web analytics
September 19, 2014 / 24 Elul, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Apartment 758x530 Africa-Israel at the Israel Real Estate Exhibition in New York

Africa Israel Residences, part of the Africa Israel Investments Group led by international businessman Lev Leviev, will present 7 leading projects on the The Israel Real Estate Exhibition in New York on Sep 14-15, 2014.



Home » InDepth » Op-Eds »
CAST AWAY

Lies My Pollsters Told Me

Tens of thousand of votes cast by Torah observers ended up supporting leftist and Arab MKs.

Suzan, an Asian elephant whose current address is at the Jerusalem Biblical Zoo, casting her vote on election day, Jan. 22, 2013. Susan picked Peh Lamed – which stand for "Pil" – elephant in Hebrew.

Suzan, an Asian elephant whose current address is at the Jerusalem Biblical Zoo, casting her vote on election day, Jan. 22, 2013. Susan picked Peh Lamed – which stand for "Pil" – elephant in Hebrew.
Photo Credit: Uri Lenz/FLASH90

Th defeat of the pollsters in last week’s election should teach us a lesson. Once again it became clear that the public, which treats the election surveys like oracles, becomes addicted to what is merely a media gimmick, and falls prey to fantasy. Those who said this election would turn out to be the pollsters Yom Kippur were right. No one has been able to predict Yair Lapid’s stunning soaring to 19 seats; and no one was able to predict that the Likud— heaven forfend —would sink so low, to land only one seat above Yair Lapid. A true humiliation versus an incredible achievement.

In hindsight it appears that the surveys are a kind of superstition. An industry of illusions. Here’s one amazing example: On January 10, 12 days before the elections, on the days when the voters are solidifying their choices, Reshet Bet radio, in a show hosted by Ayala Chason, offered the survey findings of one Yossi Sarid (not the former Meretz MK). Sarid predicted the Likud-Beitenu would get between 34-35 seats, Yair Lapid 9, Meretz 4, Shas 9 and Power for Israel 2. All these predictions have turned out false. But the truly astonishing prediction of this “reliable” survey was that the list of “Ko’ach L’hashpia” (Power to Influence)—heralded by maverick Yemenite rabbi Amnon Yitzhak—would collect 4 seats. A minimum of 4, Saris claimed.

The pollster explained his delusional prediction, saying: “I know things that in a small-sample survey it’s very hard to detect. That’s one of the reasons I’m using very large samples, especially two weeks before the elections. I identify, as of this moment, four seats. And I won’t be surprised if it will be even more, in the end.”

Needless to say, they didn’t get 4 seats, and not even one measly seat. The party that promised “a loaf of bread for one shekel” burned 28,048 votes, which comprised 0.74% of the overall number of legitimate votes cast. This was a wild contrast to the arrogant announcement Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak had made in his Rosh Ha’ayin appearance, when he said: “I’m hoping for 18 seats; my following is ironclad.”

(The limitation on a list participating in the elections is that it must pass the qualifying threshold, which is currently 1.5% of the votes, or the equivalent of 2 Knesset seats.)

Along with those lost votes, there went 66,840 votes received by Power for Israel (which was promised by the pollsters between 2-6 seats, and its leaders promised at a press conference on November 13, 2012: “We’ll get more than 3 seats.”), and another 45,691 which were awarded to Am Shalem (Rabbi Amsalem’s list that was also prophesied an astonishing success—Rabbi Amsalem himself promised the financial website The Marker: “We’ll get more than 4 seats). And thousand more precious votes were wasted on esoteric lists like Breslav, Moreshet Avot, and other charlatans.

Once again it turned out that the Seker is a Sheker (literally – the survey is a lie), and that flattering surveys gave candidates a skewed view of reality. As a result, a myriad votes cast by Torah observant Jews were scattered and ended up supporting parties like Meretz and Hadash, Haneen Zuabi and Ahmad Tibi – and for that the pollsters should repent.

Let’s learn from this lesson to stop relying on surveys, once and for all – stop the addiction to this lie.

About the Author: Born in Tel Aviv in 1943. Graduated Bar Ilan University (Political Science and History) and Haifa University (Political Science). Chaired the Maariv political desk for 24 years. Married with children and grandchildren. Living in Raanana.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

One Response to “Lies My Pollsters Told Me”

  1. threshold is 2%, if it was 1.5% Eldad and Ben Ari would have been in.

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
Protest rally against Metropolitan Opera staging Death of Klinghoffer on 9/22 at 4:30 pm at the Met.
For Grass Roots Klinghoffer Protest 9/22, Jewish Establishment MIA
Latest Indepth Stories
IDF lone soldier and  David Menachem Gordon (z"l).

Why has his death been treated by some as an invitation for an emotional “autopsy”?

Starck-091914

SWOT analysis: Assessing resources, internal Strengths&Weaknesses; external Opportunities&Threats.

Kohn-091914

Strategy? For the longest time Obama couldn’t be bothered to have one against a sworn enemy.

Miller-091914

Seventeen visual skills are needed for success in school, sports, and everyday life.

We started The Jewish Press. Arnie was an integral part of the paper.

Fear alone is substantial; without fusing it to beauty, fear doesn’t reach its highest potential.

Fortunate are we to have Rosh Hashanah for repentance, a shofar to awaken heavenly mercy.

Arab leaders who want the US to stop Islamic State are afraid of being dubbed traitors and US agents

National Lawyers Guild:Sworn enemy of Israel & the legal arm of Palestinian terrorism since the ’70s

A little less than 10 percent of eligible Democratic voters came out on primary day, which translates into Mr. Cuomo having received the support of 6.2 percent of registered Democrats.

The reality, though, is that the Israeli “war crimes” scenario will likely be played out among highly partisan UN agencies, NGOs, and perhaps even the International Criminal Court.

Peace or the lack of it between Israel and the Palestinians matters not one whit when it comes to the long-term agenda of ISIS and other Islamists, nor does it affect any of the long-running inter-Arab conflicts and wars.

Rather than serving as a deterrent against terrorist attacks, Israel’s military strength and capabilities are instead looked at as an unfair advantage in the asymmetrical war in which it finds itself.

Sisi:”The religious nature of the Middle East creates challenges for the governing authorities.”

More Articles from Menachem Rahat
A smattering of Haredi yeshiva students standing outside the IDF Recruitment Office in Jerusalem. The mass demonstration organized for today is part of a giant fix, arranged between the anti-Haredi Finance Minister Yair Lapid and the Haredi establishment.

Nothing will change regarding the draft issue, as both Lapid and his Haredi opponents are collaborating on a fraud.

An illegal-aliyah boat, packed with Jews escaping post-Holocaust Europe, being taken into Haifa Harbor by the British. "The Holy One, blessed be He, will set up a king over them, whose decrees shall be as cruel as Haman's, whereby Israel shall engage in Tshuva-return" to the land.

“He who lives outside Eretz Israel is like one who does not have God” (Ketubot 110b)

Hungarian Haredi Rabbi Yisachar Shlomo Teichtal experienced a 180 degree change in his view of Zionism hiding from the Nazis.

Tens of thousand of votes cast by Torah observers ended up supporting leftist and Arab MKs.

The big question, of course, is where does the Jewish Home get its new votes?

Many forget that Netanyahu’s score on his actions during the Disengagement was a floor hugging 14%.

Have Feiglin and Hotoveli never heard about the Likud’s expulsions of Jews and destruction of Jewish homes?

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/lies-my-pollsters-told-me/2013/02/01/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: