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March 6, 2015 / 15 Adar , 5775
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘Likud’

New Poll Shows All Parties Going Full Blast in Neutral

Thursday, January 29th, 2015

The oddest result of a month of polls is that there has been almost absolutely no change in the numbers.

The weekly Rafi Smith poll published Thursday night reveals that all parties are more or less stagnant and that national religious voters favoring the new Yachad party headed by Eli Yishai may be wasting their votes.

The new party has been on the edge of winning the minimum number of votes to enter the Knesset, but the Smith poll leaves Yachad under the radar. If polls in the next two weeks do not clearly show that the party has enough backing to win Knesset representation, voters are likely to abandon the sinking ship in favor of the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party.

Labor-Livni, running under the banner of the “Zionist Camp” party, would win 25 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today, according  to the Smith survey. The number is unchanged from last week’s survey.

Similarly, the Likud party, headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, would win 24 seats, followed by Bayit Yehudi with 16, one more than last week.

Next in line are Yesh Atid, whose chairman is Yair Lapid, with nine seats, and Shas, headed by Aryeh Deri with eight Knesset Members. Both parties’ support is unchanged from last week.

Kulanu (All of Us) headed by Moshe Kahlon won enough backing for eight seats, one less than last week.

Yehadut HaTorah (United Torah Judaism), the Ashkenazi Haredi party, gained one seat and now has eight projected MKs. Both Meretz and Yisrael Beiteinu lost one seat and are down to five,

The joint Arab list of parties won 12 seats, one more than in the previous poll.

The changes of one seat up or down are relatively insignificant given the margin of error in surveys.

Pollsters insist there is a large bloc of undecided voters, but if that is the case, they appear to be decidedly undecided.

No matter how you spin the  numbers, the results still show that Labor-Livni, or the Zionist Camp if you prefer the official name, have no chance of forming a government.

One Jewish Press report last week suggested that the Arab parties are “natural partners” for a left-wing coalition and that even if they don’t join the coalition, they would give their support for it in critical votes. Arab parties never have agreed to be part of an Israeli government, and given the fact that several of the Arab MKs are blatantly pro-Palestinian Authority and openly against a Jewish State of Israel, they are not about to change the tradition.

However, it also is unlikely that Kulanu and Yesh Atid would accept demands of the Arab parties if push came to shove and Herzog and Livni were to propose a coalition needing support of Arab MKs.

No party has any momentum. The only likely changes in the strength of the left-wing or right-wing camp will come from lukewarm supporters of Kulanu and Yesh Lapid.

That leaves the undecided voters to make up their minds, and they have a little more than six weeks to do so.

Hotovely Wins Court Appeal against Likud Recount of Ballots

Monday, January 26th, 2015

The sorry saga of Likud party’s slate of candidates for the elections to the Knesset retook another bump on the head Monday afternoon with a Tel Aviv District Court order to halt a recount of ballots that a lower court ordered.

More than 50 percent of the votes had been recounted before the court issued its ruling today.

The court ruled that the judicial system had no right to interfere in the Likud party’s court ruling concerning the recount.

The appeal to the civil district court was filed by Knesset Member Tzipi Hotovely, who was elected to the 20th place on the list after a party recount found her ahead of challenger and former Cabinet minister and MK Avi Dichter.

Dichter filed and won an appeal to a lower civil court for a complete recount and he is probably will appeal today’s decision to the Supreme Court.

The Likud has a scant three days to meet the Thursday deadline to announce its candidates.

The Likud party manages to make a mess of its primary elections almost every time, but this year was exceptional.

Maybe it has something to do with the Shmittah?

 

Caroline Glick to be Offered Likud Spot

Saturday, January 24th, 2015

PM Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly be offering the reserved spot for women on the Likud list, position #11, to Caroline Glick, according to an Israel Channel 10 report.

If it proves to be true, that’s awesome.

If she says “yes”, even more so.

Glick told The Jerusalem Post, “I have not been offered anything in a formal manner but I am flattered to hear I’m under serious consideration.”

Hotovely Wins ‘Realistic Likud’ Spot but Dichter not Giving Up

Monday, January 19th, 2015

The Likud election committee has ruled in favor of Knesset Member Tzipi Hotovely after a recount of votes in the party primaries elections and decided she won the 20th spot on the Likud list of candidates.

The decision means that former Likud MK and Cabinet minister Avi Dichter is bumped back to the 26th place because the spots in between are reserved for sectorial candidates.

Dichter is not expected to surrender so quickly and probably will appeal to the District Court if the Likud does not re-consider and decide in his favor. He claimed that there are strong suspicions of foul play in the counting of the votes.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu still has the option of choosing Dichter to fill one of the reserved places farther up in the list, a move that would prevent another recount and possibly an even more embarrassing situation.

Hotovely said after the Likud elections committee decision, “I congratulate the committee to do justice for the voters and correct the mishaps that occurred during the election process. I have no doubt that most of the defects in the counting of the votes were a result of human error….

“During my appeal, I emphasized that there is no personal quarrel between me and Dichter, and I am sure he also will be a part of the next Knesset.”

Her victory is likely to boost the Liquid’s appeal among right-wing Likud supporters who are drifting towards the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party.

Likud Runs 3rd behind Herzog-Livni and Jewish Home in Poll of Students

Monday, January 19th, 2015

The Herzog-Livni party, billed as the “Zionist Camp,” and the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party headed by Naftali Bennett would be the two largest parties in Israel if university and college students were voting, according to a poll published by Globes.

The Likud party came in a distant third place, winning only 16 of 120 Knesset seats in a poll of nearly 2,600 students.

The Herzog-Livni combo won 30 seats, and Bennett’s party was only four seats behind.

Bennett topped the list on the question of trust, while Herzog was favored when it comes to social issues, housing and future employment, which are of the utmost concern to students.

Herzog and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu were even-Stephen in the poll that asked who is best suited to be Prime Minister.

Political leaders should pay serious attention to the results because they show that those who soon will be in the forefront of society are tired of slogans, talk and lack of change in a social and political system that is overweight, tired and self-fulfilling.

The lists of candidates of the Jewish Home party and the in the merged Labor-Livni party, even if it is called the “Zionist Camp,” are clearly left-wing and right-wing.

The Likud, under Netanyahu, has tried so hard to be so centrist that it has no clear direction.

Israel’s establishment launched the election campaign by trying to convince the public that Labor-Livni is not leftwing but is a centrist party.

The Labor party primaries killed that hoax with the election of bona fide leftists, including one who wants to divide Jerusalem, to spots that guarantee them a seat in the next Knesset.

Similar, voters in the Jewish Home party made it look like a resurrection of the old National Religious Party, except for the spectacular victory of secularist Ayelet Shaked.

Bennett can make the list a bit more secular but even stronger as a right-wing faction if he exercises his option of choosing a candidate for a top spot and nominates Dani Dayan, a spokesman for Judea and Samaria but not religious.

 

Israeli Anti-Bibi Media turn Four Election Polls into one Lie

Friday, January 16th, 2015

Four pre-election polls published Thursday night and Friday morning show varying results, but two of them reveal that the popularity of Labor-Livni has grown by a solitary seat in the Knesset. Nevertheless, Israel’s establishment media are reporting the trivial news as if there is a rush of support for the left.

Polls are not  meaningless, but when a party registers one seat more or one less from week to week, it is virtually insignificant, numerically as well as statistically when taking into account the margin of error in small samples.

That has not stopped Israel Radio, known by the misnomer in English as the Voice of Israel, from promoting the results of this week’s poll as a victory for the “Zionist camp,” a label now claimed by everyone except for Neturei Karta.

Similarly,  three television polls show that the lead party is the “Zionist camp,” whose list of candidates likely to be elected includes those who want to turn over all of Judea and Samaria as well as half of Jerusalem to the Palestinian Authority, which has said that no Jew will be allowed to live there.

The same poll trumpeted by Israel radio also shows that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has a 4 percentage lead over Labor party leaders Yitzchak Herzog and Tzipi Livni when voters are faced with the question of who should be Prime Minister. However, Rafi Smith, who carried out the poll, said this is insignificant because of the margin of error, which apparently does not apply to results in favor of the left.

But that was the secondary headline.

The big news, according to Israel Radio, is that Herzog-Livni is now leading the Likud party by two seats instead of one.

The gap is 2, 4 and 1 in three polls on television channels 2, 10 and 1.

More significant is that Herzog-Livni still have no chance to form a coalition government without an ungodly collection of Meretz and Yisrael Beiteinu or Yisrael Beiteinu and Haredi parties.

After adding up all the numbers, the picture has not changed from last week or even last month: There are two camps: the anti-Netanyahu parties of Labor-Livni, Meretz and Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid; and the pro-Netanyahu camp of the Likud and the Jewish Home, which according to all polls is holding stable with 16-17 mandates.

The most significant changes in the numbers relate to Yisrael Beiteinu, which has been in a clear trend of a decline in the past month. The four polls give the party 5, 6 and 7 seats, far less than when the current Knesset was dissolved.

After taking into account small differences in poll results for the other parties, Kulanu, headed by Moshe Kahlon, Yesh Atid, Meretz and Shas are not moving up or down significantly.

Eli Yishai, who split from Shas and formed his own party, still is on the borderline of being shut out of the Knesset.

There are other very significant indications: If Labor-Livni picks up any more seats, it will be at the expense of Meretz or Yesh Atid, and vice-versa. If Kulanu attracts more voters, they likely will move over from Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu and possibly the Likud.

There still are two months left before voters go to the polls, and Israel Radio and most of the television channels will try to convince voters that Herzog and Livni have the best chance to win.

If the combined party comes out on top, President Reuven Rivlin will have little choice but to give it the first crack at forming a government, which brings back to mind the elections five years ago.

Recount Lifts Likud’s Tzipi Hotovely into Almost Certain Re-Election

Friday, January 16th, 2015

Knesset Member Tzipi Hotovely has been put back into a higher spot on the Likud candidate list, making it more likely she will be re-elected following a recount of the votes in the Likud primary elections last week.

Another recount is probable since Hotovely now has a lead of only 11-19 votes over former MK and minister Avi Dichter, who according to the first recount beat Hotovely by 55 votes for the 20th place on the party list.

The next five places on the list are reserved for sectors, regardless of the voting results, meaning that Dichter now is the 26th place.

Likud primary elections almost always never pass without questionable practices and mishaps. This time around, it simply may be that someone doesn’t know how to count, and if that is the case, woe to Israel if the same person becomes the Finance Minister.

The new recount is good news for the Likud because Hotovely is very popular among national religious voters, while Dichter is identified with the classic Likud wheelers and dealers whose ideology blows with the wind and the smell of power.

The entire Hotovely-Dichter see-saw may be superfluous because Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu still has the privilege of choosing one of them as his own preference for the 23rd place on the party list.

However, the way the polls are going, even Hotovely, in the 20th place, cannot be sure of a seat.

Three polls by different Israeli television channels give the Likud between 20 and 25 seats in the Knesset elections, to be held March 17.

If Hotovely holds on to her slim lead, she might be able to attract more voters, all at the expense of the Jewish Home.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/recount-lifts-tzipi-hotovely-into-likud-spot-for-probable-re-election/2015/01/16/

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