web analytics
May 4, 2015 / 15 Iyar, 5775
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘Likud’

With 50% of the Votes Counted, the Likud Pulls Ahead

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

With 50% of the votes counted, the Likud has jumped ahead of the Zionist Union by a whopping 6 seats to around 29 seats.

This may be a temporary blip, and the difference will probably decrease once the remaining votes are counted.

Eli Yishai’s Yachad party is slowly rising, but it isn’t clear yet if he will reach the minimum threshold.

Netanyahu Declares Victory

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

A very happy PM Netanyahu declared victory at the Likud victory party, following the release of the exit poll results from Tuesday’s general elections in Israel.

Netanyahu said that against all the odds, this was a great victory for the Likud, and for the people of Israel.

Netanyahu told his followers that he called all the leaders of the nationalist parties and asked them to join him, and quickly form a government. He declared that he wants to form a strong, stable government.

Netanyahu repeatedly thanked his wife Sara for her support, and for dealing with all the media attacks against her personally.

Yitzchak Herzog (Zionist Union/Labor) said the race is still open.

Still, it appears that the keys to the government lay in the hands of former Likud member Moshe Kachlon and his Kulanu party.

Netanyahu Makes His Phone Calls

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

PM Netanyahu made his call to Minister Naftali Bennett and said he is working to form a nationalist (rightwing) government.

Bennett said this is a victory for the right, even though Bayit Yehudi took a big hit for the Likud.

Netanyahu also called Aryeh Deri.

Avigdor Liberman is refusing to take calls from Netanyahu and Herzog tonight – the same game he played 2 elections ago.

LIVE: Initial Election Results – Who Won, Who Lost…

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

Here are the initial Exit Poll results from the 2015 elections for the 20th Knesset in Israel:

These are not final numbers, which can still change by the morning.

The configuration options assume that everyone goes with their natural partners. Other options is a National Unity government, or that some parties switch sides from their natural partners for a better offer.

It appears that PM Netanyahu is in the best position to form a coalition, but it will be dependent on Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu).

10:01 PM

Side by side comparison of the exit poll results:

Channel 10 2 1 Walla!
Party
Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 27 27 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27 28 27 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13 13 12 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8 8 9 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 12 12 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 9 10 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 6 6 6
Shas (Deri): 7 7 7 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5 5 5 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5 5 5 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0 0 0 0

 

Walla!

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Walla!):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 67

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 53

 

Channel 2

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 28
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 9
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 2):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

 

Channel 10 

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 10):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 56

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 64

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

Chuck Norris Endorses Netanyahu

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

We’re not endorsing Netanyahu. A vote for Bennett is definitely just as good.

But when we saw this Chuck Norris video, we knew had to put it up (or else).

Feiglin Asks PM for Special Permission To Visit Temple Mount

Monday, March 16th, 2015

MK Moshe Feiglin (Likud) sent a special request to Prime Minister Netanyahu, asking for permission to go up to the Temple Mount on Tuesday.

The Prime Minister previously forbade Feiglin from entering the Jewish Holy site.

This Tuesday, Moshe’s son David, who survived a horrendous car crash, is set to get married (Mazel Tov).

Moshe would like to accompany his son up onto the Temple Mount tomorrow, on the day he is to get married, as any other citizen would normally be allowed to do – but at present Moshe is not allowed.

We will update you if Moshe receives the special permission or not from the Prime Minister.

Feiglin letter to go up to Temple Mount

Understand Israeli Elections – Here’s a Primer, Part 1

Friday, March 13th, 2015

The Israeli political system is radically different from the one in the United States. The most obvious differences are that Israel is a parliamentary system with more than 20 potential parties in the mix, unlike just the two standard American parties, the Democrats and the Republicans.

This year 26 parties are vying for positions in the upcoming vote, 11 of which are likely to pass the threshold requirement for becoming part of the next Knesset.

The first step of this year’s Israeli election to determine who makes it into the Knesset at all, then which parties will form the governing coalition, and finally, who will be the prime minister of the state of Israel, takes place next Tuesday, March 17.

The date was set by a formal meeting in early December, of all the then-current Knesset party leaders. Those leaders chose the date for the election to take place in just four months. While four months is a dramatically short campaign period by American standards, Israeli law permits only five months to elapse between the dissolution of one Knesset and the election for the next.

Election day is a big deal in Israel. Virtually everything, except the polling places, is closed. Free transportation is provided for any voter who needs it to reach their regular polling place.

On March 17,  all eligible voters – every Israeli citizen over 18 years of age – can vote. That includes Arabs, Muslims, Christians and Jews, men and women, able-bodied and those with disabilities. There is no voter registration system; every citizen is automatically registered once they turn 18. Nearly six million Israelis are eligible to vote in this year’s election.

MARCH 17: THE BALLOT BOX

Eligible Israeli voters go to polling places in their neighborhoods. There are more than 10,000 polling places throughout this tiny country. Most open at 7:00 a.m. and remain open until 10:00 p.m.

Turnout for Israeli elections has been declining for years, but it’s still well over 60 percent. In the U.S., turnout has been in the low-to mid 50 percent zone since the early 1970’s.

Before entering the voting booth, each voter is handed an envelope. Inside the booth is a tray, with different strips of paper. Each strip of paper includes the name and symbol of a party. The voter chooses the slip of paper which has the name and symbol of the party for whom they wish to vote, and puts that piece of paper in the envelope they were handed. After leaving the booth the voter places the envelope with their chosen party slip into the ballot box.

Israeli voters choose parties, not individual candidates, which, among other things, means their national representation is ideological, not geographic, and the vote is proportional, meaning the 120 Knesset seats are divvied up in proportion to each party’s percentage of the total vote. There is a minimum threshold for a party to meet before it can sit in the Knesset. That minimum is currently set at 3.25 percent of the total votes cast, which translates into four seats.

PHASE TWO: HORSE TRADING

Once the polling places close and the ballots are counted, the second phase of the Israeli election begins, the one frequently described as “horse trading.” In order to have the right to form a government and choose the prime minister, a group of parties needs to be able to control a majority of the Israeli Knesset, the single chamber Israeli legislature. The Knesset has 120 seats.

With so many parties competing, no single one has ever attained that magic number of 61 seats, and it is even likely that three or more parties need to agree to work together to form the ruling coalition. Therefore, parties which have been thrashing each other in public now start eying each other as potential dance partners, trying to figure out with whom they can create a functioning coalition to run the government.

This coalition building phase is a little bit like when, after a brutal primary in the U.S., the second place vote getter and the winner frequently kiss, make up, and agree to live with each other as their party’s candidate for president and vice president during the general election. But several different parties and lots of individual members of those parties are all added into the Israeli decision making mix. It isn’t easy.

But first let’s back up. How were the individuals on each party’s list chosen?

     PARTY LISTS

As soon as the Knesset is dissolved, either because it reached its four year expiration date, or because it is dispersed for some other reason (such as happened in the current case, when Prime Minister Netanyahu asked the Knesset to disperse and the Knesset unanimously agreed, on Dec. 8), the parties begin internal negotiations to determine who will be on their official “list,” and in what order. The higher up on the list one is, the greater the likelihood of actually making it into the Knesset.

There are various systems for determining who are included, and where they are placed, on each party’s list, including voting by the party leadership. Additional factors are taken into consideration, such as whether enough women are included, whether there are security experts represented, whether certain ethnic minorities will be included.

     PRIME MINISTER SELECTION

How does one of the party members then become the prime minister? Israel’s president, currently former Knesset member Ruby Rivlin, selects the member of Knesset believed to have the best chance of forming a viable coalition government, given the election results. This can take some time until the parties are able to align so that they can govern together.

Some of the horse trading here involves party leaders with high numbers demanding significant ministry positions in exchange for pledging their party’s support. Compare this to the ability of the U.S. president, once elected, then deciding who will become the various cabinet members.

This phase is incredibly complicated. For example, right now at least five different parties will be needed to join together to create a ruling coalition. And it is not as if just the top five vote-getting parties will join together, because of differences in ideology.

For example, the tiny far left Meretz party, which currently is polling at five seats, thought it would be able to create a power bloc by pairing up with the Joint Arab List. The Arab group dashed those hopes, claiming they would not join with “Zionists.”

Another complicating factor is that certain parties have claimed they will not join in a coalition with Netanyahu, and the Likud has ruled out creating a coalition with other parties, including the current frontrunner, the so-called “Zionist Union.” That party is a joining together of the center-left Labor party and Tzipi Livni and her entourage. Livni has changed parties so many times in the past few years most people just refer to this new party as Labor-Livni.

Once finally selected, the prime minister announces the formation of a new Knesset and the offices each minister will hold.

January 29 was the deadline for all parties to submit their lists of candidates. As of that date, the following parties had the following members in the following order (the parties are listed in terms of their most recent polling status):

ZIONIST UNION (1) Isaac Herzog (2) Tzipi Livni (3) Shelly Yachimovich (4) Stav Shaffir (5) Itzik Shmuly (6) Omer Bar-Lev (7) Hilik Bar (8) Amir Peretz (9) Merav Michaeli (10) Eitan Cabel (11) Manuel Trajtenberg (12) Erel Margalit (13) Mickey Rosenthal (14) Revital Swid (15) Danny Atar (16) Yoel Hassan (17) Zuhair Bahloul (18) Eitan Broshi (19) Michal Biran (20) Nachman Shai (21) Ksenia Svetlova (22) Ayelet Nahmias Verbin (23) Yossi Yona (24)Eyal Ben-Reuven (25) Yael Cohen-Paran. The left-center Zionist Union was forged by combining Labor and Tzipi Livni and her followers, has very recently been polling at between 20 and 24 seats.

LIKUD: (1) Benjamin Netanyahu (2) Gilad Erdan (3) Yuli Edelstein (4) Yisrael Katz (5) Miri Regev (6)Silvan Shalom (7) Moshe Ya’alon (8) Ze-ev Elkin (9) Danny Danon (10) Yariv Levin (11) Benny Begin (12) Tzachi Hanegbi (13) Yuval Steinitz (14) Gila Gamliel (15) Ophir Akunis (16) David Bitan (17) Haim Katz (18) Jackie Levy (19) Yoav Kish (20) Tzipi Hotovely (21) Dudu Amsalem (22) Miki Zohar (23) Dr. Anat Berko (24) Ayoob Kara (25) Nava Boker. Likud has been polling at between 26 and 20 seats, most recently declining.

YESH ATID (1) Yair Lapid (2) Shai Piron (3) Yael German (4) Meir Cohen (5) Yaakov Peri (6) Ofer Shelah (7) Haim Yalin (8) Karine Elharrar (9) Yoel Razvozov (10) Alize Lavie (11) Mickey Levy (12) Elazar Stern (13) Pnina Tamano-Shata (14) Boaz Toporovsky (15) Ruth Calderon. Yesh Atid focuses on social and economic issues and was brand new for the last elections. Yesh Atid has been polling at around 10 – 13 seats.

JOINT ARAB LIST (1) Aiman Uda (Hadash) (2) Masud Ganaim (Islamic Movement (3) Ahmad Tibi (UAL-Ta’al) (4) Aida Touma-Sliman (Hadash (6) Abd al-Hakim Hajj Yahya (Islamic Movement) (7) Haneen Zoabi (Balad) (8) Dov Khenin (Hadash) (9) Taleb Abu Arar (Islamic Movement). The Joint Arab party has been polling between 11 and 13 seats.

BAYIT YEHUDI (1) Naftali Bennett (2) Uri Ariel (3) Ayelet Shaked (4) Rabbi Eli Ben-Dahan(5) Nissan Slomiansky (6) Yinan Magal (7) Moti Yogev (8) Bezalel Smotrich (9) Shuli Mualem (10) Avi Wortzman (11) Nir Orbach (12) rabbi Avi Rontzki (13) Orit Struck (14) Anat Roth (15) Ronen Shoval. Bayit Yehudi, the religious Zionist party, has recently been polling between 10 and 14 seats.

KULANU (1) Moshe Kahlon (2) Yoav Galant (3) Eli Alalouf (4) Michael Oren (5) Rachel Azaria (6)Tali Ploskov (7) Dr. Yifat Shasha-Biton (8) Eli Cohen (9) Roy Folkman (10)Merav Ben-Ari. Kulanu is a brand new party created by its number one on the list. Kahlon is understood to have destroyed the cell phone monopoly in Israel. Kahlon has not ruled out joining with Likud or Zionist Union. His determination to be the next finance minister is well-known. Kulanu has been polling around 8 – 10 seats.

SHAS (1) Aryeh Deri (2) Yitzhak Cohen (3) Meshulam Nahari (4) Yakov Margi (5) David Azoulay (6) Yoav Ben-Tzur (7) Yitzhak Vaknin (8) Avraham Michaeli. Shas (the Sephardi Haredi party which has experienced severe upheaval since its leader, Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef’s death in Oct. 2013) has been polling pretty consistently at 7 seats.

UNITED TORAH JUDAISM (1) Yaakov Litzman (2) Moshe Gafni (3) Meir Porush (4) Uri Maklev (5)Menachem Eliezer Moses (6) Israel Eichler (7) Yaakov Asher (8) Eliezer Sorotzkin. UTJ, the Ashkenazi charedi party, has recently been polling between 6 and 7 seats.

YISRAEL BEITEINU (1) Avigdor Lieberman (2) Orly Levy-Abekasis (3) Sofa Landver (4) Ilan Shohat (5) Sharon Gal (6) Hamad Amar (7) Robert Ilatov. Yisrael Beiteinu is identified with the Russian immigrants and is considered right wing, although it does not believe in annexing Judea and Samaria. It has been polling at 5 seats for quite some time.

MERETZ (1) Zehava Gal-on (2) Ilan Gilon (3) Issawi Frej (4) Michal Rozin (5) Tamar Zandberg (6) Mossi Raz (7) Gaby Lasky. Meretz, which is left on social and Arab-Israeli issues, has been polling pretty consistently at around 5 seats.

YACHAD (1) Eli Yishai (2) Yoni Chetboun (3) Michael Ayash (4) Baruch Marzel (5) Sasson Trebelsi. Yachad, only recently created as a split off from Shas, has been polling between 4 – 6 seats.

Other parties which are not expected to reach the threshold number of votes include the Green Party, the Green Leaf (legalize marijuana) Party, Rent with Honor Party, the Economics Party, a Charedi Women’s Party (called Ubezchutan) and even something called the Pirate Party. Gotta love Israelis.

JewishPress.com will post another primer once the elections reach the second phase: assembling the ruling coalition.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/understand-israeli-elections-heres-a-primer-part-1/2015/03/13/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: