement if I’ve ever read one.

Immediately after the last Gaza war, in November, 2012, I wrote that the Iron Dome system was morally despicable, because “we are in the business of containing the terrorists and absorbing their attacks. We are definitely not in the business of killing the terrorists and freeing both our own people and the civilians suffering under the terrorist yoke across the border.”

Earlier, in a piece titled “The Morally Reprehensible ‘Iron Dome’ – Hamas’s Best Friend,” I wrote: “Israel has invented a magnificent tool that allows those truly horrible people to continue firing lengthy cylinders full of explosives at civilian men, women and children, without having to confront too often the fact that those are horrible criminals who should be either dead or in prison. We call it the Iron Dome.”

I concluded: “To be perfectly frank, Israel would have been much better off if the Iron Dome had proven to be a flop, like the U.S. made Patriot system, which is notorious for causing as much damage as it attempts to prevent.”

Now you understand why the Israelis and the Americans will be denying the Times’ scathing report to anyone who would listen. Because if the emperor is in dire need of a wardrobe, and the miraculous Iron Dome is kind of average – we’ll have to do something about Hamas.

And who wants that?

If you went strictly by the mainstream media reporting on the Defense Department’s recent announcement about missile defense, the thought in your head would be “we’re deploying more interceptor missiles because of North Korea.”

What’s probably not in your head is the auxiliary details.  DOD has requested that funding for the additional deployments begin in fiscal year 2014.  The actual deployments won’t start until after that.  Assuming DOD gets the funding, it will take until 2017 for the interceptors to be in place.  And the deployment, if it happens, will do no more than provide the ground-based interceptor baseline that was originally planned by the Bush II administration (44 interceptors), a baseline the Obama administration cut back to its current level (30 interceptors) in April 2009.

To put the last point another way: if the Obama DOD hadn’t cancelled the remaining ground-based interceptor (GBI) deployments in 2009, the 14 additional interceptors would already be deployed.

That said, the utility of deploying the additional GBIs – which would raise the deployed total from 30 to 44 – can justifiably be questioned, if former Secretary Bob Gates was right in 2009, when he said the 30 GBIs in Alaska and California were enough:

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told senators that 30 ground-based interceptors “provide a strong defense” against “the level of [missile] capability that North Korea has now and is likely to have for some years to come.” The system is designed to defend the United States against intermediate- and long-range missiles in the middle range of flight.

The North Korean satellite launch in December 2012 didn’t change the profile of the North Korean threat; it merely validated the predicted type of threat against which the GBIs were originally deployed.  Frankly, the 30 GBIs we already have in their silos probably are enough.

They are if the threat we’re worried about is North Korea, at any rate.  What if it’s not?  Suppose the threat we’re really concerned about is China?  It’s an interesting point, given the lack of precision or clearly-stated strategic purpose behind, basically, any move the Obama administration makes on missile defense.

Cancelling the Atlantic-side Missile defense

Consider the decision announced by DOD at the same time as the GBI augmentation: that the U.S. will cancel the fourth and final phase of Obama’s missile defense plan for Europe.  The European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) is the new plan Obama ordered up in 2009 when he cancelled George W. Bush’s plan to deploy GBIs to Europe.

GBIs in Poland would have provided missile defense for North America as well as for Europe against threats coming westward from Asia.  In Bush’s original plan, the GBIs would have started going into Poland in 2013.  (The GBIs in Alaska and California defend North America against threats coming eastward from Asia, or – to some extent – against missiles from East Asia coming over the North Pole).

Obama’s replacement plan for the cancelled Bush deployments was to develop a new, ground-based mobile interceptor out of the Navy’s shorter-range SM-3 missile, and eventually to deploy a follow-on interceptor, called the SM-3 IIB, which would have “some capability” against ICBMs.  The projected time frame for this deployment was to be 2020-22, some 7-9 years after the GBI deployment in Poland was to have begun.

A key weakness of this approach, however, has been that, for the purposes of defending North America, the geometry isn’t workable for using a new-generation SM-3 interceptor in Europe against an intercontinental ballistic missile from South Asia or the Middle East.  In September 2012, the National Research Council published an assessment of the prospects for defending North America using the EPAA deployment concept, and concluded that the prospects aren’t good.  Obtaining the NRC report costs $62, but fortunately, Defense Industry Daily has summarized its findings as follows (scroll down at the link):

[The NRC assessment] states that EPAA Phase IV is not likely to be an effective way to defend the United States, and recommends that the USA make changes to its own GMD system and radar set. They’re not advocating the dismantling of EPAA, just saying that the USA should have a system in which EPAA is about Europe’s defense, and the USA has a system that doesn’t depend on it.

More on that in a moment.

Reports that Israel will bring the Iron Dome system to Ben Gurion Airport for President Barack Obama to view because he won’t have time to visit its deployment elsewhere are half accurate. Another reason is that the Iron Dome is needed to protect the president in the event of an enemy missile when President Obama arrives, according to the DEBKAfile website, whose writers include former intelligence officers.

The battery of Iron Dome anti-missiles stationed north and south of Tel Aviv are not close enough to intercept a missile headed for the airport, the website explained.

When Air Force One touches down on the runway, U.S. and Israeli missile interceptors will be deployed in two defensive rings.

The chances of a missile attack are close to nil, but no one is taking any chances.

The cheering and the hugs exchanged by Israeli and American teams last week at Palmahim Air Force base, south of Tel Aviv, marked a historical turn of events.

For the first time ever, a successful test launch had been carried out of the Arrow 3 missile defense system, designed to stop Iranian long-range ballistic missiles – even those carrying nuclear warheads – in space.

The product of Israeli-American cooperation, and years of research and development led by the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), together with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Missile Defense Agency, the successful test represented a leap forward in missile defense technology, and a key development in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian arms race.

Travelling at twice the speed of a tank shell, the Arrow 3 interceptor is carried into space by a missile, which then falls away. The interceptor is actually a space vehicle that carries out several swift maneuvers as it locks on to its target. It then lunges directly at the incoming projectile, for a head-on collision.

At speeds of up to 4000 meters (13,123 feet) per second, the interceptor relies only on its self-generated kinetic energy to destroy the hostile missile, and does not require its own explosives to get the job done.

The successful trial underscores the fact that despite significant political differences that exist between Jerusalem and Washington, defense cooperation between the two countries is today at an unprecedented level.

The first batch of four Arrow 3 batteries is expected to come into service between 2014 and 2016. Four additional upgraded batteries, carrying more interceptors, could be built later.

Israeli and American companies are working together to get the Arrow 3 operational. The technological breakthroughs that allowed for the Arrow 3 to be tested have been led by IAI, but collaboration with Boeing has been significant.

Iran is amassing hundreds of missiles capable of striking Israel, while taking steps forward in its nuclear program. As the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv has recently noted, Iran has Shihab 3 missiles that put all of Israel in range, as well as the Ghadr-1, which is an upgraded version of the Shihab 3.

Tehran is also developing the Sajjil-2, a two-stage solid fuel missile that can strike targets 2,000 kilometers away. Any of these missiles can be fitted to carry unconventional warheads.

To cope with this ballistic missile challenge, as well as the threat posed by Syrian scuds, some of which have reached Hezbollah, Israel has the Arrow 2 missile defense system in place, which shoots down incoming projectiles in the upper atmosphere.

Once it becomes operational, the Arrow 3 will form another layer of defense over millions of Israelis, thereby giving the Israel Air Force two to three shots at intercepting incoming missile.

“We are in arms race. We hope to be one step ahead, technologically,” said defense source well acquainted with the Arrow 3 program.

As part of the race to protect its civilians, Israel has set up the Iron Dome rocket protection system, which intercepted over 90 percent of rockets from Gaza during last year’s conflict with Hamas .

Other projects under development include the David’s Sling system, designed to stop intermediate rockets and missiles, which are a part of Hezbollah’s arsenal of more than 60,000 rockets.

Despite the progress being made in this field, Israel can never rely solely on defense for its national security. In an unstable region filled with radical non-state actors, collapsing states, and an Iran marching towards nuclear weapons capabilities, defense can only form one part of the plan to keep Israel safe.

The other part involves devastating offensive capabilities, designed to surprise adversaries and throw them off balance, bringing any conflict to a swift conclusion.

Originally published at the Gatestone Institute, under the title, “U.S. Helping Israel’s Defense.”

The Iron Dome anti-missile defense system was tested near the city of Modi’in, located between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, before  being removed on Wednesday, Haaretz reported.

A battery stationed there would protect the Jerusalem area from rocket attacks. At least two rockets were fired from Gaza at Jerusalem during last November’s Operation Pillar of Defense, landing in open areas. One of them exploded close to an Arab village in Gush Etzion.

Iron Dome systems have been deployed throughout central Jerusalem for tests in recent days, according to reports.

Israel has five Iron Dome batteries, which have been stationed throughout the country as the need arises.

Last month, an Iron Dome battery stationed in the north was unusable for more than four weeks after sustaining flood damage in January. The battery was in storage when it flooded, damaging its electrical system, which has since been repaired and is now functional.

Rafael is offering its “Iron Dome” rocket interceptor to the Indian army, which would be using it against both government and rogue attacks anticipated from its Muslim neighbor Pakistan.

The “Iron Dome” has achieved an amazing 90 % kill rate in the last fighting in Gaza during Operation Pillar of Defense. And Rafael is developing its longer range rocket and missile interceptor – the “David’s Sling,” scheduled for completion in late 2014.

Last November, Rafael and the Israeli missile defense organization (IMDO) performed a successful test of the “David’s Sling” long range rocket interceptor system.

During the test, Israel’s homeland security portal iHLS reports, the Elta radar was operated in “shadow” mode while the target was detected by other sensors. In future tests, the Elta radar will be used as the main sensor.

The sensors detected the incoming long range rocket and, seconds, later the “Stunner” interceptor was launched and destroyed the target rocket. Sources said that the inert interceptor achieved a kinetic hit.

The “David’s Sling” is being developed as a “kinetic kill” system that will allow to verify that the threat has been eliminated.

The “David’s Sling” system is an additional part of the multi layered system Israel is building to defend itself against rockets and missiles. The essential layer in the system is the “Iron Dome.”

The “David’s Sling” will serve as the second layer, intercepting incoming rockets and cruise missiles from a range of 45 to 150 miles (this range is going to increase in the future), with the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 functioning as the third layer—against ballistic missiles.

Many countries in the world have realized that rockets of all types are not only a threat for troops but for civilians. That might affect the potential size of the market for anti rockets systems.

Due to the rising tensions in the countries neighboring Northern Israel, the IDF has recently positioned multiple “Iron Dome” anti-rocket systems around Israel’s north.

Some of the installations are nearby to Israeli Arab villages, and NRG/Maariv reports that today a group of Israeli Arabs cursed the IDF soldiers manning the installation, and pelted them with rocks till the police arrived.

A 14 year old Israeli Arab was arrested.

The IDF denies that the recent placement of  Iron Dome batteries has anything to do with the insurgency in Syria or the alleged chemical and game-changing weapon transfers.

The question is, why would Israeli Arabs hurl curses, harass and stone IDF soldiers — when the anti-rocket system protects them as well?

What a perplexing country we live in.

Visit the Muqata.

The IDF confirmed on Monday that it moved one of its five Iron Dome batteries—deployed successfully during its November Pillar of Defense offensive against Gaza rockets—to the vicinity of Haifa in the north. The army described the move as routine.

But the move comes while Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has renewed its warnings about the threat of Syrian chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands as a result of the civil war in Syria.

The IDF’s senior leadership is taking serious account of the changes occurring along the Israeli-Syrian border in the Golan Heights, and the General Staff has decided to prepare for every eventuality, says a press release issued by the IDF Spokesperson’s office.

Specifically, the IDF leadership has decided to strengthen the fence along the Syrian border while at the same time upgrading intelligence-gathering capabilities in the area.

The security issues of the Syrian civil war from Israel’s point of view include not only the fear of an attack, whether chemical or conventional, as the fighting in the area south of Damascus intensify – it also includes concerns about the flight of between half a million and two million displaced Syrians, among them thousands of Palestinians, who might attempt to rush the border into Israel.

In recent weeks, soldiers of the Gaash Formation, which defends the area, have worked extensively on this project, to enhance the area’s general security.

“All these elements are prepared for developments on the Syrian border and as preparation for the ‘day after’. We are preventing the possibility of future terror activity,” Gaash Formation Engineering Officer Lt. Col. Shai Unger, who is responsible for the project, explained.

“This project contains within it a significant procedure for strengthening intelligence gathering, by stationing radar and state-of-the-art cameras throughout the Golan Heights sector. Additionally, a barrier has been placed along the line of the fence which will provide added security to the surrounding communities,” Lt. Col. Unger expanded.

Work on the fence, which began a month ago, is now at an advanced stage. The fence is five meters in height, surrounded by tall wire fencing and trenches. So far, forces have constructed tens of kilometers of the fence, up to the southern areas of the Golan Heights which are near the border.

The fence construction is carried out in a similar fashion to that of the Hourglass Project on the Egyptian border, which has proved its effectiveness recently in preventing illegal border crossings.

“In the beginning, we chose to invest our efforts in the areas close to civilian communities, but I believe in the future we will equip the entire Golan Heights with the same kind of barrier,” Lt. Col. Unger explained.

There has been an increase in the number of forces stationed on the Syrian border. Whereas in the past the area was guarded by reservists, those forces have recently been replaced by soldiers from the Golani Reconnaissance Battalion, who carry out activities in the sector and provide security for the building of the fence.

Additional forces taking part in the activity include field intelligence forces that gather quality intelligence on developments on the other side of the border; the Barak Battalion forces of the Golani Brigade, stationed on Mount Hermon; and combat engineering forces of the Mechanical Engineering Team that are assisting in the construction of the fence.