Photo Credit: Abir Sultan/FLASH90
An Israeli maternity ward. In 2014, Israel's Jewish fertility rate (the average number of births per woman) stood at 3.04, and 3.42 when both Jewish spouses are Israeli-born. The Judea and Samaria Arabs were down from 5 in 2000 to 2.91 in 2013.

According to a March 17, 2006 Gallup Poll survey, preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates: Israeli Jews aspired to 3.7 births per woman, while Palestinians aspired to 4.7 births.  Although, 2014 indicates compatibility with Jewish preference, Palestinian fertility is decreasing much faster than expected by Gallup.

All doomsday demographic projections have failed due to their reliance on past demographic data, underestimating Jewish fertility, overestimating Arab fertility and discarding the feasibility of significant waves of Aliyah (Jewish immigration). Since 1898 and 1944, the demographic establishment has issued multiple projections on the ostensible inevitability of an Arab majority in the Land of Israel, attempting to scare Zionist leaders into inaction and retreat.  In 1967, Prime Minister Eshkol was urged to evacuate Judea and Samaria, lest there be an Arab majority by 1987.  On July 6, 1987, Prof. Arnon Sofer contended that an Arab majority was expected by 2000. Together with Prof. Sergio DellaPergolla, they dismissed any prospect of Jewish immigration from the USSR.  In fact, one million Jews arrived!  A pro-active Aliyah policy could produce 500,000 Olim in the next ten years, catapulting the Jewish majority in Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel to 80% by 2035.

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The demography of doom distorts reality, instills pessimism, subordinates long-term strategic vision to baseless fatalism, rationalizes a policy of submission to pressure and self-destructive retreat, intensifies global pressure and radicalizes Arab demands, thus promoting violence and undermining peace.

Will Secretary Kerry embrace demographic reality, which highlights a robust Jewish demographic tailwind and not an Arab demographic time bomb?!

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Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger is consultant to Israel’s Cabinet members and Israeli legislators, and lecturer in the U.S., Canada and Israel on Israel’s unique contributions to American interests, the foundations of U.S.-Israel relations, the Iranian threat, and Jewish-Arab issues.

10 COMMENTS

  1. With an anti-Semitic Western press it is difficult to get to the real truth regarding Israel. For objectivity it is important to also take note of the Israeli press which is mostly more reliable.

  2. John Kerry has been known as Hanoi John in honor of his traitorous conduct in 1960's. then he wrote and bragged in his book "Winter Soldier" about his UNAUTHORIZED meetings with North Viet Cong leaders in Paris at a peace convention, then in 2004 had all his books confiscated from Public Libraries and from Sales. He's never changed.

  3. If Israel would apply the Sovereignty plan over Judea and Samaria and deport the terrorists or those who don't want to live under Jewish sovereignty, the more peaceful state might attract more Jews from the diaspora. That would certainly help the demographics.

  4. If the Jewish Nation and its people are foolish enough to listen to an believe anything that Kerry or Obama say then they deserve what horrors that it brings Americans have been learning the hard way that obama lies and cares only for his personal ambitions and every one has know for years that Kerry was a liar and turn coat of the lowest order. So if you want to preserve the Jewish Nation and people, stay away from these two liars and their traitorous ways or end up like the Jews of the Hitler generation did.

  5. Give Kerry his Nobel "peace"prize, and then tell his to stay away and give the same mesaage to Omama, to keep out of Israel.
    They are trying so hard to destroy Israel. But the joke is on them.
    Israel will be here long after our enemies have disappeared.
    This is a repeat of the old history. Those who have tried to destroy the Jews have been destroyed. The Jews are here, and will always be here..

  6. makes me think of how Pharaoh oppressed the Israelites as they were growing in numbers and he gave the order for the midwives to kill all male babies born to the Israelites, Still the Lord G-d saw their plight and delivered them out of slavery, so why should Israel fear Kerry or Obama?

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