It was barely two weeks ago that the Obama administration warned Russia that a continued military buildup in Syria risked a confrontation with the United States. As President Obama put it, Russia’s actions amounted to a “strategy that’s doomed to failure.”
So we were struck by the administration’s call last week for coordinated action with Moscow in Syria to avoid accidental escalations. As The New York Times phrased it, “[t]he diplomatic initiative amounted to a pivot for the Obama administration.” What happened in the interim, reported the Times, was Mr. Putin’s dispatch of combat aircraft to Syria by virtue of which “the White House seemed to acknowledge that the Kremlin had effectively changed the calculus in Syria in a way that would not be soon reversed despite vigorous American objections.”
In addition, while President Obama has long stated that Syrian President Assad must step down – no ifs, ands, or buts – Secretary of State Kerry recently said, “It doesn’t have to be on Day One or Month One. There is a process by which all parties have to come together and reach an understanding of how this can best be achieved.”
This turn of events, in which Mr. Putin is calling the shots, should not be surprising. He learned well the lessons of Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea, and Donetsk when his military adventurism went unpunished. He learned quickly that America’s “red lines” are meaningless.
President Obama’s successor will have a lot of repair work to do.