Photo Credit: Avi Oyahon/GPO/FLASh90
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu surrounded by Israeli school children. The man who could be king.

The Myth of the “Demographic Threat” is older than the State of Israel.

…the Palestinian population living under Israeli control will soon surpass the Jewish population, and that Israel would be forced to abandon democracy if it wants to preserve its “Jewish character.” (972Mag)

One of the things I kept noticing when Arabs were a sizable portion of our Yafiz customers was the small size of their families. Not only did the Arab families who came to the Sha’ar Binyamin branch of Yafiz have fewer children than the local Jewish families, but the Arab businessmen visiting from Jordan and other countries to buy for their “kids back home” have only two or three of them.Israeli Jews, religious, traditional and even less so, are very child oriented and have more children than Jews in other parts of the world. And those who actually follow the numbers, the birthrates of Jews and non-Jews here in Israel see that the Jewish birthrate is rising while the Arab one is falling.

He {Yoram Ettinger} has found that the gap of the Jewish-Arab fertility rate (number of births per woman) has all but closed. Arab women in Israel had an average of 6 births more than their Jewish counterparts in 1969 – and this number has now shrunk a hundred-fold to 0.6. As of a year ago, the Arab rate was 3.17 births per woman, and 3.11 for Jews – and 3.4 when both spouses were Israeli-born.
Israel’s Jewish fertility rate exceeds the rate in most of the Muslim world. In Iran, for instance, women have an average of 1.83 births, and 2.12 in Saudi Arabia. Ettinger’s take is that the dropping Arab fertility rates reflect accelerated modernity, while “the Jewish fertility rate is bolstered by optimism, patriotism, attachment to roots and collective responsibility.”
The number of Jewish births in Israel has risen hugely over the last two decades, from 80,400 in 1995, to 136,000 last year – a 68% increase. Over the same period, the annual number of Arab births in pre-1967 Israel has stabilized at 40,000. In 1995, Jewish births constituted 69% of total births in Israel, but are now approaching 78%.
In Judea and Samaria, the Arab birth rate has dropped drastically, from 5 births per woman 20 years ago to 2.76 in 2015. (Israeli demographics working in Jews’ favor)

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And when you add this to immigration and emigration statistics, you can easily see that we Jews are not in demographic danger. Those who still say that we must leave Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley for demographic reasons are not telling the truth.

 

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3 COMMENTS

  1. The demographic bomb is nothing but a demographic dud. Another lie by the Palestinians who fabricated their census results since they’ve taken over those functions after signing of the Oslo Accords. This is just a measure to pressure Israel into making more and more concessions without receiving the security it so deserves.

    Please like our page where we take pride in debunking Palestinian lies like this one. And stop believing their lies.

  2. This news hasn't reached the upper echelon of American mid-east policy operatives. A ta lecture by Dennis Ross, I questioned , based on Ettinger's results, Ross' assumption of much higher Arab birthrate. He answered that he gave much more credence to the official nmbers.

  3. I reprint my response to the INN article about Mr.Ettinger's optimistic prognosis.

    Once again INN has defined Mr. Ettinger as an "expert" demographer and presented his assessment of Jewish arab populations and population growth. Nowhere on the internet can I find where Mr. Ettinger has studied population biology to substantiate his being called an expert in demography. A quick look at some of the above overly optimistic findings:

    1. The 66% Jewish majority in "entirety of the Land of Israel" does not include Gaza. Many on the right have lopped off Gaza from Eretz Yisrael west of the Jordan in order to "improve" the demographic picture. As a former resident of Gush Katif I resent this exclusion.
    2. Mr. Ettinger states that there are 6.6 million Israeli Jews. According to the Israel Bureau of Statistics (IBS), there were 6.21 million Jews at the end of 2014.
    3. The 136,000 Jewish births includes "Jews and others" (IBS); presumbly this includes Christians and Druze citizens
    4. Mr. Ettinger states that the fertility of Arab women is 3.17 while IBS states that figure as 3.35 for 2014.

    The most serious problem with Mr. Ettinger's conclusion of demographic paradise is that he only considers birth rate; albeit improving from the Jewish perspective. The percentage of Jewish Israelis has been decreasing for decades (1984: 82.6%; 1990:81.9%; 2000:77.8%; 2014: 75.0% – from IBS). This is because population growth depends on other factors besides births, such as age at first reproduction, population age structure (both heavily in the arab favor) and migration. It behooves INN to find a serious demographer with the proper educational background to present the true demographic picture without ideological bias; the readership will be better served.

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