web analytics
April 20, 2014 / 20 Nisan, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Spa 1.2 Combining Modern Living in Traditional Jerusalem

A unique and prestigious residential project in now being built in Mekor Haim Street in Jerusalem.



Rubin Reports: What a War with Iran Really Means

An Israeli F-16 jet fighter gets air refueling as it accompanied by two additional F-16 jets

An Israeli F-16 jet fighter gets air refueling as it accompanied by two additional F-16 jets
Photo Credit: Kobi Gideon/FLASH90

Share Button

http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2012/03/no-picnic-what-war-with-iran-really.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Rubinreports+%28RubinReports%29

It is quite right to be worried and hesitant about entering a war with Iran. War, as recent events in Iraq and Afghanistan show, is a dangerous, bloody, often dirty mess in which things go wrong, civilians are killed inadvertently, your own side loses people, and goals are not necessarily achieved.

Sometimes war is necessary. That was clearly true in Afghanistan in 2001 but less clear regarding Iraq in 2003. What are the goals? How are they to be achieved ? In what way can a war be brought to an end? How is victory defined? These are all serious issues.

Regarding a war with Iran, all of the above is especially true. Iran is a large country with almost 80 million people. A sizeable portion of that population — the ones with the guns – is ideologically fanatical. The idea that a few planes will drop bombs, return home, and victory can then be declared is naïve.

Once begun, such a conflict will go on for many years and take unexpected turns. Iran’s regime would become desperate, vengeful, and -concluding it had nothing to lose- would be all the more determined to obtain nuclear weapons and far more likely to use them. Understanding that factor might not deter an attack completely but it should be very much taken into consideration in assessing what to do.

At any rate, while war with Iran might eventually be inevitable and necessary, that’s not true at this moment – when Iran is far from being able to build nuclear weapons, much less deliver them on missiles. And such an operation does genuinely pose serious problems for Israel and also – even if it does not participate directly in any way – for the United States.

On the positive side, not a single Arab state would lift a finger to help Iran. The moderates would be happy that Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, hope it succeeded, and demand that the United States keep them out of any fighting. The radical Sunni Islamists would worry about the precedent and broadcast some propaganda, but view the Iranian regime as a rival, not an ally. The Turkish regime would foam at the mouth but do nothing, while the Syrian regime – allied with Iran – is too preoccupied by a civil war and fears confrontation with Israel.

Hamas is happy to take Iran’s money but is now pretty much a client of Egypt. It might want to start its own war with Israel but doesn’t want to risk everything to defend Iran. But the Palestinian Resistance Committees and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will fire rockets on Israel while trying to attack in other ways. Up to a point, Hamas will stand aside and let them do so.

The most serious organized force on which Iran could depend would be Hizballah in Lebanon.

It is likely that Hizballah would fire rockets against Israel and mount some cross-border raids. The question is whether Hizballah would mount an all-out campaign as in 2006 or merely stick to a symbolic demonstration of loyalty to Iran. There are also Iranian forces in Lebanon that would be more active.

The large UNIFIL force supposed to block Hizballah from staging a military build-up in the south and attacking Israel will be useless. Yet Israeli defensive operations could end up accidentally killing UNFIL soldiers.

Finally, Iranian assets would stage terrorist attacks on Israelis and Jews all over the world. The number of attacks might be limited. The question is whether one or some would succeed in inflicting lots of casualties.

Still, Hizballah plus terror attacks is not a price too high for Israel to pay for ending—if that indeed can be accomplished—an Iranian nuclear threat. Yet the picture on the U.S. side is much more complex and worrisome.

In two ways, the U.S. situation would resemble that of Israel. No country other than Iran would hit at America or Americans; terrorism would be a problem. The rest of the story would depend on decisions made by Iran’s government and also by its local commanders.

Ostensibly, the attack on Iran would come from Israel. But even if the United States does nothing overt, Obama’s AIPAC speech is enough to associate America with the operation. Iran has a choice – It could decide to try to avoid confrontation with the United States.

Still, while Tehran’s decision could go either way, the worldview of that country’s rulers is unlikely to foster a calm, cool assessment along those lines. For them, America is the Great Satan, the Islamist revolution’s nemesis and Israel’s patron. Would Iran’s leaders really say: “Yes, let’s be ‘smart’ and keep the battle confined to Israel, using American reluctance to fight as a way to keep that superpower out of the war?”

Again, that might be how Western armchair strategists expect Iran to act but it’s hard to believe that’s what would happen. Moreover, local commanders of either military and naval units or terrorist cells, irrationally confident of an Allah-granted victory, would not easily give up a chance to wage the ultimate Jihad. Then too, Iran’s inability to hit Israel would set off frustration leading to attacks on Americans.

Share Button

About the Author: Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. See the GLORIA/MERIA site at www.gloria-center.org.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

No Responses to “Rubin Reports: What a War with Iran Really Means”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
BDS targets Zabar's; Carole Zabar promotes BDS proponents.
All in the Family: BDS Protests Zabars; Carole Zabar Promotes BDS
Latest Indepth Stories
Imam Suhail Webb who boasted his Muslim community persuaded Brandeis President Fred Lawrence to withdraw an invitation to Ayaan Hirsi Ali.

At Brandeis, much of what counts as Western civilization got cold feet and won’t stand with Hirsi Ali.

Text of anti-Semitic flyer distributed to Jews in Donetsk, Ukraine on Passover 2014.

But the lesson from this meditation is that hidden behind the anti-semitic act is the greatest light.

Yossi Klein HaLevi

As support of their messianic dream, Halevi and Antepli approve dishonoring Hirsi Ali as a ‘renegade.’

matza

If itis a mitzva to eat matza all Pesach, then why is there no berakha attached to it?

When we are united with unconditional love, no stone will be raised against us by our enemies.

The reporter simply reports the news, but it is greater to be inspired to better the situation.

The Big Bang theory marked the scientific community’s first sense of the universe having a beginning.

Freeing convicted murderers returns the status of Jewish existence to something less than sanctified.

“The bigger they are the harder they fall” describes what God had in mind for Olmert.

We, soldiers of the IDF, who stand guard over the people and the land, fulfill the hopes of the millions of Jewish people across the generations who sought freedom.

How much is the human mind able to grasp of the Divine?

Jews have brought the baggage of the galut (exile) mentality to the modern state of Israel.

The Haggadah is an instruction manual on how to survive as strangers in strange lands.

It’s finally happened. New York Times public editor Margaret Sullivan reported on her blog that “many readers…wrote to object to an [April 2] article…on the breakdown in peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians,” claiming “[they] found the headline misleading and the article itself lacking in context.” Ms. Sullivan provided one such letter, quoted the […]

Nor did it seem relevant that according to widely circulated media reports, Rev. Sharpton was caught on an FBI surveillance video discussing possible drug sales with an FBI agent.

More Articles from Barry Rubin
Youssef Ziedan

The interviewer responds, “There was also Balfour.”

peace_clowns

If the Obama/Kerry peace deal does go through, what would the risks be?

Let me make it plain. There will be mass murder, even genocide in Syria.

A large number of pro-Obama and radical or even anti-Israel cadre are Jews.

Does anyone think the Palestinian Authority will resist daily attacks from Hamas and Fatah radicals?

Secret Service security arrangements were overruled.

The Obama Administration plan is very simple, assuming that everything goes smoothly–which of course it will not.

The less you know about Islam, the better. Ignorance is strength.

    Latest Poll

    Now that Kerry's "Peace Talks" are apparently over, are you...?







    View Results

    Loading ... Loading ...

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/rubin-reports/rubin-reports-what-a-war-with-iran-really-means/2012/03/14/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: