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January 30, 2015 / 10 Shevat, 5775
 
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘Netanyahu’

Latest Poll: Likud Back on Top, Arabs Take 4th Place

Friday, January 9th, 2015

In the latest poll, taken by Maariv-Walla, we have the following results:

Likud (Netanyahu): 25

Labor (Herzog-Livni): 24

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 15

Arab List: 11

Kulanu (Kachlon): 10

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 9

UTJ (Litzman-Gafni): 8

Shas (Deri): 6

Meretz (Gal-on): 6

Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman): 6 In the latest poll the Likud is now back on top. Due to their unification, in response to the raised electoral threshold, the united Arab list is likely to become the 4th largest party in the Knesset, though it still remains one of the smaller parties.

Eli Yishai just barely keeps on missing the electoral threshold.

Deri is expected to announce next week that his permanent exit from politics or as head of the Shas party is over, and he’s retaking the reins of the Shas party.

Unless one of the two larger parties can break away and get higher numbers, we still see this ongoing deadlock situation, where everyone is reliant on the smaller parties to form a coalition, is its possible to form a coalition at all.

If Labor and Likud form a national unity government, that will actually provide them a wide range of partners, of course, the government will be even worse than the last one.

With neither Kachlon, Shas, UTJ or Yisrael Beiteinu swearing allegiance to a right-wing coalition, everything is up for grabs.

It appears, in fact, that Labor would have an easier time to form a coalition than Likud with these numbers.

In a second question asked:  between Benjamin Netanyahu and Yitzchak Herzog, 50% believe that Netanyahu is better suited to be Prime Minister, while 25% believe Herzog is better suited for the task.

Feiglin Supporters Preach Likud

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

A Likud activist who a was a strong supporter of outgoing KM Moshe Feiglin posted on his Facebook page Thursday a message encouraging people to stick with the Likud.

Temple Activist Yehuda Glick, who shares with Feiglin the objective of allowing Jews to pray on the Temple Mount, also is staying with the Likud instead of following Feiglin to a new party he wants to form.

Feiglin announced on Monday he is leaving the Likud.

Gidon Ariel, a Likud activist for English speakers, wrote Thursday on Facebook,

As you may know, I have been a Likud activist for over ten years, and many of you are members of the Likud because of my efforts.

I have never hidden the fact that my presence in the Likud is not to be a yes-man to anyone, but to defend the Likud’s stated values as clarified in its constitution, through supporting activists and MKs who carry that banner, speaking for the party in the media, running for office, and other activities.

I now count hundreds of rank and file members and more than a dozen Central committee members as people who respect my recommendations.

I joined the Likud with Moshe Feiglin, and while I am a close friend of his and his inner circle, they all know that the hundreds of people who I signed up to the Likud over the years are “mine,” not “theirs.”…

I continue to believe that the best place that a supporter of Eretz Yisrael can make a significant impact is within the Likud.

I am staying in the Likud, I encourage my friends to stay, and if you aren’t a member yet, I urge you to consider joining.

Ariel formerly lived in Maaleh Adumim and moved to the community of Maaleh Hever in the southern Hebron Hills two years ago.

Earlier this week, Glick delivered a similar message to Ariel’s.

He praised Feiglin’s character and philosophy but added he is staying in the Likud “so that the next elections will have a large party representation.”

Glick is on an “unrealistic” spot on the Likud party list and recently said he is “running” more for symbolic purposes than with any intent to be elected a Knesset Member.

Feiglin’s idea was to sign up thousands of people who used to support the former national religious Mafdal party and form a large block in the Likud, which has said has left its true principles that he represents.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and most senior party leaders never have been happy with Feiglin’s presence and have kept him off a realistic place on the Knesset last until the last elections.

In the party primaries last week, they made enough deals to make sure Feiglin would not return to the Knesset.

 

Netanyahu Asks Citizens to Select Candidates for Reserved Likud Slots [video]

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

Prime Minister Netanyahu has two slots on the Likud list, in guaranteed positions, reserved for whomever he wants to put there.

On his Facebook page, Netanyahu has called on the citizens of Israel to send him their recommendations as to whom they want to see in the Knesset, with the Likud, in those spots.

About as close to direct elections as we’re going to see in the foreseeable future.

Send your candidate suggestions to: Newfaceslikud@gmail.com 

 

Netanyahu Adopts JewishPress Blogger’s Electoral Reform Proposal

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

It isn’t every day that the Prime Minister of Israel adopts an idea proposed by yours truly, first introduced on the pages of JewishPress.com.

Though for the sake of transparency, other MKs have brazenly taken ideas we’ve proposed at the Muqata Think-Tank and then claimed them for their own, and we’ve been told that Netanyahu is also familiar with Jameel’s very successful Scotch whiskey counter-boycott.

On Monday, Prime Minister Netanyahu introduced an electoral reform plan that would “revolutionize” the Israeli multi-party system, and move us over to a two-party system.

The idea is that the party with the most seats would automatically form the government and appoint the Prime Minister, without needing to form a coalition, or go to the President of Israel.

If this sounds familiar to you, it should, because in December I analyzed the problem with our current system, and provided that solution.

In the original article I explained why it would work, and how the idea should be properly implemented.

The JewishPress.com was even kind enough to put one of those Asher Schwartz cartoons on it.

A Solution Within the Existing Framework So what can be done now with what we have?

If Israel wants to stay with the parliamentary system, the solution is not as complex as you might think. It requires two steps.

First of all, remove the minimum electoral threshold. Let people vote for whom they want.

The second is, let the head of the largest elected party become the Prime Minister, automatically, with no requirement at all to assemble a coalition to form the government.

I then explain why this will work — because people in Israel vote strategically, they want to get a specific Prime Minister, along with specific platforms or MKs:

The Intended Consequences What do I foresee happening?

Only the die-hards will vote for the small parties. Most everyone else will want to make sure the Prime Minister comes from the biggest party that represents them the closest.

We would see a lot of parties consolidating automatically.

There will be a natural push to make sure the Likud or Labor becomes the biggest party.

Unfortunately, Netanyahu seems to have left out an incredibly important component of the idea – removing the minimum electoral threshold.

And that reminds me of the other half-baked change he made in 1996 — introducing direct elections for the Prime Minster, but without simultaneously introducing it for the Knesset too.

Removing the minimum threshold is critical for my idea to work properly – and Mr. Netanyahu, I know you’re reading this, so pay attention… .

If Israel ends up with a binary-based majority system, where you vote for a party and not individuals, and there are only two parties in the Knesset, you will have implemented a tyranny of democracy onto Israel. For four years the winner will run roughshod over the loser, and it will always be win-lose; the opposition might as well not even show up for work.

For democracy to work properly, citizens need an effective opposition capable of opposing the majority, at least in the worst case scenarios.

It’s important to remember, unlike the U.S., Israel doesn’t have truly separate executive and legislative branches, with the checks and balances that brings. Instead, Israel has a legislative branch whose members also make up the executive branch.

In Netanyahu’s version of my idea, if Labor (or whatever they call themselves) won and wanted to implement another Disengagement or Oslo 5, there would be no way to stop it in Netanyahu’s binary-based Knesset, as Labor would always have an automatic majority.

Nor could there even be a legislature vs. executive conflict to fight it out; in Netanyahu’s version it simply can’t happen.

The other problem is that by forcing people to vote A or B, thereby guaranteeing only A and B get into the Knesset, a significant enough percent of Israeli society will not be represented. You will be disenfranchising segments of the population.

Voting levels will drop as people see no reason to vote for a party that can ignore them, knowing there is no alternative.

By removing the threshold, you don’t exclude people who don’t fit into category A or B.

This will have two consequences, both incredibly important:

1) You don’t need a 61 vote majority for most run-of-the-mill legislation to pass, so having a few small parties won’t make a difference on most votes.

But on more important issues, the society changing ones, you do not want to give an automatic pass to the biggest party (think Oslo, Disengagement) – YOU WANT THEM TO WORK HARD FOR IT before they can throw you out of your home.

2) By allowing the small 1 or 2 man parties to be get in, you create a real reason for the big parties to pay attention to the individual sectors internally.

If the Likud knows that the Israeli-Arabs and Hareidim (just to name two obvious examples) may vote for an Israeli-Arab or Hareidi party instead of them and they will get into the Knesset, the big parties will make sure that Israeli-Arabs and Hareidim are included on their party’s list and paid attention to, to get and keep that sector’s vote.

I highly recommend you read my original analysis of the election idea, and the implementation.

And Mr. Prime Minister – I am available for consultation – you know how to reach me.

New Update: Hotovely Behind by 55 Votes but Likud May Order Total Recount

Sunday, January 4th, 2015

7:30 AM:  Knesset Member Tzipi Hotovely has fallen behind Avi Dichter by 55 votes for the 20th place on the Likud list of candidates during a partial recount, but the number is not final. In addition, the Likud party is considering whether to order a full recount of the votes in last week’s primary elections.

10:51 PM: Hotovely has taken the lead over Dichter by several votes in the recount that still is not final. If she holds the lead, she will be in the 20th place and virtually guaranteed to return to the Knesset.

MK Hotovely appealed to a Likud party committee Sunday for a recount of 15 ballot boxes where there are serious questions of a correct tally in last week’s primaries that left her in the 26th place on the Likud list of candidates.

The Likud is weathering serious embarrassment over the fact that only two women, Miri Regev and Gila Gamaliel, were nominated to realistic places on the Likud ticket.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu wants Hotovely back in the Knesset, and if reports – unconfirmed but from highly reliable sources – are correct, he can thank her for helping dump MK Moshe Feiglin to an unrealistic spot.

Netanyahu has the option of placing Hotovely in a guaranteed spot reserved for a woman if the recount does not bump her up five places in place of Avi Dichter, who was ahead of her by only 754 votes before the recount erased the gap.

Aides to Hotovely said “people voted but their votes were not counted.”

Among other problems in the tally, 400 votes from Judea and Samaria are missing, and in one community in the Galilee, 200 voters were cast but 250 were counted.

In Netivot, one of the seven polling stations did not come up with a single vote for Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, who was in the top five at the end of the nationwide count of ballots

The legal adviser to the Likud party said, “Published results are not the final and official count.”

Hotovely is extremely popular among the national camp and especially in Judea and Samaria. She also has the advantage of being good-looking, a serious factor  the success of many politicians all over the world.

Her image of a right-winger does not compare with that of Feiglin, who for years has been the black sheep of the Likud party. Netanyahu and the Likud mayor of Modi’in engineered behind the scenes to get rid of him.

Is Dahlan Bibi’s Secret Weapon to Rein Abbas In?

Sunday, January 4th, 2015

Mohammed Dahlan, one of the PLO’s former strong men, reportedly met with a senior Israeli government official in Europe — twice. The rumor is that he met with FM Avigdor Liberman. (Update: New rumors are saying it was a different senior Arab figure and not Dahlan, and Mossad officials were in attendance).

PM Netanyahu has said that the meeting was not authorized by him.

But maybe it was, and maybe this is Bibi’s shot across the Palestinian Authority’s bow.

Mahmoud Abbas is terrified that Dahlan will make a comeback and kick him out. But one of the only realistic ways that could actually happen is with Israeli support.

As Abbas threatens to go to the ICC (and opening himself up to counter-suits, be damned), Bibi may be making it clear to him that Abbas’s job and life depends on Israel’s good graces.

Withholding tax money is a temporary measure — getting replaced with Dahlan — that’s forever.

Likud Beats Labor-Livni as Lieberman Sinks in New Polls

Friday, January 2nd, 2015

The Likud party has sailed past the Labor-Livni party in a new poll taken after early returns in the Likud primary elections Thursday night pointed to a more centrist list of candidates.

The survey for Walla! News by Teleseker (TNS) also shows that the Yisrael Beitenu party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, has suffered sharp losses following the suspected bribe scandal revealed by police last week.

With ideological right-winger Moshe Feiglin off a realistic place on the Likud list of candidates, the Likud came up with 26 projected seats in the Knesset, while Labor-Livni remained stuck with 23.

However, an Israel Radio poll taken after the Likud primary elections still puts Labor-Livni one seat ahead of the Likud.

The TNS poll revealed that 40 percent of the respondents think that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is the best man to lead the government, and only 24.3 percent gave their support for Yitzchak Herzog, chairman of the Labor party, and his new sidekick Tzipi Livni. The two Labor party leaders agreed that they will be rotating prime ministers if their party forms the next government, which seems unlikely if the polls don’t change dramatically before the March 17 elections.

The Jewish Home party continues to remain with 16 projected Knesset Members in all polls, one-third more than it had in the outgoing Knesset.

A Globes poll taken before the Likud primaries, like the TNS survey, shows that the Yisrael Beitenu would win only seven seats in the Knesset if elections were held today.

Both the Globes and TNS polls give Shas a new lease on life since the leak earlier this week of a video showing the late Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, who was the first and last word in the Haredi Sephardi party, trashing Aryeh Deri and favoring Eli Yishai, who now heads his own party.

Shas would win seven seats in the Knesset, according to TNS, and six according to the Globes poll, while Yishai would come up with nothing, according to both polls.

The standing of Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid, and Kulanu, the new party founded by former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, remain virtually unchanged, with each one  projected to win nine or ten Knesset seats.

Both polls give the left-wing Meretz party seven seats.

The bottom line is that Netanyahu will form the next government, and the Opposition may be even weaker than before.

The more that the merged Labor-Livni party cannot make headway, the more that Kahlon will mind his Ps and Qs to make sure he can get what he wants out of joining a coalition led by the Likud.

However, at this stage, a coalition of Likud, Jewish Home, Kahlon and Yisrael Beitenu still leaves Netanyahu four seats shy of a majority.

His choices are either or both of the Haredi parties because it is difficult to see Lapid and Netanyahu working together. If Lapid suddenly starts distancing himself from Labor and begins talking about the importance of Jews in Judea and Samaria, it would mean his ego finally is deflated, which would be the eighth wonder of the world.

But today’s polls are not the last word, and I am not going out on a long or weak limb to predict that Jewish home, headed by Naftali Bennett, will pick up more seats at the expense of Likud, Kahlon and possibly Yisrael Beitenu.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/likud-tops-labor-livni-and-lieberman-sinks-in-new-polls/2015/01/02/

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