Israelis by a 4-to-1 margin are more confident than Palestinians in how President Barack Obama a handles his foreign policy, according to a Pew Research Center poll released Thursday.

The survey revealed that 61 percent of Israelis “express confidence in the American president to do the right thing regarding world affairs,” as opposed to 15 percent of Palestinian Authority Arabs.

Obama’s numbers among Israelis are a 12 point increase over when the same question was asked in 2011, reflecting the consensus after the president’s visit to Israel in March. His speeches were viewed in  Jerusalem and Ramallah won broad support from Israelis and anger from the Palestinian Authority.

The president’s emphasis on Israel’s security needs and the Jewish connection to the region stood in stark opposition to PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ continued refusal to recognize Israel as a Jewish state.

Asked to assess whether Obama should increase or decrease his role in peacemaking, or keep it at current levels, 49 percent of Israeli respondents wanted to see greater involvement, 29 percent the same level and 15 percent less involvement.

Among Palestinians, the numbers were 41 percent wanting greater involvement, 19 percent wanting the same and 26 percent wanting less.

American voters increasingly view President Barack Obama as anti-Israel, and he is seen as not supportive enough of Israel by a whopping 3-1 margin, according to a new poll from The Hill website.

The Obama administration repeatedly insists it is behind Israel, a message that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden brought to the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) policy conference Monday night.

The Hill has carried out polls on Obama’s support for Israel since 2011, and every one shows a deterioration in the President’s stand on Israel as seen by likely voters.

In May 2011, 27 percent of voters said Obama was too supportive of Israel, while 31 percent said he was not supportive enough. The latest poll reveals less than half as many – 13 percent – think he is too supportive while 39 percent see him as not giving enough support.

In the latest of likely voters, 30 percent responded that he is anti-Israel, and 28 percent said he is pro-Israel, nearly the same as a Hill poll in September 2011.

The results of the latest poll come two weeks before President Obama’s planned trip to Israel, where Iran will be a major item for discussion.

The negative numbers are in a large part influenced by Israel’s fears that the United States is not aggressive enough in stopping Iran’s nuclear program.

On the issue of making peace with the Palestinian Authority, voters are more supportive of President Obama’s being involved. The latest poll reveals that a majority of voters said that President Obama should be somewhat or very actively involved, more than twice the number in the May 2011 survey.

A new poll examining the anticipated voter turnouts among different segments of the population, predicts significant changes in the modes of voting this year, Ha’aretz reported Wednesday. This could mean the transfer of 3 to 4 votes from the right to the left, as compared with the regular polls which do not take into account the “unlikely voters” and their political leanings.

Now, before we dig into these claims, we have to consider both sources: Ha’aretz, which is directly involved in promoting left-wing politicians, and Proyect HaMidgam (the Sample Project), operated by Dr. Ariel Ayalon, which conducted the poll, and which is an Internet pollster. Those two factors weigh heavily on the numbers being provided, but they may still be correct about the trend.

Incidentally, Ha’aretz fails to mention the part about this being an online survey, as opposed to being conducted by the pesty and the jobless.

Based on the responses of a sample of 1200 Israelis who participated online, it turns out that right wing voters who took part in the last elections are showing “a lack of enthusiasm” about voting for the right wing block this time around. On the other hand, leftist voters are more charged and eager to vote for their parties’ lists.

The reluctance is most prevalent among those who voted Likud, Israel Beitenu, and Shas.

According to the survey, 62% of voters who skipped the polls in 2009 say they will vote this year (30% for sure, 32% positively considering it). Many of those have tied their decision to the 2011 summer of protests, saying that’s what shaped their decision to vote again. And 70% of those intend to vote left, only 30% right.

On the other hand, the same survey discovered that 5% of those who did vote in 2009 said explicitly that they intend not to vote this year. This represents some 160 thousand voters. Another 24%—about 750 thousand voters, said they’re undecided about voting this year.

And, according to the pollsters, the vast majority of those come from the right.

A few senior pollsters have commented on these results saying they show things are much more liquid than we’ve been anticipating. One result of this, they say, might be increased voting for the small, niche parties, which could either end up helping those parties cross the blocking percentage threshold (a party must win two full seats to enter the Knesset)—or it could cause the waste of a large percentage of the votes.

Israel’s election rules permit parties to sign agreements on sharing excess votes between them, meaning a party with more than, say, the number of votes needed for 5 seats, can contract to receive a second party’s extras, which might award the first party a sixth seat. But in order for that deal to be sanctioned, both parties must first cross the blocking percentage.

The poll was conducted on January 13 and 14, among 1200 participants, and was ordered by the Institute for Israel’s Future leadership, a think tank located in the souther town of Sderot.

As a right-wing voter who speaks to other right-wing voters in shul, in the supermarket, in public transportation—I must sadly state that anecdotally I can confirm this survey’s findings. Right wing voters in Israel have been swindled so many times by the elected representatives, that they’ve moved beyond cynicism, to a kind of apathy. We list our parties not according to what we expect them to do for us, but rather according to how fast they’ll betray us once we gave them our vote.

Shas must be the least trusted of all the right-wing parties (based on my personal, strictly anecdotal observation). Likud-Beitenu is next, with the average right-wing, National religious voter expecting it to form a left wing coalition. Jewish Home might score a little higher in our eyes, but watching its chairman, Naftali Bennett, flip-flopping, and refusing to answer some very important questions, especially on how he intends to deal with a Knesset list that combines culturally modern liberals such as himself and Uri Orbach, with others who advocate not renting to Arabs. And each new day brings new flips and flops, it appears.

And so, at least among people I talk to in shul, there’s a growing tendency to pick MKs Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad, about whom there’s a broad consensus that they will not vote for the 2-state solution, come hell or high water. And just like the nice pollster warned, this could end up with thousands of our votes ending up on the election committee’s floor.

Registration for running in the upcoming Knesset elections officially closed on Thursday, and for the first time we actually know who is running – and where.

34 parties are running.

Among those who elected to not run are Ehud Barak’s Atzmaut (Independence) party, the Green party, and the Eretz Yisrael Shelanu party.

The first poll to be released after registration was closed was run by Dialog.

The results of their poll is as follows:

Likud-Beytenu: 37
Labor: 20
Bayit Yehudi: 11
Shas: 10
Hatnua: 9
Yesh Atid: 7
Yahudut HaTorah: 6
Raam-Tal: 5
Meretz: 4
Am Shalem: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

The Dialog poll did not give any seats to Ben-Ari and Eldad’s Otzma L’Yisrael party.

The Manu Geva poll, on the other hand, as reported on Channel 2, gave Otmza L’Yisrael 3 seats.

In one of politics most recent ignominious flights from respectability, former New York Congressman Anthony Weiner resigned his office in June, 2011, after it was exposed that he had a habit of “sexting” young women he met online with pictures of his barely clad private parts.

But if  you have consigned Weiner to the bin of history or source of tasteless jokes, you may have underestimated him.

Weiner, 47, who used to represent part of the Rockaways section of New York City which was slammed by Hurricane Sandy a few weeks ago, wrote an op-ed along with Congressman Meeks, who still represents the area.  The op-ed, published in the New York Daily News yesterday, Nov 28, was essentially a call for more funding, better transportation and improved protection from natural disasters – some might also describe it as a stump speech – for a community that was devastated by the storm.

This is not the first time Weiner has reared his head since his awkward exit from office less than 18 months ago.  In fact, Weiner reactivated his infamous twitter account during Hurricane Sandy, when he issued a call for help for the besieged community.

Other than these few forays, Weiner has largely been mentioned in the news only as the other half of a power couple – his wife, Huma Mahmood Abedin, works as Deputy Chief of Staff and Assistant to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Abedin, an American of Pakistani descent, was the target of criticism by a small group of conservative members of Congress who were alarmed by her alleged connection to Islamist extremists, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

Cong. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and four other Republicans, including Cong. Trent Franks (R-AZ) and Cong. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) sent a letter to the U.S. State Department Deputy Inspector General this past summer.  In the letter, the congressmembers asked that there be an investigation into whether there has been an Islamist infiltration of the U.S. government, based upon research presented in various publications.  Abedin was specifically mentioned in that letter because her mother, her late father and her brother all were allegedly members of, or had connections to, Muslim Brotherhood organizations.

Those allegations ended up doing more harm to Bachmann and her colleagues than to Abedin, as not only Hillary and Bill Clinton defended her, but prominent Republicans such as Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Speaker of the House, Cong. John Boehner (R-OHIO), blasted Bachmann for conducting what they essentially called a witch hunt.

Anthony Weiner is Jewish and was widely considered one of Israel’s most ardent defenders in Congress.  Weiner and Abedin had a son, Jordan, over the summer.  The reception for Jordan’s bris was held in the multi-million dollar Park Avenue apartment the couple moved into after Weiner resigned from office.  The apartment is owned by Jack Rosen, head of the American Jewish Congress and a huge financial supporter of the Clintons.

If Weiner is considering another political run, he already has a potential campaign war chest of $ 3.9 million.

There has been talk that Weiner might be eying the New York City mayoral seat.  If so, a poll conducted this summer by NY1-Marist poll shows New Yorkers are not enthusiastic, with 58% responding that they did not want Weiner to run, and just 25% in favor.

That same poll asked New Yorkers for their take on several other potential NYC mayoral candidates, including another disgraced Jewish New York Democratic politician, Eliot Spitzer.  Spitzer fared only slightly better than Weiner, with 57% opposing his run and 30% in favor.  Spitzer, New York State’s former governor, was forced to resign his office in March, 2008, after his repeated liaisons with prostitutes was exposed.

Ma’agar Mochot (brain trust) poll conducted for the Channel 10 morning news program Tuesday reveals that the “Likud Beiteinu” list has preserved its wide lead over everyone else in the running. At the same time, former Kadima chair Tzipi Livni, who is about to announce her run at the helm of a new, center-left party, today at noon, Israel time, will receive as many as 9 seats, while the former king of the center-spot, journalist and TV host Yair Lapid, is crashing.

If the elections were held today, according to MM, the Likud-Beiteinu block would get 37 seats, which is 5 short of its current combined strebgth in the outgoing Knesset. Labor would get 20 seats, Shas 14, and Jewish Home, the National Religious party, 9 seats.

Tzipi Livni, who was deposed by Shaul Mofaz from the leadership of the Kadima party, is expected to announce a comeback at a press conference today, and the poll already gives her 9 seats, at the expense of prime minister wannabe Yair Lapid, whose list “Yesh Atid” (There is a future), whose future now appears murky with a mere 5 seats (down from 11 and 13 in earlier polls).

Mofaz and Kadima are not expected to make it into the Knesset this time around.

The Jewish far-left would maintain its 3-seat hold.

At the same time, should Tzipi Livni announce today that she will be running on the Labor list, then Likud-Beiteinu gets 38 seats, the fortified Labor goes up to 25, and Yair Lapid gets 8 seats.

Clearly, Tzipi Livni has a lot more to gain from running on her own, with eyes at a possible coalition government with Labor.

But, alas, such a coalition could not happen in the foreseeable future, not based on this morning’s poll, since the right-wing block is expected to collect 70 seats, based on today’s poll, while the center-left, including the Arab lists, would have 50 seats at most.

Surprisingly, 44 percent of those asked said they think Ehud Barak should stay on as defense minister, as opposed to 39% who’d like to see someone else in that post.

The following poll result were reported on the Knesset TV Channel, after the Cease Fire announcement:

• Likud: 33
• Labor: 24
• Bayit Yehudi:  13
• Yesh Atid:  11
• Shas: 10
• Yahadut HaTorah:  6
• Meretz:  6
• Otzma LYisrael:  4 (Michael Ben-Ari and Aryeh Eldad)
• Am Shalem: 3
• Balad:  3

Atzmaut (Ehud Barak), and Kadima (Shaul Mofaz) don’t pass the minimum level of votes to get any seats.

Likud has dropped since before the Gaza operation, when they were between 40-43 seats.

Here’s, the average of 2 polls published last week, Channel 2 and Jerusalem Post. The Post poll was conducted November 12-13 and the Channel 2 poll was published November 14.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 5 average in (brackets):

37.0 (38.0) [42] Likud Beitenu

21.5 (22.3) [08] Labor

13.0 (11.0) [--] Yesh Atid

11.0 (09.0) [07] National Union-Jewish Home

11.0 (13.0) [10] Shas

5.0 (5.6) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

4.5 (3.3) [03] Meretz

3.5 (3.6) [04] Hadash

3.5 (3.0) [03] Balad

3.0 (3.3) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

2.5 (3.6) [01] Am Shalem

2.5 (1.6) [05] Independence

2.0 (2.3) [28] Kadima

66.5 (69) [65] Right

53.5 (51) [55] Center-Left

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