web analytics
May 23, 2015 / 5 Sivan, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post


Rubin Reports: What a War with Iran Really Means

An Israeli F-16 jet fighter gets air refueling as it accompanied by two additional F-16 jets

An Israeli F-16 jet fighter gets air refueling as it accompanied by two additional F-16 jets
Photo Credit: Kobi Gideon/FLASH90

http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2012/03/no-picnic-what-war-with-iran-really.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Rubinreports+%28RubinReports%29

It is quite right to be worried and hesitant about entering a war with Iran. War, as recent events in Iraq and Afghanistan show, is a dangerous, bloody, often dirty mess in which things go wrong, civilians are killed inadvertently, your own side loses people, and goals are not necessarily achieved.

Sometimes war is necessary. That was clearly true in Afghanistan in 2001 but less clear regarding Iraq in 2003. What are the goals? How are they to be achieved ? In what way can a war be brought to an end? How is victory defined? These are all serious issues.

Regarding a war with Iran, all of the above is especially true. Iran is a large country with almost 80 million people. A sizeable portion of that population — the ones with the guns – is ideologically fanatical. The idea that a few planes will drop bombs, return home, and victory can then be declared is naïve.

Once begun, such a conflict will go on for many years and take unexpected turns. Iran’s regime would become desperate, vengeful, and -concluding it had nothing to lose- would be all the more determined to obtain nuclear weapons and far more likely to use them. Understanding that factor might not deter an attack completely but it should be very much taken into consideration in assessing what to do.

At any rate, while war with Iran might eventually be inevitable and necessary, that’s not true at this moment – when Iran is far from being able to build nuclear weapons, much less deliver them on missiles. And such an operation does genuinely pose serious problems for Israel and also – even if it does not participate directly in any way – for the United States.

On the positive side, not a single Arab state would lift a finger to help Iran. The moderates would be happy that Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, hope it succeeded, and demand that the United States keep them out of any fighting. The radical Sunni Islamists would worry about the precedent and broadcast some propaganda, but view the Iranian regime as a rival, not an ally. The Turkish regime would foam at the mouth but do nothing, while the Syrian regime – allied with Iran – is too preoccupied by a civil war and fears confrontation with Israel.

Hamas is happy to take Iran’s money but is now pretty much a client of Egypt. It might want to start its own war with Israel but doesn’t want to risk everything to defend Iran. But the Palestinian Resistance Committees and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will fire rockets on Israel while trying to attack in other ways. Up to a point, Hamas will stand aside and let them do so.

The most serious organized force on which Iran could depend would be Hizballah in Lebanon.

It is likely that Hizballah would fire rockets against Israel and mount some cross-border raids. The question is whether Hizballah would mount an all-out campaign as in 2006 or merely stick to a symbolic demonstration of loyalty to Iran. There are also Iranian forces in Lebanon that would be more active.

The large UNIFIL force supposed to block Hizballah from staging a military build-up in the south and attacking Israel will be useless. Yet Israeli defensive operations could end up accidentally killing UNFIL soldiers.

Finally, Iranian assets would stage terrorist attacks on Israelis and Jews all over the world. The number of attacks might be limited. The question is whether one or some would succeed in inflicting lots of casualties.

Still, Hizballah plus terror attacks is not a price too high for Israel to pay for ending—if that indeed can be accomplished—an Iranian nuclear threat. Yet the picture on the U.S. side is much more complex and worrisome.

In two ways, the U.S. situation would resemble that of Israel. No country other than Iran would hit at America or Americans; terrorism would be a problem. The rest of the story would depend on decisions made by Iran’s government and also by its local commanders.

Ostensibly, the attack on Iran would come from Israel. But even if the United States does nothing overt, Obama’s AIPAC speech is enough to associate America with the operation. Iran has a choice – It could decide to try to avoid confrontation with the United States.

Still, while Tehran’s decision could go either way, the worldview of that country’s rulers is unlikely to foster a calm, cool assessment along those lines. For them, America is the Great Satan, the Islamist revolution’s nemesis and Israel’s patron. Would Iran’s leaders really say: “Yes, let’s be ‘smart’ and keep the battle confined to Israel, using American reluctance to fight as a way to keep that superpower out of the war?”

Again, that might be how Western armchair strategists expect Iran to act but it’s hard to believe that’s what would happen. Moreover, local commanders of either military and naval units or terrorist cells, irrationally confident of an Allah-granted victory, would not easily give up a chance to wage the ultimate Jihad. Then too, Iran’s inability to hit Israel would set off frustration leading to attacks on Americans.

About the Author: Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. See the GLORIA/MERIA site at www.gloria-center.org.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “Rubin Reports: What a War with Iran Really Means”

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Tzipi Hotovely, new Deputy Foreign Minister.
Foreign Minister Hotovely: Tell the World ‘God Gave Israel to the Jews’
Latest Indepth Stories
Harris-052215

We take a whole person approach, giving our people assistance with whatever they need.

Shalev and Rabbi Levinger

During my spiritual journey I discovered G-d spoke to man only once, to the Jewish people at Sinai

MK Moshe-Feiglin

20 years after the great Ethiopian aliyah, we must treat them like everyone else; no better or worse

Sprecher-052215

Connecting Bamidbar&Shavuot is simple-A world without Torah is midbar; with Torah a blessed paradise

Many Black protesters compared Baltimore’s unrest to the Palestinian penchant of terrorism & rioting

She credited success to “mini” decisions-Small choices building on each other leading to big changes

Shavuot 1915, 200000 Jews were expelled; amongst the largest single expulsions since Roman times

Realizing there was no US military threat, Iran resumed, expanded & accelerated its nuclear program

“Enlightened Jews” who refuse to show chareidim the tolerance they insist we give to Arabs sicken me

Somewhat surprisingly, the Vatican’s unwelcome gesture was diametrically at odds with what President Obama signaled in an interview with the news outlet Al Arabiya.

The recent solid victory of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party produced something very different.

The reaction is so strong that nine times out of ten, parents engage in some form of coping mechanism before arriving at a level of acceptance of a special-needs diagnosis.

“…his neshamah reached out to us to have the zechus of Torah learning to take with him on his final journey.”

The gap isn’t between Israeli and American Jews-it’s between American Jews and the rest of the world

More Articles from Barry Rubin
Youssef Ziedan

The interviewer responds, “There was also Balfour.”

peace_clowns

If the Obama/Kerry peace deal does go through, what would the risks be?

Let me make it plain. There will be mass murder, even genocide in Syria.

A large number of pro-Obama and radical or even anti-Israel cadre are Jews.

Does anyone think the Palestinian Authority will resist daily attacks from Hamas and Fatah radicals?

Secret Service security arrangements were overruled.

The Obama Administration plan is very simple, assuming that everything goes smoothly–which of course it will not.

The less you know about Islam, the better. Ignorance is strength.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/rubin-reports/rubin-reports-what-a-war-with-iran-really-means/2012/03/14/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: