Latest update: November 28th, 2011
The Syrian army is suffering from very low morale: many soldiers and officers have defected with their personal weapons, and they stand today in the front lines against the Syrian army. Soldiers don’t go on leave so that they will not be exposed to pressures from their families to desert, and so they will not see in the media the horror of what is happening in their country. Soldiers are fighting against the population because if they do not fight, they may be shot by their commanding officers. The Syrian army shoots demonstrators with machine guns, tanks and RPG missiles. Soldiers who desert, are organizing themselves into fighting groups who ambush military bases and military vehicles, mainly buses that are transporting soldiers.
Spokesmen of the Syrian regime repeat like parrots the mantra that everything that’s happening in Syria is a Zionist, American and Turkish plot, which is intended to uproot Syria from the resistance front against Israel and force it into subjugation to American-Zionist Imperialism. According to them, all of the demonstrations in Syria are a result of lies that are spread in “Al-Jazeera”, a communications channel in Qatar, and the thousands of video clips uploaded to the Internet, among them which give a record of events happening in the streets of Syria, are faked. The fatalities in the streets are “terrorist gangs” while Syrian soldiers are guarding the “last Arab fortress” after Libya fell victim to Euro-American Imperialism.
The pressure that encompasses Damascus also prevails in Tehran, and senior officials of the Iranian regime watch with much concern the decline of their Syrian outpost into oblivion. The entire political system structure that they built with much treasure and effort is in danger of collapse, because if the Syrian regime falls, then Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will lose their logistical and political support. Iran is now desperately seeking a replacement to Syria, and Iraq is the natural candidate for that.
Last week there was a meeting of the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Ja’fari, with the chief of staff of the Iraqi army, Field Marshall Babkar Zibari (an ethnic Kurd), who called on him publicly to broaden and deepen the military ties between Iran and Iraq because “America, Israel and some neighboring countries (meaning Saudi Arabia and Jordan) want to insert a wedge between the two peoples, the Iranian and the Iraqi”. The Iraqi military commander answered saying, “The People’s Mujahadeen Organization” (which is suspected of carrying out a sabotage attack at a missile base near Tehran two weeks ago) is an enemy of Iran and Iraq, and that the two countries must strengthen their ties in all levels”. The meaning of these words on the eve of America’s exit from Iraq, is clear: If the world does not wake up in time, Iraq will turn into an Iranian satellite, and all of the blood, effort and treasure that the Western countries have invested in Iraq since 2003 will have gone down the drain when the Iranians will reap the fruit of the elimination of their enemy number one, Saddam Hussein.
The addition of Iraq to the Iranian coalition poses a threat to all of Iraq’s neighbors: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Syria, and if Iraq turns into a base for launching missiles of the Iranian army it will greatly change the balance of power in the Middle East. This will be many times worse if Iran also becomes a nuclear power.
In summary: The coalition that Iran built, whose center is Syria, is currently undergoing a tremendous jolt. The fall of the Syrian regime – which the Arab world is stabbing in the back – is only a matter of time estimated at a few weeks. The Syrian regime feels the noose tightening around its neck and its cruelty increases accordingly. The Iranian regime is under pressure, and is marking Iraq as a substitute for Syria, and this threatens the whole region, especially Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The tension in the area is rising, and the Gulf is on the brink of a great crisis.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar
About the Author: Dr. Mordechai Kedar (Ph.D. Bar-Ilan U.) Served for 25 years in IDF Military Intelligence specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. A lecturer in Arabic at Bar-Ilan U., he is also an expert on Israeli Arabs.
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