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May 25, 2015 / 7 Sivan, 5775
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘poll’

Mahapach! מהפך – Likud Crushes Zionist Union

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

מהפך “Mahapach” – translated as upheaval or revolution, was the headline used by the Israeli media immediately following the 1977 elections when the Likud, led by Menachem Begin, won for the first time, changing the face of Israeli politics forever.

The overwhelming electoral victory yesterday by the Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, was nothing less than that, a revolution and upheaval, and most importantly, an absolutely clear mandate from the people to lead the coalition and the State of Israel.

With 99% of the votes counted, we’ll only see 1 seat change here or there as the percentages and deals are calculated.

The Likud is either at 29 or 30 seats, with an absolutely clear lead.

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24
Likud (Netanyahu): 29 (or 30)
The Joint (Arab) List: 14
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 (or 6)
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6
Meretz (Gal-On): 4
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

 

Both large parties, Likud and Zionist Union, won their seats by cannibalizing their smaller natural partners.

Bayit Yehudi made the biggest sacrifice for the Likud, with Bayit Yehudi voters heeding Netanyahu’s call to vote for Likud to guarantee Netanyahu a clear mandate..

Eli Yishai’s Yachad party did not make it into the Knesset.

Zahava Galon, the head of the Meretz party quit her party this morning, after winning only 4 seats.

LIVE: Initial Election Results – Who Won, Who Lost…

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

Here are the initial Exit Poll results from the 2015 elections for the 20th Knesset in Israel:

These are not final numbers, which can still change by the morning.

The configuration options assume that everyone goes with their natural partners. Other options is a National Unity government, or that some parties switch sides from their natural partners for a better offer.

It appears that PM Netanyahu is in the best position to form a coalition, but it will be dependent on Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu).

10:01 PM

Side by side comparison of the exit poll results:

Channel 10 2 1 Walla!
Party
Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 27 27 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27 28 27 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13 13 12 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8 8 9 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 12 12 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 9 10 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 6 6 6
Shas (Deri): 7 7 7 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5 5 5 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5 5 5 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0 0 0 0

 

Walla!

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Walla!):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 67

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 53

 

Channel 2

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 28
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 9
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 2):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

 

Channel 10 

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 10):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 56

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 64

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

A Coalition of Brothers

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

To date, everyone has talked about a Likud led coalition, a Labor (Zionist Union) led coalition, and a National Unity government.

But there’s another election possibility to consider.

In the outgoing coalition, Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) and Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) proved they could get what they wanted if they stood firm together against Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud); and so, this time around, once the votes are counted, the mid-size parties may quickly realize they can again get what they want, if they again pull the same trick.

What would happen if most of the mid-size parties pulled a “brother,” and created a united front, the United Center, if you will – led by Yair Lapid?

Consider the following configuration:

Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) = 33

The United-Middle is just 28 seats short of a coalition.

There’s actually no reason to assume that Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Litzman (UTJ) can’t find common ground – after all, while Lapid got to pass his Haredi draft law, in reality the law backfired and fewer Haredim now enter the army – so both sides have won (or lost).

UTJ’s 7 seats would put the United-Center at 40. UTJ also gets the added bonus of hurting Bayit Yehudi, whom they are still angry at from the previous coalition government, when Bennett joined with Lapid, excluding UTJ from the coalition.

The United-Middle then has the choice to invite either the Likud or the Zionist Union to join the coalition as junior partners (assuming Tzipi Livni hadn’t already split off her HaTnua party from the Zionist Union to join the United-Middle on the strength of her own 6 seats).

Yair Lapid has actually hinted that this is what he plans to do.

Lapid made it clear he won’t recommend Netanyahu, but he did not alternatively promise that he would recommend Herzog/Livni. Members of his own party implied that Lapid might recommend Lapid.

To counter this embarrassment of coming in as junior partners, the Likud and Herzog would try to form a National Unity government.

Labor (24) + Likud (21) = 45

Bringing in Bennett (13) gives them 58, and the first 3 from Yachad (excluding Marzel), if not alternatively the 7 from UTJ puts a National Unity government over the top at 61, 64 or 67.

Unfortunately, that configuration has one major flaw. Tzipi Livni.

Livni may decide to bolt to the United-Center rather than sit in a coalition with Bennett, and be in some crazy 3-way rotation with both Herzog and Netanyahu.

In which case, the numbers change to:

Likud (21) + Labor (16) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) = 57.

Four seats short.

Who would blink first?

Shas (7) would be the weakest link to bribe away from the United-Center, giving a National Unity government 64 seats. Lieberman might also switch sides if he sees things not going his way.

We are entering one of the most critical elections in Israel’s history, and absolutely everything is up for grabs.

It does appear that if the mid-sized parties try to flex too much muscle and get too greedy, we will end up with a National Unity government.

Clearly, as tense and crazy as this pre-election period has been, it won’t compare to what happens after the votes are counted.

GLZ Poll Puts Labor On Top – With a Coalition

Wednesday, March 11th, 2015

Completely opposite of the i24 News poll last week, a new poll by Galei Tzahal puts the Zionist Union (Labor) in a strong lead… and for the first time, Labor can actually form a coalition.

A Leftwingg coalition would necessitate the Arab party joining the coalition, which would be a stretch for them, as well as Kulanu joining the coalition, which on the other hand, would be an easy move.

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24

Likud (Netanyahu): 21

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7

Shas (Deri): 7

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 6

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 4
LEFT: Labor (24) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Meretz (6) = 62

RIGHT: Likud (21) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (4)= 58

The question remains, will UTJ (and perhaps Shas) be willing to sit with Yesh Atid (or Meretz) if it means getting their fingers back in the pie?

i24 Poll Gives Likud 5 Seat Lead

Sunday, March 8th, 2015

I24 News published the most radical poll results to date. They give Likud a 5 seat lead over Labor, with Shas starting to rebound.

Without a significant increase in seats for Bayit Yehudi, these numbers would make a National Unity government even more likely, where no one party, besides Labor, could break up Netanyahu’s coalition.

In the I24 poll, Yachad doesn’t make the cut.

Likud (Netanyahu): 26

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 21

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 8

Shas (Deri): 8

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 7

Meretz (Gal-On): 5

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

LEFT: Labor (21) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Meretz (5) = 58

RIGHT: Likud (26) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (8) + Shas (8) + Yisrael Beytenu (7) = 62

National Unity: Likud (26) + Labor (21) + Kulanu (8) + Shas (8) + Yisrael Beytenu (7) = 69

Latest Election Poll

Wednesday, March 4th, 2015

A new poll by Teleseker has the Likud back in the lead.

ELi Yishai is surging upward, and Meretz is dropping.

Likud (Netanyahu): 24

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 22

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 8

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 6

Shas (Deri): 6

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 4

LEFT: Labor (22) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Meretz (4) = 50

RIGHT: Likud (24) + Bayit Yehudi (12) + Kulanu (8) + UTJ (8) + Shas (6) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (6) = 70

New Poll Gives Herzog-Livni 3-Seat Lead but no Coalition

Wednesday, March 4th, 2015

The Likud party lost two Knesset seats and now would win only 21, compared with 24 for the Herzog-Livni “Zionist Camp,” according to a new poll published Wednesday and carried out by the highly reliable Panel Politics for the Knesset Channel.

Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, jumped up to 13 seats, along with the new United Arab List, and Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) is in neutral with 12 projected Knesset Members.

It is not clear where Lapid’s two seats went unless there are supporters of Netanyahu who would drift to Lapid. The other parties are holding steady, with Kulanu, headed by Moshe Kahlon, at eight seats, Shas and Yehadut HaTorah at seven seats each, Meretz with six, Yisrael Beiteinu with five and Yachad squeaking by with the minimum four mandates.

Lapid has said he will not sit in a coalition with Shas. Yisrael Beiteinu will not sit in a leftist coalition. That leaves Yitzchak Herzog and Tzipi Livni, who would be rotating prime ministers if they form the next government, with Meretz, Yesh Atid, and Kulanu as potential partners. Even if YeHadut HaTorah were to join and Lapid would not go ballistic, Herzog and Livni would have only 58 seats, three less than a majority.

The Arab List is not going to join, and if it did, Kulanu and YeHadut HaTorah would drop out. The best it can for Herzog and Livni is give it a security blanket on critical votes, but that would last for perhaps a day, maybe even two days.

Netanyahu can count on the Haredi parties, Yisrael Beiteinu, Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi and Yachad for a total of 64.

The big question mark is whether Yachad can win enough votes to enter the Knesset. If not, its ballots will go in the trash and larger parties would gain.

Another unknown factor is yesterday’s speech in Congress by Netanyahu, who is likely to gain one or two seats in the next poll.

Elections are on Wednesday in two weeks.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/new-poll-gives-herzog-livni-3-seat-lead-but-no-coalition/2015/03/04/

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