Following Iranian threats against Israel over the assassination of the Quds force chief in Damascus (Iran Vows to ‘Punish’ Israel for Attack on Top IRGC Generals in Damascus), there has been peak vigilance in Israel’s security system, especially in the Air Force for the possibility of Iranian revenge.
The IDF spokesman confirmed Thursday morning that in accordance with the assessment of the situation, it was decided to temporarily delay the departures of combat units, stating, “The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed according to need.”
Also on Thursday morning, Israel’s security system began disrupting GPS service in the center of the country and Eilat down south, to impede the capabilities of location-based threats such as drones, missiles, and homing cruise missiles.
Israelis who visit the Haifa area have long since been able to use their GPS-based real-time driving direction apps such as Waze, as Israel is routinely obstructing GPS service around its third-largest city which is under constant Hezbollah rocket threats.
In the Tel Aviv area, the service interruption causes people’s GPS-based program to show their location as Cairo, or Beirut, and users discover that they are navigating through traffic along the Nile or on the Lebanese beach.
IRAN’S DILEMMA
As he has done several times in the past, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has pledged retaliation for the death of his Revolutionary Guard commanders in Monday’s Israeli airstrike on a building adjacent to Iran’s consulate in Damascus. But a response that would match in its ferocity the loss of Iran’s replacement for Quds chief Qasem Soleimani, who was himself assassinated in January 2020, would necessarily force Iran into open confrontation with Israel and it would no longer be able to hide behind its militias that are spread around the Middle East.
Iran faces the peril that a response that would be seen as too feeble could harm its reputation, demoralize its forces, and undermine its proxies, including Hamas. On the other hand, a more assertive retaliation might escalate tensions, leading the Islamic Republic into direct conflict with Israel, and possibly the US, a scenario the regime seeks to sidestep.
In short, by targeting the Iranian terror headquarters in Damascus, Israel has upped the ante, challenging Iran to an all-out war.
On Wednesday, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said “The cowardly efforts by the Zionist regime like the one they carried out in Syria will not save them from defeat. They will of course receive a slap in the face for this move. The Zionist regime’s defeat in Gaza will continue and this regime will approach demise and collapse.”
He said that demonstrations planned for this year’s Quds Day, which will be marked on April 5 on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan, “will mobilize supporters of Palestine not only in Muslim countries but in non-Muslim countries who have been pushing for an end to the Israeli aggression on Gaza.”
“This year’s Quds Day will be an international revolt against the usurper Zionist regime,” the Leader said.
ISRAEL PREPARING FOR A DIFFICULT WAR
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spelled out this challenge, and his words surely reverberated in Tehran:
“The outcome on the battlefield is determined by what you do to the enemy, but also what he does to you. And when we get, if God forbid, we get to such a campaign, the amount of casualties, the amount of damage to our territory should be as small as possible and the amount of damage on their side should be as large as possible. We do not wish for a war in Lebanon. I tell you that such a war will be a difficult challenge for the State of Israel, but it will be a catastrophe for Hezbollah and Lebanon, no less than that, and especially in Beirut and southern Lebanon.”
As to Iran, the DM stated, “We need to be prepared and ready for every scenario and every threat, against enemies nearby and against distant enemies. We will know how to protect the citizens of Israel and we will know how to attack our enemies, and we are committed to be prepared in the IDF, the security system, and the civilian sphere.”
Is it any wonder there has been a run on small generators in Israel since one of the systems expected to collapse under a Hezbollah-Iran attack would be the electric grid, which often collapses under particularly heavy rain?
Ninety days following October 7, Tehran reacted to a suspected Israeli assault in Syria that took out another Iranian commander, by unleashing a series of missiles targeting a supposed Israeli reconnaissance station in northern Iraq. While this strike claimed the lives of several civilians, there were no reports of Israeli casualties. Tehran now faces increased pressure to retaliate more forcefully, given the gravity of the Israeli attack on its outpost in Damascus, which has been compared to a direct assault on Iranian soil.
Thursday being Iran’s Jerusalem Day, the Iranian clandestine police Basij forces and proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen conducted a coordinated naval drill with more than 3,000 variants of traditional wooden vessels and motor boats “in support of the Palestinian Intifada.” It’s not clear how this ragtag assembly could endanger Israeli security and how exactly it would reach Israel’s shore, but this “naval drill” might as well be a metaphor for Iran’s current frustrations.
