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Posts Tagged ‘Likud Beiteinu’

Shock Knesset Poll: Lapid Runaway Victor in New Elections

Thursday, February 21st, 2013

A monthly poll carried out the Knesset Channel shows that Yair Lapid’s Future (Yesh Atid) party would win 30 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today, and Likud Beiteinu would be sliced to 22 seats.

The Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) party, headed by Naftali Bennett, would dislodge Labor as the third largest party with 15 seats.

The poll results by party:

  • Future – 30
  • Likud Beiteinu – 22
  • Jewish Home – 15
  • Labor – 13
  • Arab parties – 9
  • Shas – 9
  • Hareidi United Torah Judaism – 6
  • Livni – 4
  • Otzma – 3
  • Kadima – 2

The poll indicates that the surprising strength of the Future and Jewish Home parties in the January elections was not a fluke but rather reflected a serious demand by the Israeli public for a change, not only in faces but also in political honesty.

Bennett and Lapid are the only political party chairmen who are first-time Knesset Members, and they also campaigned with clear-cut red lines that won resounding approval. Lapid focused on his demand for the military draft to include Haredi men, and Bennett insisted that the time has come for the Palestinian Authority to start making concessions.

The Knesset poll shows that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s sluggish coalition efforts have made Bennett and Lapid even more popular.

The option of new elections is the least favorable to almost everyone, but the poll shows that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has more to worry about than anyone else.

His coalition-building efforts have sparked a full-fledged pre-Purim Fest among politicians.

Everyone is wearing masks to the point that some people, like Livni, already have lost their identities.

Netanyahu made a deal  with Tzipi Livni and appointed her in charge of the Justice ministry and the peace process after she did everything but spit on the Prime Minister in the elections. The deal threw the Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) into a frenzy, to the point that it supposedly is preparing for new elections.

Bennett wants the Prime Minister to cancel the deal, and he said Thursday night he wants to be named Finance Minister while Lapid, feeling his oats, now wants the post of Foreign Minister.

Coalition Carnival of Spins Turning into Purim Fest

Thursday, February 21st, 2013

Talks on a new government coalition have turned into spin after spin and bluff after bluff, with “everyone on first” and no one at home. Everyone is wearing masks to the point that some people, like Livni, already have lost their identities.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s deal with Tzipi Livni to appoint her in charge of the Justice ministry and the peace process have thrown the Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) into a frenzy to the point that it supposedly is preparing for new elections.

Party chairman Naftali Bennett said he wants the Prime Minister to cancel the deal, which is tantamount to asking Netanyahu to quit politics.

Meanwhile, if all the rumors can be believed, Shas will sign up with Netanyahu on Friday and Likud Beyteinu will somehow bring Jewish Home into the future government “soon.”

Another spin is that Netanyahu will go with Labor and the Haredi parties if Yair Lapid, chairman of the Future (Yesh Lapid) party and the Jewish Home don’t compromise on their campaign promises.

Knesset Member Shelly Yechimovich vowed during the electing campaign she would be Prime Minister or sit in the Opposition, and so far she has been a rarity as a politician and has kept her word. If she were to follow Livni’s act of giving up on ideals to gain a Cabinet position, she would be signing out as head of Labor.

Likud Continues to Sink, Left Rising, Jewish Home Third Largest

Friday, December 28th, 2012

It’s three and a half days before the January 22 election in Israel, and the major story continues to be Likud-Beiteinu’s downhill slide. The unhappy union of two major right-wing parties, which has been losing a seat a week since its inception, on Friday sank to 33 vote (down from their current 42) in the Yedioth-Dahaf-Mina Tzemach poll, which included an unusually large sample in Israeli terms – 1,250 likely voters, with a 2-3 seat margin of error.

The other big story is that the new beneficiary of Likud’s losses is no longer Naftali Bennett’s HaBayit HaYehudi, but the “near left” parties of Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid. These two personality-based lists are also siphoning off votes from Labor, which in Friday’s poll was clipped down to 17 seats. Lapid and Livni are holding 11 seats each

Naftali Bennett’s National Religious coalition received 12 seats in Friday’s poll, while Power to Israel scored 2 seats, same as its current presence.

Among the Haredi parties, Shas increased to 11 from its current 10 Knesset seats, Torah Judaism maintains its rise to 6 from the current 5 seats, and Rabbi Amsalem gets 2 seats, an increase of 1 from his current 1 seat.

The extreme leftist Meretz retains its 4 seats. The Arabs receive 11 seats – same as their current number.

The gap between the blocks is narrowing: Likud-Beiteinu, Jewish Home and Power to Israel get 47 seats, Labor, Livni, Lapid and Meretz get 43, the Haredi factions Shas, Torah Judaism and Amsalem get 19, and the Arabs 11.

The lower Likud-Beiteinu’s count, the less able will prime minister apparent Benjamin Netanyahu be to pick and choose among his potential government partners. In my humble opinion, his ideal coalition will include his own 33 seats (if the slide stops), Shas and Torah Judaism (17) and labor (17) for a stable, 67 member coalition.

This will create an interesting conundrum on the opposition side. According to the Knesset protocol, the head of the largest opposition party is appointed Opposition Leader – receiving a salary comparable to a government minister and getting monthly updates from the PM. However, should Naftali Bennett have the honor to head the largest opposition party, he would be facing 11 Arabs, 4 Meretz, and 22 Tzipi-Lapid members, all of whom fiercely oppose his platform.

In the past there was one case of rebellion against a coalition head under reverse circumstances, when Shas and Torah Judaism refused to accept the anti-Haredi Tomi Lapid (late father of the current Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid) as their representative.

This has a Supreme Court appeal written all over it. And guess who loses in Supreme Court appeals…

What to Do when your Partner Is under Indictment and It’s 3 Weeks before Election Day? Lie a Lot…

Thursday, December 27th, 2012

On Tuesday night, former Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman was questioned for 40 minutes at the offices of the Lahav 433 unit in Lod. The unit was inaugurated back in 2008, as part of the police intelligence unit, to investigate major crimes and corruption. Needless to say, it’s a very busy unit.

But they took time off their busy schedule, on the request of the prosecutor’s office, to ask Mr. Liberman some questions—a most unusual move, considering the fact that the case was already being presented to the court, or a minute or so before the submission.

This is because what was expected to be a walk in the park for Liberman may end up being a walk in the same park, but in prison garb and hauling a garden spade and a wheelbarrow. Why? Possibly because you can’t push around all the people all the time. On occasion, they push back.

A while ago, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon was asked by the prosecution whether or not Minister Liberman was involved in promoting the appointment of an ambassador to Belarus (a major no-no – these appointments must be made strictly by an appointments committee staffed by mostly civil servants and chaired by one Danny Ayalon). At the time, Ayalon could not, for the life of him, recall whether or not Liberman was influencing the process, or even if he was present in the room during the committee meetings.

Memory is a funny thing. Sometimes you forget something completely, and then something dramatic happens and, all of a sudden, you remember everything. In Ayalon’s case it had to do with the famous ride he allegedly took with his boss, FM Liberman, to a press conference where Liberman was going to announce the list of top Israel Beiteinu candidates for the Knesset. Allegedly, while in the car together, on the way to the event, Liberman turned to his deputy and informed him that, by the way, he’s not on the list.

There was wide speculation as to why Ayalon was being punished – in the end it was decided he was just too uppity for Liberman’s taste. Why, Ayalon was becoming very popular on his own, what with his facebook page and his You Tube clips, and the incident when he forced the Turkish ambassador to sit in a tiny chair just to humble him a bit. Ayalon was visibly shaken by the snub, but still managed to mumble to the press that he is there only to serve, blah blah blah.

Turns out, shortly thereafter, according to a prosecution leak, Danny Ayalon started remembering stuff. Suddenly—so goes the leak—the appointments committee chair recalled, for instance, that Liberman actually did influence the appointment of our man in Belarus (who is serving time as we speak for alerting Liberman regarding another investigation against him) – in fact, Liberman was in the room during the committee meeting.

Oops…

So now everything is going to change, because the prosecution smelled blood in the water, and so it told the court to wait a while, there’s new stuff coming, and Liberman found himself yet again before a police interrogator – or a few of them.

Liberman came to his police interrogation directly from the National Hall in Jerusalem, where he and his co-leader on the Likud-Beiteinu list, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, launched their the Knesset elections campaign.

A week ago, Liberman resigned from his post as Foreign Minister, so that he could get over the court case, or the plea agreement, quickly, in time for him to return to active campaigning. Now it’s no longer a sure thing. Not with the strong indications from the prosecution leaks that a new body of evidence is being accumulated against him, as, apparently, a few other committee members have started to recall stuff.

When you’re down and out, folks are no longer so deeply afraid of you. Even when you’re potentially down and out, some brave souls would find the courage to kick you a little further in the wrong direction on the slope.

Now Netanyahu is in a huge bind. First, he’s starting to get ready to absorb the ricochets from a potential Liberman conviction that would disable the latter for a while. First, he’s going to have to adjust to a smaller Knesset faction. From 42 seats in the outgoing 18th Knesset, he’s facing anywhere from 36 down to 32. Life with Liberman the liability will be far less comfortable than life with Liberman the asset.

Life with Tzipi: Likud Gaining in Wednesday’s Poll, Labor Down

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

It appears that the net effect of Tzipi Livni’s announcement that she’s running as the head of a new movement named after her (The Movement Led by Tzipi Livni is the official name, which probably limits the possibility of competition for chairmanship there at this time) has been to drive the Likud-Beiteinu list up a little bit at the expense of both the right and the center. And, as was to be expected, Livni’s votes are siphoned off of Labor’s and Kadima’s. One winner on the left: Meretz, which continues a slow rise from its current 3 seats. Finally: Torah Judaism will definitely increase its power from 5 to 6 seats in the next Knesset, based on sheer demographics alone.

The Meretz rise, according to Haaretz which published the poll, is that leftist voters have given up on Labor’s chances to actually form a coalition government, and so they choose to vote their heart rather than compromise needlessly.

And a similar sentiment is emerging on the right, as voters, secure in a Likud-headed government, seek to bolster its right-wing flank with a vote for Power to Israel (MKs Eldad and Ben-Ari).

So here are the numbers as of this morning, Wednesday, Nov. 28:

Likud-Beiteinu: 39 (was 35, current Knesset mandate 42)

Labor: 18 (was 23, current Knesset mandate 13)

Shas: 11 (was 14, current Knesset mandate 11)

Yair Lapid: 8 (was 13, current Knesset mandate 0)

Jewish Home (NRP): 8 (was 9, current Knesset mandate 7)

Tzipi Livni: 7 (was 0, current Knesset mandate 0)

Torah Judaism: 6 (was 6, current Knesset mandate 5)

Meretz: 5 (was 4, current Knesset mandate 3)

Rabbi Amsalem: (was 3, current Knesset mandate 1)

Kadima: 2 (was 5, current Knesset mandate 28)

Eldad & Ben-Ari: 2 (was 0, current Knesset mandate 2)

With Tzipi Livni Declaring Today, Polls Give Likud a Clear Lead

Tuesday, November 27th, 2012

Ma’agar Mochot (brain trust) poll conducted for the Channel 10 morning news program Tuesday reveals that the “Likud Beiteinu” list has preserved its wide lead over everyone else in the running. At the same time, former Kadima chair Tzipi Livni, who is about to announce her run at the helm of a new, center-left party, today at noon, Israel time, will receive as many as 9 seats, while the former king of the center-spot, journalist and TV host Yair Lapid, is crashing.

If the elections were held today, according to MM, the Likud-Beiteinu block would get 37 seats, which is 5 short of its current combined strebgth in the outgoing Knesset. Labor would get 20 seats, Shas 14, and Jewish Home, the National Religious party, 9 seats.

Tzipi Livni, who was deposed by Shaul Mofaz from the leadership of the Kadima party, is expected to announce a comeback at a press conference today, and the poll already gives her 9 seats, at the expense of prime minister wannabe Yair Lapid, whose list “Yesh Atid” (There is a future), whose future now appears murky with a mere 5 seats (down from 11 and 13 in earlier polls).

Mofaz and Kadima are not expected to make it into the Knesset this time around.

The Jewish far-left would maintain its 3-seat hold.

At the same time, should Tzipi Livni announce today that she will be running on the Labor list, then Likud-Beiteinu gets 38 seats, the fortified Labor goes up to 25, and Yair Lapid gets 8 seats.

Clearly, Tzipi Livni has a lot more to gain from running on her own, with eyes at a possible coalition government with Labor.

But, alas, such a coalition could not happen in the foreseeable future, not based on this morning’s poll, since the right-wing block is expected to collect 70 seats, based on today’s poll, while the center-left, including the Arab lists, would have 50 seats at most.

Surprisingly, 44 percent of those asked said they think Ehud Barak should stay on as defense minister, as opposed to 39% who’d like to see someone else in that post.

Post ‘Biberman’ Weekly Poll Average: 36.6 Likud-Beiteinu, 24.3 Labor

Monday, October 29th, 2012

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Oct 21-28) of 3 polls (Panels, Channel 2, Channel 10) conducted after “Biberman” merger:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 2 average in (brackets)

36.6 (41.2) [42] Likud Beiteinu

24.3 (19.7) [08] Labor

13.3 (12.7) [---] Yesh Atid

12 (10.5) [11] Shas

09 (08) [07] National Union-Jewish Home

05.3 (06) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 (04) [03] Meretz

04 (04) [04] Hadash

03.3 (04) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 (03) [03] Balad

02.6 (06) [28] Kadima

01 (0.7) [05] Independence

63 (66) [65] Right
57 (54) [55] Center-Left

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/blogs/knesset-jeremy/post-biberman-weekly-poll-average-36-6-likud-beiteinu-24-3-labor/2012/10/29/

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