web analytics
August 28, 2015 / 13 Elul, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post


Revolutionary Islamism Is Not America’s Friend

A transcript of an interview with Middle East expert, Barry Rubin.
tahrir march

Originally published at Rubin Reports.

–Do you have anything remotely hopeful to say about the trajectory of the Arab Spring today?

Laugh. Aha! Fishing for optimism. Okay. First, the anti-Islamist opposition in Egypt and Tunisia has coalesced. There’s hope for autonomy for a moderate Kurdish area in Syria. And more people in the West have woken up to the situation and the danger. That’s about it for optimism about the region. I am far more optimistic about Israel’s strategic situation but that’s another issue.

Seriously, though, in Egypt and Tunisia there is a battle and the Islamists face serious opposition. The issue is not to get bound up in the details of the demonstrations but to ask what actual impact this will have. The Islamist timetable for fundamentally transforming their countries is going to be slower though there’s no reason to believe the effort will stop, much less be reversed. Nor will the West rally to the opposition’s support. The moderate democratic forces are very much alone, just as they are in Iran and to a very real extent in Syria, too.

As for Syria, 2013 is probably going to be the year of a rebel victory, even though they might not control the entire country until 2014. So what kind of government is going to rule Syria? It’s an open question but the Muslim Brotherhood is the best bet.

And the Obama Administration, which is still in office, has not changed any of its basic positions on these issues.

–Should the U.S. have some bottom lines to try to influence the upcoming constitutional referendum in Egypt?

Shrug. The Constitution will pass. The U.S. government won’t say a word of criticism or do anything. Thus, the United States has no influence on the referendum. What will happen as the Brotherhood will continue to intimidate the courts and the Egyptian president rules by decree? Will the White House seriously condition aid on the treatment of women and Christians? .Obama is doing the absolute minimum to criticize the new regime which is, let’s face it, now a U.S. client.

–Is there anything we or anyone else the United States can do to help influence things in Egypt?

There’s a lot but nothing will be done. It’s a matter of the Obama Administration’s ideology and policies.

–Is Syria going to use chemical weapons? The U.S. says we’ll take action if they do. What could that look like?

I think that the rebels will capture Aleppo within 3-4 months and Damascus some time in 2013. Then the regime will retreat to the northwest, the world will recognize a rebel regime as ruling the country, and there will be a bloodbath. Expect the Obama Administration to take little or no action. Whether or not the regime uses chemical weapons on a few occasions won’t help it and would probably hasten its fall.

–What happens when Assad goes, one way or another?

It’s very complex because there are so many players: Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, and Druze; Kurds; Brotherhood people, Salafists of many different groups, professional soldiers, warlords, and liberals. A lot of the powerbrokers are local.

Experience generally shows us that the winner is the side that is the best-armed, most organized, knows what it thinks and wants, and perhaps has the most international backing. That’s the Brotherhood.

–It was a brutal November between Israel and Palestinians – how long is the ceasefire likely to hold?

Hamas will escalate at some point in the future and Israel will wait as long as possible to respond. The fact that Egypt doesn’t want another confrontation will postpone that day from, say, six months to three years. We’re probably talking about two to three years for anything big but of course Hamas will attack on a lower level. It’s main incentive, of course, is that it knows ultimately the world will protect it from total defeat by Israel. We’ve actually reached the point, as shown by the last five years, when a repressive terrorist group is kept in power by Western democratic states backing that status quo. Are the Palestinians emboldened by its change in U.N. status? What long term effect does that vote have?

It’s the end of any hope for a peace process. Why should the Palestinians negotiate when they believe they can get whatever they want from the international community? Why should Israel make agreements or concessions when it knows it will get nothing and the world will abrogate the other side’s obligations?

About the Author: Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. See the GLORIA/MERIA site at www.gloria-center.org.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

4 Responses to “Revolutionary Islamism Is Not America’s Friend”

  1. Arthur B. Levy says:

    May all Israel’s and America’s islamist enemies be rejoined with allah hahazzah hadafuk in “paradise” swiftly and soon…

  2. Mark L. Shane says:

    sad but true…so far.

  3. Rc Fowler says:

    Of course Godless Islam is no friend of America–they are even against their own people!

  4. Arie's Pragmatic Politics says:

    America's friend – NO! Obama & Clinton's – YES.

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Swiss Amb. to Iran Giulo Haas presents his credentials to Iranian Pres. Rouhani
‘US and Iranian Cartoon Doves’ Shown Defecating on Bibi by Swiss Amb to Iran
Latest Indepth Stories
Ben Cohen

Corbyn leading the Britain’s Labour Party polls, describes Hamas & Hizbullah as England’s “friends.”

PA Chairman Abbas proudly celebrating with released terrorists.

The convicted murderer was released from Israeli prison with more than two dozen other sociopaths

New Israel Fund

JCF is a donor/supporter of The New Israel Fund which supports BDS & wants IDF soldiers prosecuted

Moshe Feiglin

The ‘Peace Industry’ promotes its adherents; weak leaders, both military & political, is the result

The conundrum for US Labor Zionists: Lobbying for Iran deal while Israel’s Left lobby’s against it.

What does the Torah want from our small nation described as “they who struggle with God & with men”?

Mr. Nadler’s support for the deal is a naked political gift to a president who has defied logic in his quest to reinvent international affairs according to his ideological inclinations.

In practical terms, the proclamation surely makes a compelling argument:

BDS activists are not shy about discriminating against Israelis simply because they are Israelis –

A Federal Ct Judge ordered the PA to post JUST $10 million due to interfering letter from State Dept

Osakwe, like many other students at the CAMERA conference, described an extremely hostile campus environment when it comes to the issue of Israel.

Many people view a letter or manuscript by a chassidic rebbe or the Chofetz Chaim as intrinsically holy.

Key Iran Lobby figures had been major donors to both Biden and Kerry when they were in the Senate,

Abbas’ resignation has now sparked speculation about who will fill his place if and ‎when he leaves

More Articles from Barry Rubin
Youssef Ziedan

The interviewer responds, “There was also Balfour.”

peace_clowns

If the Obama/Kerry peace deal does go through, what would the risks be?

Let me make it plain. There will be mass murder, even genocide in Syria.

A large number of pro-Obama and radical or even anti-Israel cadre are Jews.

Does anyone think the Palestinian Authority will resist daily attacks from Hamas and Fatah radicals?

Secret Service security arrangements were overruled.

The Obama Administration plan is very simple, assuming that everything goes smoothly–which of course it will not.

The less you know about Islam, the better. Ignorance is strength.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/rubin-reports/revolutionary-islamism-is-not-americas-friend/2012/12/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: