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Posted on: March 21st, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
In 2012-2013, the vultures in the Middle East are coming home to roost. Of course, the main cause of developments in the region is the long, failed legacy of radical Arab nationalism which is now being replaced by what we’ll be calling in 20 or 30 years the long, failed legacy of revolutionary Islamism. But the secondary cause is the mistaken policy of President Barack Obama.
Posted on: March 20th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
True, sanctions are hurting Iran but this regime is hardly delicate and gives every appearance of using negotiations only as a stalling tactic. Anybody who thinks the Iranian regime will crack under sanctions is living in wishful-thinking world. No matter how many chances Obama gives Iran, it’s still going to go full-speed ahead toward obtaining nuclear weapons and matching them up to long-range missiles.
Posted on: March 16th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
Reality: Those who are, or will soon be, governing Egypt view themselves as being at war with Israel for all practical purposes. It matters relatively little that there is still a peace treaty. In Cairo, there are no thoughts of peace.
Posted on: March 14th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
While war with Iran might eventually be inevitable and necessary, that’s not true at this moment - when Iran is far from being able to build nuclear weapons, much less deliver them on missiles. And such an operation does genuinely pose serious problems for Israel and also - even if it does not participate directly in any way - for the United States.
Posted on: March 12th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
The difference between the Muslim Brotherhood and “Salafists” is purely tactical. The Brotherhood has learned how to maneuver politically, an advance similar to what Lenin instituted for the Marxists of his day. You can’t just declare a revolution and change everything overnight. And just as Lenin planned to get the capitalists to sell him the rope with which to hang them, the Brotherhood plots the same course with the infidels.
Posted on: March 7th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
An uprising could take place due to some major or symbolic incident, forcing Palestinian leaders to rush to the front of the army. But least likely of all would be Abbas and the current leadership making a calculated decision to launch a war from which they would expect to benefit.
Posted on: March 6th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
Whether he realizes it or not, President Obama changed history with his AIPAC speech. What he did is make a war between Israel and Iran almost inevitable - let’s say more than 90 percent probable - most likely some time in late 2013, 2014, or 2015.
Posted on: March 2nd, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
The new Middle East strategic battle is heating up and this is only the start. It has nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with two more serious lines of battle: Arabs versus Persians and Sunni versus Shia Muslims.
Posted on: February 23rd, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
It is now conceivable that the two leading presidential candidates will be Islamists and thus Egypt will have an Islamist president. That would mean the timetable for turning the country into an Islamist Sharia state could be vastly accelerated.
Posted on: February 16th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
What is most notable about Russia's Middle East policy is that it tends to side with the extremist forces. These friends include primarily Iran, Syria, Hizbollah, and Hamas.
Posted on: February 15th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
With the Obama Administration leading from behind and stressing the need for a UN consensus to do anything, it is now stuck with a passive stance on the Syrian civil war.
Posted on: February 6th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
The Islamists are not “moderate” and many of the alleged moderates are not moderate. Hence, the hope for moderation and real democracy is limited by the small numbers of those who hold them.
Posted on: January 26th, 2012InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
On the surface, of course, there is apparent evidence to assume Israel will attack Iran. Yet any serious consideration of this scenario says this isn’t going to happen.
Posted on: November 30th, 2011InDepth → Analysis → Rubin Reports
Should we feel good that democracy has functioned and that the people are getting what they want? Or should we feel bad that the people want a repressive dictatorship, the repression of women, the suppression of Christians, conflict with Israel, hatred of the West, and the freezing of Egyptian society into a straitjacket that can only lead to continue poverty and increasing suffering?
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