Rubin Reports: Egypt’s Elections – Titanic of Western Interests Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary...
Egypt will hold its presidential election May 23-24 with a possible run-off June 16-17. It is impossible at this point to predict what’s going to happen but I can make a good guess. Eight weeks from now Egypt will be led by either a radical anti-American Islamist who wants to wipe Israel off the map or by a radical anti-American nationalist who just hates Israel passionately.
Moynihan was one of the first people to try to deal with the lurch leftward of the liberal and Democratic streams that is now so dangerously dominant in America.
How to respond to the misinformation and fear that makes a potential Romney voter a soft-core Obama supporter.
It is astonishing to note how much the Obama Administration, supposedly so sensitive to the views of Arabs and Muslims, has ignored the concerns of America’s own Arab allies.
Romney must respond to attacks like Gingrich or New Jersey governor Chris Christie would. A gentlemanly, gloves-on strategy will not win this election. This does not mean Romney should call Obama a socialist or Marxist. Instead, he should show that he’s the mainstream candidate while the Obama administration is out of step with historic, successful American practice.
It is the year 2012, people are walking around with smart phones and all sorts of undreamed of gadgets, the "Arab Spring" continues, and an African-American is president of the United States. Times have changed. Yet the hysterical hatred for Israel in the Arabic-speaking world and among Muslims in general has only increased; the philosophy of rejectionism is as strong as ever, or maybe even stronger.
The diagnosis being offered by Peter Beinart and his ilk is false and slanderous toward Israel and the solution being presented is false and dangerous to Israel. The goal is to get American Jews to adopt the basic anti-Israel narrative that paints Israel as the villain responsible for the lack of peace and ultimately delegitimizes Israel’s survival.
To view government as a form of deity or an inevitable friend of the poor and downtrodden is an illusion. Government is not a magic box, but a can of worms. To see it as a player, with its own interests, that should be as distrusted as any bank or corporation is the purest form of common sense, the very triumph of common sense over ideology and dogma that made America great, its people free, and real democracy possible.
As the Turkish PM continues to undermine Turkish democracy, throw hundreds of moderates into jail, destroy the nation’s institutions, support Iran, throw hysterical tantrums about how much he hates Israel, promote Islamism in the region, and is fresh from yet another meeting with Hamas leaders, Obama continues to use Erdogan as his guru.
The street thugs, fanatics, and mentally-twisted may be pulling the trigger, but the distinguished, the powerful, and the honored are providing the ammunition.
In 2012-2013, the vultures in the Middle East are coming home to roost. Of course, the main cause of developments in the region is the long, failed legacy of radical Arab nationalism which is now being replaced by what we’ll be calling in 20 or 30 years the long, failed legacy of revolutionary Islamism. But the secondary cause is the mistaken policy of President Barack Obama.
True, sanctions are hurting Iran but this regime is hardly delicate and gives every appearance of using negotiations only as a stalling tactic. Anybody who thinks the Iranian regime will crack under sanctions is living in wishful-thinking world. No matter how many chances Obama gives Iran, it’s still going to go full-speed ahead toward obtaining nuclear weapons and matching them up to long-range missiles.
Reality: Those who are, or will soon be, governing Egypt view themselves as being at war with Israel for all practical purposes. It matters relatively little that there is still a peace treaty. In Cairo, there are no thoughts of peace.
While war with Iran might eventually be inevitable and necessary, that’s not true at this moment - when Iran is far from being able to build nuclear weapons, much less deliver them on missiles. And such an operation does genuinely pose serious problems for Israel and also - even if it does not participate directly in any way - for the United States.
The difference between the Muslim Brotherhood and “Salafists” is purely tactical. The Brotherhood has learned how to maneuver politically, an advance similar to what Lenin instituted for the Marxists of his day. You can’t just declare a revolution and change everything overnight. And just as Lenin planned to get the capitalists to sell him the rope with which to hang them, the Brotherhood plots the same course with the infidels.
An uprising could take place due to some major or symbolic incident, forcing Palestinian leaders to rush to the front of the army. But least likely of all would be Abbas and the current leadership making a calculated decision to launch a war from which they would expect to benefit.
Whether he realizes it or not, President Obama changed history with his AIPAC speech. What he did is make a war between Israel and Iran almost inevitable - let’s say more than 90 percent probable - most likely some time in late 2013, 2014, or 2015.
The new Middle East strategic battle is heating up and this is only the start. It has nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with two more serious lines of battle: Arabs versus Persians and Sunni versus Shia Muslims.
It is now conceivable that the two leading presidential candidates will be Islamists and thus Egypt will have an Islamist president. That would mean the timetable for turning the country into an Islamist Sharia state could be vastly accelerated.
What is most notable about Russia's Middle East policy is that it tends to side with the extremist forces. These friends include primarily Iran, Syria, Hizbollah, and Hamas.
With the Obama Administration leading from behind and stressing the need for a UN consensus to do anything, it is now stuck with a passive stance on the Syrian civil war.
The Islamists are not “moderate” and many of the alleged moderates are not moderate. Hence, the hope for moderation and real democracy is limited by the small numbers of those who hold them.
On the surface, of course, there is apparent evidence to assume Israel will attack Iran. Yet any serious consideration of this scenario says this isn’t going to happen.
Should we feel good that democracy has functioned and that the people are getting what they want? Or should we feel bad that the people want a repressive dictatorship, the repression of women, the suppression of Christians, conflict with Israel, hatred of the West, and the freezing of Egyptian society into a straitjacket that can only lead to continue poverty and increasing suffering?
After an eight-month-long battle in which more than 3500 people have been killed, there’s no telling who will be ruling Syria when the dust settles, or even when the dust will settle.